NFL Week 12 Odds: Dolphins Look To Upset Panthers On Sunday’s Early Slate

Seven games are scheduled on the NFL Week 12 early slate Sunday with all contests kicking off at 1:00 p.m. EST. The Panthers-Dolphins game in Miami leads the way for our previews.

Here are the odds and betting analysis for all Week 12 games:

The Panthers were 1.5-point favorites early in the week with the line leveling out at 2 at most shops.

Carolina Panthers (5-6, 5-6 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (4-7, 5-6 ATS)

FanDuel Line: Panthers by 2 (41.5)

The skinny: The Panthers will attempt to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive against the resurgent Dolphins.

Facts: Carolina QB Cam Newton has lost his past nine starts with the Panthers (1-8 ATS), with eight covering the 2018-19 seasons and one last week at home to underdog Washington and ex-Panthers backup Taylor Heinicke.

Miami has won three in a row (3-0 ATS, too) since a seven-game losing streak, tied for the third longest current win streak in the league.

Miami is ranked 29th on defense, allowing 382.8 yards a game, but over the past three weeks that norm has been 310. Over the course of the season, that would rate third overall.

Analysis: Until Newton shows he’s over his past shoulder issues and can throw the deep ball, the Panthers are going to be an unlikely success story. As Bill Parcells would say, “You are what your record says you are.” Or something like that.

Miami, meanwhile, is showing life much like last year when it was 10-6 and lost out on a playoff berth by one game. With the long-dormant running game showing a spark with Myles Gaskin (89 yards last week in 24-17 win over NYJ), the Dolphins are worth the risk here.

Panthers at Dolphins Pick

Dolphins 21, Panthers 16

The Falcons opened as a 1-point choice, and the line has slowly moved up to 2 in most locations.

Atlanta Falcons (4-6, 4-6 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8, 3-7 ATS)

DraftKings Line: Falcons by 2 (45.5)

The skinny: Two teams that have had a lot of trouble scoring of late meet with little realistically at stake in the standings.

Facts: The Falcons are a favorite despite having been being outscored 68-3 in back-to-back losses the past two weeks to Dallas and New England, respectively. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has averaged 10.5 points its past four outings.

Surviving members of the 1962 Buffalo Bills will be popping corks if Jacksonville loses, ensuring that they remain the only team in pro history to start 0-5 and finish with a winning record (7-6-1).

Atlanta backup QB Josh Rosen is off the charts this season, literally, with a 0.0 passer rating thanks to two completions and two INTs on 11 throws, including a pick-six vs. the Patriots.

Jags RB James Robinson (questionable, heel/knee), whose 5.1 rushing average is third best among running backs with 500-plus ground yards, had a season-low norm of 2.4 on 12 carries last week.

Analysis: With all-purpose Falcons star Cordarrelle Patterson limited in drills Thursday even after the extra rest, that means the team’s leading rusher and second-leading receiver could miss his second straight game, joining WR Calvin Ridley (mental health care hiatus) on the sideline.

In three of the four games Ridley missed, Atlanta had 133 or fewer passing yards. That’s significant considering that before that stretch the Falcons hadn’t had even one game that low since 2018. And on defense, a team with the fewest sacks probably isn’t going to cause Jax QB Trevor Lawrence many headaches. He hasn’t thrown an INT his past three outings.

Looks like the old-time Bills will have to wait until at least next week to celebrate.

Falcons at Jaguars Pick

Jaguars 20, Falcons 16

This line hasn’t moved since it opened at 2.5 in favor of Houston.

NY Jets (2-8, 2-8)  at Houston Texans (2-8, 5-5 ATS)

FanDuel Line: Texans by 2.5 (44.5)

The skinny: Rookie QB Zach Wilson returns to the Jets in the nick of time to play in their game at Houston.

Facts: Wilson, the second overall pick in the 2021 draft, has missed the past four games with a knee injury. In his absence, Mike White (three times) and Joe Flacco (once) have started, but both are out this week (COVID). Josh Johnson, who had 317 yards and three TD passes in a mid-game relief role three weeks ago, has been promoted from the practice squad.

The Jets have a league-high minus-15 turnover differential. Houston is at plus-2 after forcing five turnovers (and committing none) last week in its 22-13 win at Tennessee as a 10-point underdog.

