Even before Joe Flacco was announced as Miami’s starting quarterback against the Jets in New Jersey, money started showing on the Dolphins at the South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas.
“And I don’t know why, but money’s definitely showing on the Bears, too,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews told Gaming Today. The Bears host the Ravens on Sunday.
“Also, the Chiefs (at home vs. Dallas). We’ll see,” said the oddsdmaker.
The most early interest from bettors in Week 11 has been on the Cardinals’ afternoon game at the Seahawks. There are questions around both quarterbacks, which has become a league theme.
After undergoing finger surgery and missing three games, Russell Wilson returned for Seattle last Sunday and played poorly in a loss at Green Bay.
“The way he looked, it’s hard to have much faith in him,” says Andrews. “He probably came back too soon. They originally said he’d be out six weeks, but he came back in three. He’s a warrior, but I’m not sure that was the best decision.”
SuperBook USA executive vice president Jay Kornegay, though, believes the point spread swinging from the Seahawks as 2-point favorites on look-ahead lines to Cardinals -2.5 is curious.
“I think the number is way too high,” he says. “I think it should be closer to pick-em, because if (Arizona quarterback Kyler) Murray has a high-ankle sprain —which is how it was reported — that takes more than a couple of weeks to get over.”
Here’s a look at four games on the NFL Week 11 card.
Cardinals (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) at Seahawks (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS)
Betting line (BetMGM): Cardinals -2.5, Total 48.5
Wilson crushed a normal return timetable and received medical clearance to play in Green Bay. The Seahawks were belted 17-0, shut out for the first time since 2011.
“People believed all (Seattle’s) ills would be cured, but that certainly wasn’t the case,” says Andrews. “Arizona has a lot of question marks, too. But I think people have a lot more faith in Arizona than they do the way Seattle is playing.”
In fact, the Cardinals’ away points-per-play rate of 0.507 is second in the NFL, to Cincinnati’s 0.521.
One of the largest wagers the SuperBook took in the first few days of the week was on Arizona, oddly not until the team hit 2.5-point-favorite status. Murray did practice Wednesday.
“The football-educated money believes Murray is going to play,” says Kornegay. “That’s why we’ve seen all this Arizona money.”
Kornegay believes Murray’s high-ankle sprain makes him 85-percent effective.
“He obviously won’t be able to run like he normally does, or scramble. And the Seahawks are no joke in Seattle,” says Kornegay of the Seahawks’ home points-per-play defensive rate of 0.271, fourth-best in the NFL.
“With Wilson having a pretty rough game last week, I’m pretty sure they’ll be focused this week with the Cardinals coming in.”
That total has moved downward, to 48.5 from 50.5, reflecting Seattle’s horrific last Sunday. Only one of the Seahawks’ nine games has gone ‘over’ the total.
“Seattle wasn’t able to move the ball, and that Cardinals defense is very good,” says Kornegay. “But I think the Packers’ defense is better.”
Cowboys (7-2 AU, 8-1 ATS) at Chiefs (6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS)
Betting Line (Caesars): Chiefs -2.5, Total 56
This total has eked up from 52, and Kornegay attributes some of that to renewed confidence in Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes has led K.C. to three consecutive wins, throwing for a season-best 406 yards last week in a 41-14 thumping of the Raiders in Las Vegas.
“(The Chiefs) are back from the dead,” says Kornegay. “Mahomes looked very patient, very calm the entire game. He didn’t force it. He took what the defense gave him, and he did it throughout the whole game.
“Maybe he and (coach Andy) Reid have made those adjustments, finally. We all saw it for weeks, where they weren’t able to make those adjustments. Certainly, they made some against Las Vegas.”
Andrews points to the Cowboys’ bizarre recent behavior, posting only two late touchdowns to make a 30-16 home defeat to Denver two weeks ago seem palatable, then beating the Falcons 43-3 last week.
“Everyone was betting Atlanta, all the sharp guys had Atlanta,” says Kornegay. “Shows you how opinions can change quickly in this league.”
Steelers (5-3-1 SU, 3-6 ATS) at Chargers (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS)
Betting line (PointsBet): Chargers -6, Total 47
The Chargers opened as 3-point favorites at some properties, but the line took off in the wake of the Steelers’ list of questionable players.
Andrews, a Steelers fan with deep Pittsburgh roots, nearly winces when he reads the list, topped by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who has yet to be cleared from the COVID list. Linebacker TJ Watt (hip/knee), free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (COVID), and cornerback Joe Haden (broken fibula) are out.
Reserve quarterback Mason Rudolph went 30-for-50 for 242 yards, in last week’s tie against Detroit.
The Chargers have a deep list of wounded, too. For those reasons, Andrews kept the game off his board until hanging Chargers -6 on Thursday.
“I have no idea what to do with all that,” he said before posting the number. “… Not that the Chargers have been playing great. They haven’t. But it’s got to be a minimum of 6, probably more like 6.5, 7, if (so many Steelers) are all out.”
The Chargers and Steelers are a combined 12-5-1 to the ‘under’.
Lions (0-8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Browns (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS)
Betting line (Caesars): Browns -11.5, Total 43.5
This total had been shaved from 46.5 during early wagering. Lions quarterback Jared Goff (oblique) hasn’t played well, and he’s questionable for Sunday.
Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (knee) threw for only 73 yards last week in a 45-7 defeat in New England.
“The Browns are just awful,” says Kornegay. “There are some injuries … on both sides (of this game), the quarterbacks are not 100 percent. We’ve seen a drop based on the current injury report.”
Also read: NFL Week 11 early moves | NFL Week 11 totals | Super Bowl 2022 odds
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