This year’s trio of Thanksgiving games, followed by the first NFL Black Friday game — not to mention the 12 games taking place on Sunday and Monday — make Week 12 one of the best weekends of the year for football fans.
There’s no such thing as a bad game on Turkey Day, but this year, two of the Thursday games (Green Bay-Detroit and San Francisco-Seattle) have legitimate playoff implications for all four teams. Friday’s inaugural Black Friday matchup pits the Dolphins’ high-flying offense against the Jets’ excellent defense, and the Sunday slate also includes plenty of compelling battles.
We recommend the best NFL betting sites in Gaming Today’s overview of the odds for the best games of Week 12. Let’s break down the best NFL Week 12 odds and analyze a few of the best matchups here.
Week 12 NFL Odds & Betting Picks, Analysis
Green Bay Packers (4-6) at Detroit Lions (8-2)
- Time: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET
- TV/Live Stream: FOX
Green Bay has won two of three after defeating the Chargers on Sunday, giving Packers fans hopes of a push for a wild card berth. QB Jordan Love appears to be getting into a groove with his young receivers, and the Packers are just 1.5 games behind the 6-5 Vikings, who would have the 7-seed in the NFC if the season ended today. Thursday’s game against Detroit is Green Bay’s toughest test since it hosted the Lions back in Week 4 in a game Detroit won 34-20. The Lions continue to look like one of the best teams in the league, but each of the last two weeks, they needed some fourth-quarter heroics to avoid an upset.
It’s hard to see the best Lions team in years losing at home to the Packers, but their narrow wins over the Chargers and Bears the last two weeks make it easy to see Green Bay keeping this one close.
Pick: Green Bay (+7.5 at time of publishing)
San Francisco 49ers (7-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
- Time: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV/Live Stream: NBC
The Niners have spent the last two weeks emphatically answering all the questions that were raised when they lost three straight going into their bye in Week 9. San Francisco blew out the AFC North-leading Jaguars on the road in Week 10 and won comfortably at home against Tampa Bay last Sunday. Getting WR Deebo Samuel and LT Trent Williams back after the bye week has made a massive impact, and San Francisco once again looks capable of making a playoff run as long as it can stay healthy.
Seattle has lost two of its last three, including a 37-3 drubbing by the Ravens a few weeks ago. The Seahawks bounced back with a close win over Washington but lost to the Rams for the second time this season last Sunday. These two teams appear to be heading in opposite directions, and it doesn’t help the Hawks that they could be without both QB Geno Smith and starting RB Kenneth Walker III on Thursday (though rookie RB Zach Charbonnet has flashed in limited action to date).
It’s too early in the week to take a side in this one, but given that the “healthy 49ers” (outside of Weeks 6-8) have scored 30 or more in six of seven games, the Over is the safe play.
Pick: Over (42.5 at time of publishing)
Miami Dolphins (7-3) at New York Jets (4-6)
- Time: Friday, 3:00 p.m. ET
- TV/Live Stream: Prime Video
Miami’s offense has cooled down a bit the last few weeks, but the Dolphins keep winning thanks to a defense that has gotten healthier at the right time. Star corner Jalen Ramsey, who hauled in the interception that sealed his team’s win over the Raiders last Sunday, is a difference-maker now that he’s 100% healthy, and his return has solidified the Miami D over the last few weeks.
The Jets have lost three games in a row, and coach Robert Saleh is reportedly benching struggling QB Zach Wilson. Whether it’s Wilson or reserve signal caller Tim Boyle who starts Friday against Miami — ESPN’s Rich Cimini reported on Monday afternoon that Boyle will get the nod — Miami is a safe bet to cover, even as a heavy road favorite.
Pick: Miami (-9 at time of publishing)
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) at Houston Texans (6-4)
- Time: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- TV/Live Stream: CBS
A month ago, it was hard to imagine that the Week 12 Jags-Texans game would have postseason implications, but CJ Stroud‘s outstanding play has the Texans in the thick of the AFC playoff race. Stroud is coming off an up-and-down showing in his team’s win over Arizona in Week 11. He threw for 336 yards and two TDs while completing over 73% of his 37 passes, but also had three picks. Stroud and the Texans, though, overcame the turnovers. Sunday’s win over the Cards was the latest example that it’s not just Stroud who’s much better than anyone thought he would be this year, but his team as a whole.
Jacksonville enjoyed a much-needed convincing win over the Titans last Sunday after a blowout loss to San Francisco in Week 10. Against Tennessee, QB Trevor Lawrence completed 24-of-32 passes for 2 TDs and no interceptions, while getting sacked just once. It was a massive step forward after Lawrence had been sacked eight times total and thrown three interceptions in his team’s last two games.
Assuming Stroud can take better care of the football this week (which feels like a safe bet given he’s thrown just five interceptions all season), Sunday should be a compelling shootout between two of the best young quarterbacks in the AFC.
Pick: Over (48 at time of publishing)