Houston is a favorite in a game for the first time since Week 16 last year. The Jets haven’t been a favorite since facing Buffalo’s JV team in the 2019 season finale.

In the Texans’ win last week, they had 190 yards, the fewest for a winning team this season. Houston also holds the all-time record for lowest total yards in a victory with 47 in a 24-6 win at Pittsburgh in 2002.

Analysis: Houston was largely inept on offense last week, netting 7 yards on their final six possessions. The line is likely tilted toward the Texans because of the score of last week’s game not because of their performance.

Even though the Jets will be without leading rusher Michael Carter, who sprained an ankle last week, New York has seen the blossoming of rookie receiver Elijah Moore the past four weeks when the backup QBs were throwing for 347 yards a game. Moore had 11 catches for 141 yards vs. Miami.

Jets at Texans Pick

Jets 26, Texans 20

Philly was a 2.5-point choice to open and now is at 3.5 at most books.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-6, 6-5 ATS) at NY Giants (3-7, 5-5 ATS)

DraftKings Line: Eagles by 3.5 (45)

The skinny: The Giants will be working with a new offensive play caller after ousting Jason Garrett as offensive coordinator.

Facts: The Giants are coming off a MNF loss in Tampa Bay, 30-10, which triggered the coaching shuffle. The good news for NYG, though, is that teams are 13-4 ATS/13-3-1 SU after playing on Monday against a team that played the week before.

The Eagles had won eight in a row in the series before losing 27-17 in Week 10 last year. Philly was only 3-6 ATS in those outings.

NYG’s Freddie Kitchens will handle play-calling duties. In a similar relief role he handled for Cleveland at midseason in 2018, the Browns showed a jump of almost 53 yards a game and went 5-3 in that stretch.

The Eagles have rushed for 200-plus yards in three of their past four games, including 242 last week vs. New Orleans’ then-No. 1-ranked rush defense. In the only game Philly came up short, it was against the LA Chargers. The Chargers give up the most rush yards per game. Go figure.

Analysis: NYG gave up on the running game last week with only 13 carries for 66 yards vs. Tampa Bay. With a new offensive outlook, that will change greatly this week and Saquon Barkley should get his most work this season.

As for the Eagles, they’ll be without one of their top RBs of late, Jordan Howard (knee), which will put a crimp in their running game. NYG should respond this week with a rare enthusiastic effort in front of a home crowd hungry for victory.

Eagles at Giants Pick

Giants 23, Eagles 21

The line opened at 4 for Cincinnati, drifted up to 5 at midweek, and has now largely settled in at 4 again.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1, 4-6 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4, 5-5 ATS)

DraftKings Line: Bengals by 4 (44.5)

The skinny: The Bengals will be seeking their first sweep of the Steelers since 2009 after winning at Pittsburgh 24-10 as a 2.5-point dog in Week 3.

Facts: During the Steelers’ late-season free fall last year, they were 27-17 losers in Cincinnati as a 14.5-point favorite, matching the second biggest upset in the league the past two seasons. And, Bengals workhorse RB Joe Mixon didn’t even play. And neither did QB Joe Burrow.

Cincinnati hasn’t been this big a favorite over Pittsburgh since 2013.

The Bengals stand 16th in third-down conversion percentage this season, but in a 36-10 loss in Pittsburgh in Week 10 last year, they were 0-for-13 on conversion tries, by far the worst day for any team in 2020.

In Pittsburgh’s 41-37 loss in LA to the Chargers on Sunday night, the Steelers rallied from a 17-point deficit to take the lead, only to lose in the closing moments. It was the second-biggest fourth-quarter deficit overcome by a team that went on to lose this season.

Mixon tied a career-high with 30 carries last week, getting 123 yards, in their 32-13 win in Vegas. In seven previous games, he topped out at 18 rushes.

Analysis: The cavalry could be arriving for the Steelers, with the return of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick from the reserve/COVID list, CB Joe Haden (probable) from a foot injury and backup DE Isaiahh Lowdermilk (probable) from a groin injury. And the Steelers are expecting the return of supreme QB harasser T.J. Watt (questionable, hip), who didn’t play in the first meeting between these two teams.

