It’s taken a few weeks to accept, but I’m one of the many casualties in the 2022 NFL Survivor season. I’m but a small data point amongst the 99% of NFL Survivor entrants eliminated through 12 weeks. With only a handful of entrants left to make their NFL Week 13 Survivor Picks, the pressure mounts.
In the Circa Survivor pool in Las Vegas, 71 of the 6,133 entrants (1.16%) are alive heading into Week 13.
Week 12 Sunday/Monday #CircaSurvivor Results
❌ 0 entries eliminated
✅ 71 of 6,133 total entries survive to Week 13
🤑 Winner-Take-All Prize: $6,133,000
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) November 30, 2022
As it happens every year, my best laid plans were inevitably dashed midway through the NFL season. Dreams of quitting my job as a sports bettor and writer to buy a fleet of diamond-encrusted airplanes must wait. Flying around the world playing exotic golf courses? Not anytime soon.
If you’ve survived this far, it means you’re better at this than I am. (Congratulations on your diamond airplane.) As I must wait one more year for a shot at my dream, I’ll continue to spend my time offering insight and strategy on how to approach the NFL Survivor landscape.
Here are your best NFL Week 13 Survivor Picks.
Bet NFL on the Best Sports Betting Apps
NFL Survivor Strategies Recap
There are two basic strategies to consider when making NFL Survivor picks.
Strategy #1 – Survive And Advance
This strategy is simple. Take the best team available and hope they win.
Strategy #2 – Contrarian Picks With Value
With only 1% of tickets remaining, this strategy is officially kaput. With limited players, and limited teams remaining, there’s no sense playing contrarian.
Bet NFL at FanDuel: Claim Your $1,000 No Sweat First Bet
NFL Survivor Week 13: Safest Pick On The Board
The Dallas Cowboys are the safest pick on the board in NFL Week 13.
After destroying the Vikings in Week 11, the Cowboys followed up with a solid win against the Giants on Thanksgiving. They’ll enter this matchup against the Colts well-rested, and within striking distance of the Eagles in the NFC East. During a stretch of the season where motivation for some teams might be lacking, that won’t be a problem for Dallas.
The Colts are coming off a truly embarrassing performance against the Steelers on Monday Night Football. The Colts looked lost in the first half against the Steelers defense, as Matt Ryan and the Colts’ one-dimensional offense scored just three first-half points. While the Colts mounted a small charge in the third quarter, they ultimately fell short, largely in part to head coach Jeff Saturday’s terrible clock management.
The Cowboys are a brutal matchup for the Colts. Micah Parsons is running away with the Defensive Player of the Year trophy and should be able to put a ton of pressure on Ryan under center. The lone bright spot for the Colts offense has been stud running back Jonathan Taylor, and the Cowboys rush defense HAS been a weak spot. But if the Colts fall behind early, they’ll need to rely on Ryan to throw the ball, and this Cowboys pass defense is ranked No. 2 in the league.
For NFL Survivor Pools, it’s slim pickings in NFL Week 13. If you have the Cowboys available, they’re the best bet on the board.
Read more: NFL Week 13 Betting Tips & Strategies
NFL Survivor Week 13: Two Other Options
There’s a version of this year’s NFL season in the Marvel Multiverse that features the Baltimore Ravens at a perfect 11-0.
The Ravens have played some excellent football this year, only to self-combust in the second half of games. Last week, they outplayed the Jaguars through 55 minutes but lost the game on a last-minute drive by Trevor Lawrence. It marked the fourth time this season the Ravens have blown a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter.
If you eliminate those four blown games, the Ravens are 11-0. Some of their other wins were suspect, sure, but please let me skew the available data to suit my narrative as I see fit. Thank you.
The 7-4 Ravens are 8.5-point favorites at home this week against the 3-9 Denver Broncos. It’s clear the Russell Wilson experience is a train wreck, and the Broncos can’t score. Denver has failed to put up more than 20 points in nine of their 11 games this season. While there are a few red flags for a Ravens team that can’t close out games, they should do enough to win one at home against the Broncos.
If you have the Ravens available, they’re a good option in NFL Survivor Pools for Week 13.
Bet NFL Week 13: Get up to a $1,250 in bonuses at DraftKings
The Seahawks are another strong option this week against the Los Angeles Rams.
This marks the second time in six weeks the Seahawks travel to LA. Seattle took care of the Chargers at SoFi Stadium 37-23 in Week 7. The die-hard Seahawks fan base travels extremely well, so don’t be surprised if this has a home-game feel against the Rams. We saw close to 80% of fans sporting Seahawks gear in against the Chargers, so safe to assume the crowd comes out again in Week 13.
As for the Rams, this season is officially a write-off. With their playoff hopes dashed, and their two best players injured, we could soon see the Rams go into full tank mode. Unless Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp are 100% healthy, don’t expect to see either put on a Rams uniform anytime soon.
The Seahawks offense has been scoring at will this season. They rank fourth in the NFL in total points scored, and this banged-up Rams team won’t be able to keep up.
Look for the Seahawks to take care of business in LA.