The NFL Week 12 late slate features a trio of games. Oddsmakers initially installed the Chargers as a 1.5-point favorite against the Broncos, but the line has inched upward to as high as 3 at some books.
LA Chargers (6-4, 5-5 ATS) at Denver Broncos (5-5, 5-5 ATS)
Time: 4:05 p.m. EST
BetMGM Line: Chargers by 3 (47.5)
The skinny: The LA Chargers will be catching a weather break when they face the Broncos in Denver in an AFC West clash with the temperature in the mid-60s.
Facts: Last Sunday, the Chargers squandered a 27-10 fourth-quarter lead at home against Pittsburgh before rallying for a 41-37 victory.
But blowing leads is commonplace for LA. In the Chargers’ Week 8 game last season in Denver, they gave up a 24-3 third-quarter edge and fell to the Broncos and QB Drew Lock 31-30, the biggest second-half lead squandered in the league the past two seasons. Then, eight weeks later, LA coughed up a 16-3 advantage to Denver before rallying for a 19-16 triumph.
The Broncos were one of five teams to open the season 3-0, but have gone 2-5 since and have slipped to the 12th in the AFC standings. Last season, six of the seven teams to start 3-0 reached the playoffs.
The Chargers had a 98-yard TD drive last week, reported to be their longest scoring march in four years. Two weeks earlier though, they also had a 98-yard drive but lost the ball on downs vs. Philadelphia.
Analysis: The Broncos’ offense has been ripped for its lackluster play in the red zone, scoring TDs on only half their penetrations there and reaching the end zone on only 11 of 19 first-and-goal possessions. But luckily the Broncos are playing the Chargers, whose league-worst rush defense has been a big reason foes have scored touchdowns on 19 of 23 first-and-goal scenarios.
And what are the chances ex-Charger RB Melvin Gordon has a big game against the team that wouldn’t give him a big deal two years back?
Chargers at Broncos Pick
Broncos 27, Chargers 23
NFL · Sun (11/28) @ 4:25pm ET
|LA Rams||at||GB Packers|
|Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin|
LA Rams (7-3, 4-6 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (8-3, 9-2 ATS)
Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
Caesars line: Rams by 1 (47.5)
The skinny: For the first time since 2018, the Packers will be underdogs at Lambeau Field when they take on the Rams in temps that are expected to hit freezing as the game progresses. There’s no snow in the forecast, though.
Facts: The temperature was much the same two weeks ago when Green Bay played host to Seattle, winning 17-0. Rams QB Matt Stafford, who spent his career in Detroit’s dome until this season, last played in freezing weather in the 2018 season finale in Green Bay. The temperature at kickoff was 25 degrees. His Lions won 31-0 vs. the Packers’ JV.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers already had a toe fracture before taking the field last week in Minnesota, and he said afterward it got stepped on during the game and that it feels worse than turf toe. But he still threw for four TDs without an interception in a last-second 34-31 loss to the Vikings.
The teams last tangled in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs at Lambeau, with Green Bay winning 32-18 in weather conditions almost identical to this week’s forecast. Packers RB Aaron Jones led the ground attack with 99 yards, but he’s questionable now (knee).
Analysis: The Rams, coming off a bye, already had one of the fiercest pass rushes in the league before they acquired Von Miller from the Broncos three weeks ago in a blockbuster trade. So, it’s a terrible time for the Packers to have this meeting, especially with Jones unlikely to play, with Rodgers hobbled and, last but not least, OLT David Bakhtiari doubtful (knee). Sure, Green Bay is 20-3 SU, 16-7 ATS at home the past three seasons, but this is a different Packers team that probably can’t wait till next week’s bye.
Rams at Packers Pick
Rams 27, Packers 20
NFL · Sun (11/28) @ 4:25pm ET
|MIN Vikings||at||SF 49ers|
|Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California|
Minnesota Vikings (5-5, 6-4 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (5-5, 4-6)
Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
PointsBet Line: 49ers by 3.5 (49)
The skinny: Dirt was being piled on both teams’ playoff hopes only a couple of weeks ago before they both rebounded with two victories.
Facts: San Francisco opened last week’s 30-10 win at Jacksonville with a 20-play, 87-yard drive that lasted 13:05, reportedly the longest in the league over the past 20 years. Alas, the 49ers only got a field goal out of it.
This marks the Vikings’ second West Coast trip in three weeks. They defeated the Chargers 27-20 as a 3-point underdog in Week 10. Minnesota has the league’s seventh-ranked offense, averaging 387 yards a game.
Analysis: Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins, who somewhat miraculously has only two INTs in 10 starts, gets to face a 49ers defense that’s tied for second fewest interceptions with four. That would seem to be a source of comfort for Cousins. And as long as standout RB Dalvin Cook, the league’s fifth-leading rusher, isn’t listed on the injury chart, he’s a threat to hit 100 yards.
And the Vikings’ top receivers were hot last week, with Justin Jefferson making eight grabs for 169 yards and Adam Thielen eight for 82. Together they have 14 TDs. Skol!
Vikings at 49ers Pick
Vikings 31, 49ers 21
Last week: 7-8 ATS, 11-4 SU
Season total: 78-84-3 (.481) ATS; 100-64-1 (.610) SU SU
Also read: NFL Week 12 odds and early moves | Week 12 totals