The Steelers seem like a good money-line gamble at about +170.

Steelers at Bengals Pick

Steelers 26, Bengals 16

Another line that opened at 2.5 and moved upward slightly to 3 at most locations.

Tampa Bay Bucs (7-3, 4-6 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (6-5, 7-4 ATS)

Caesars Line: Bucs by 3 (53)

The skinny: Defending champion Tampa Bay will attempt to slow Indy’s midseason charge after an 0-3 start.

Facts: Five teams opened the season by losing their first three games. The Colts have gone 6-2 since, while the others have a cumulative mark of 7-21-1 starting with Week 4.

Bucs receiver Mike Evans, who’s tied with the Rams’ Cooper Kupp for most receiving TDs with 10, is questionable (back). One step worse is WR Antonio Brown (doubtful). For Indy, OLG Quenton Nelson, a first-team All-Pro the past three seasons, is questionable with an ankle injury. In the three early-season games he missed, RB Jonathan Taylor still had two 100-yard games.

The Bucs have the best home mark in the league at 5-0, but are 2-3 on the road, the worst among the eight current division leaders. Indy’s 3-3 at home.

Indy’s 41-15 win in Buffalo was fueled in large part by having an average starting field position at its 47, the best for any team in a game this season.

Analysis: The Bucs’ defense, ranked 10th overall, had widespread injuries earlier this season but is getting healthier. It was so good last week that TB’s foe, the Giants, fired their OC on Monday. Now they’ll face rushing leader Taylor, who had a league season-high 185 ground yards last week against Buffalo’s No. 1 overall defense. But TB’s unit isn’t shabby, allowing a league low 78.4 yards a game and only 3.8 a carry, second best.

And if the Colts are counting on QB Carson Wentz to provide much help, it might be in vain. In four previous games against teams ranked in the top 10 in defensive passer rating, he’s averaged only 5.6 yards a throw and a completion percentage of 56.3. Not good. The Bucs rank 10th.

Bucs at Colts Pick

Bucs 28, Colts 20

The Patriots were only 4.5-point picks to begin the week, but the line has moved to 6.5 and 7 at most books.

Tennessee Titans (8-3, 7-4 ATS) at New England Patriots (7-4, 7-4 ATS)

DraftKings Line: Patriots by 7 (43.5)

The skinny: Patriots coach Bill Belichick will take his third stab at trying to beat the team coached by one of his former players, Mike Vrabel.

Facts: In their first head-to-head, in Vrabel’s rookie season in 2018, the host Titans routed New England 34-10 as a 6-point dog. The next year, Tennessee won a wildcard game 20-13 in New England as a 4-point underdog, bringing an end to the Tom Brady era with the Patriots.

There are three 2-8 teams in the AFC and Tennessee has lost to two of them, including last week 22-13 at home to Houston, a team that had lost eight in a row. Yet the Titans still sit atop the conference standings. The other loss was to the Jets.

In Sunday’s loss, the Titans outgained the Texans 420-190 but had a league-worst minus-5 turnover differential.

New England and rookie QB Mac Jones have won five in a row, but it’s the defense that’s flourished of late as the Patriots have outscored their past three foes, 94-13.

Analysis: Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill got awfully sloppy last week with a career-high four INTS, including three in enemy territory, against the league’s 30th-ranked defense. Plus he’s been sacked 31 times, tied for most in the league and already seven more than he had all of last year.

Until two-time defending rushing champ Derrick Henry returns off IR and until top receivers A.J. Brown (questionable, chest) and Julio Jones (IR, hamstring) get off the sideline, the Titans might be hard-pressed to keep up their amazing pace. That’s true especially here against Belichick, who probably has extra incentive to show who’s really the boss.

This likely will be a low-scoring game with NE’s top two RBs both questionable — Damien Harris (neck) and Rhamondre Stevenson. That will help the Titans keep it close.

Titans at Patriots Pick

Patriots 16, Titans 13

Last week: 7-8 ATS, 11-4 SU

Season total: 78-84-3 (.481) ATS; 100-64-1 (.610) SU

Also read: NFL Week 12 odds and early moves | Week 12 totals | NFL Week 12: Late Slate