As promised, the second edition of week 12 NFL player props is live!
Here’s hoping everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving and enjoyed three highly entertaining NFL games. Unfortunately, for the third consecutive week, our highest liability player was bit by the injury bug. It’s been a bizarre trend with key players getting injured week after week. I feel like Mush from the movie, “A Bronx Tale.”
A glass half-full perspective shows that the picks have been solid because players were on pace (or better) prior to getting hurt. Positive regression is coming as long as injuries stop ruining our Sundays and Thursdays. I’m focusing on quarterbacks with the assumption that injuries to signal callers are more infrequent than the skill positions. Oddsmakers are offering some attractive numbers for QB props in Week 12, too.
Current Record: 59-54
“Bet with your head, not over it” — Furio from The Sopranos
Week 12 Player Props | Just The QBs
Daniel Jones Over 17.5 Rushing Yards -110 (DraftKings)
Everyone knows how much we enjoy QB rushing props. Daniel Jones should be trying to run more frequently. Now that Jason Garrett has been ousted from New York, new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens should be letting Jones use his legs more than in the past.
Jimmy Garappollo Under 252.5 Passing Yards -114 (FanDuel)
The 49ers’ route to victory is through one thing — running the football. Whether Jeff Wilson or Elijah Mitchell are the bell-cow for San Fran, Jimmy G should be a full-on game manager. Sportsbooks are expecting a shootout just about anytime the Vikings play, but their defensive line should make it a smash spot for only the 49ers running backs.
Tom Brady Over 38.5 Pass Attempts -115 (PointsBet)
Unfortunately, we have been bit by Brady’s pass-attempt props twice in three tries. We’re going back to the well on this one as 38.5 is a particularly low number. I had this projected at 41.5 as Brady is over this number for pass attempts in six of his last eight games. The Colts could make this game very competitive, which will force Brady to air it out in the second half.
Tom Brady Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns +140 (DraftKings)
Some stats:
- Since he has been in Tampa Bay, Brady has never gone three straight games without at least three passing touchdowns.
- The Colts run defense is one of the best in the league, but their passing defense has given up the MOST passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season (25).
At +140 against the worst pass defense in the NFL, no one should resist this price.
Mac Jones Over 29.5 Pass Attempts -115 (BetMGM)
Mac Jones hands the ball off, A LOT. However, 29.5 is a reasonable number despite him not clearing it in three straight games. Mike Vrabel and the Titans usually plays the Patriots tough, so this game shouldn’t be a laugher like the last three have been.
Carson Wentz Over 11.5 Rushing Yards -114 (FanDuel)
Wentz is not well known for his ability to run the ball, but you wouldn’t know it if you saw him this year. He has been more than willing to run the ball this season and might need to do it some more against a tough Tampa Bay pass rush.
Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +125 (DraftKings)
Known for his incredible elusiveness and rushing ability, Hurts had two passing touchdowns against the Denver Broncos. This is not an attempt to compliment the Broncos, but they do give up the fourth least fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Furthermore, they have only yielded 13 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. The Giants have given up 18 to opposing quarterbacks, and they are below average at best at defending opposing receivers.
Week 12 NFL Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Scorer | Skill Positions
Week 12 TD Scorer Bet: Rob Gronkowski To Score +185 | 2+ Touchdowns +1300 (PointsBet)
Gronkowski looked very healthy last weekend. He is the best red-zone target for the Bucs, so taking +185 for one TD is a no-brainer. Taking a stab at 2+ touchdowns +1300? Let’s call it a risk worth taking. He has scored twice in two of his four games this season.
Miles Sanders Over 59.5 Rushing Yards -120 (DraftKings)
Sanders had 16 carries for 94 yards last weekend against the Saints. The only concern here is if he fumbles again. Last week, Sanders fumbled and immediately lost some carries to Jordan Howard. However, Howard is out this week due to a knee injury. It seems unlikely that Boston Scott will steal any serious carries from Sanders.
Adam Thielen Over 55.5 Receiving Yards -125 (PointsBet)
The number seems very low here. Thielen has gone over this number in three of his last four games. I am hesitant to say this but Kirk Cousins has looked really solid recently.
Also read: NFL Week 12 odds and early moves | Week 12 totals | NFL Week 12: Late Slate
About the Author
