Mr. Irrelevant becomes relevant, the Next Man Up blueprint gains traction, and the class teams have begun pulling away from the pack.
Those are some major takeaways linking Week 13 and the first glance at Week 14, which essentially starts the fourth quarter of the NFL season.
Right after the Monday night game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints, bettors have several Week 14 angles to peruse.
NFL Week 14 Odds
Here are odds from top US sportsbooks on the 13-game Week 14 slate.
Power Brokers Shine in Week 13
The 9-3 Buffalo Bills, who regained the No. 1 seed in the AFC once the Cincinnati Bengals defeated the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, return to Buffalo after three wins away from home.
They have a rematch against the New York Jets, who beat them last month. The Bills rewarded the betting majority with their 24-10 triumph over the host New England Patriots at -3.5 on Thursday night. Buffalo is a 9.5-point favorite in Week 14, according to early betting lines.
The 11-1 Philadelphia Eagles, holding a vice grip atop the NFC’s top seed, begin a three-game road stretch at the New York Giants (who tied the Washington Commanders 20-20 on Sunday). Philly is -6.5 on most oddsboards.
Philadelphia’s 35-10 destruction of the Tennessee Titans Sunday was the highest output delivered against the Titans in 10 weeks. The Titans had been a hot pick by the bettors all week and took 58% of the DraftKings handle at +4.5.
The Dallas Cowboys, who would be leading most divisions, take a 9-3 second-place record into their home game against the Houston Texans. The ‘Boys put a 54-19 beatdown on the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night, authoring a wild 33-point fourth quarter. They coasted to a cover at -10.5.
That helped them reward FanDuel bettors at +950 for Dallas to be the highest-scoring team and the Cowboys-Colts at +1300 to notch the highest-scoring game.
According to Caesars, the Cowboys are 9-0 SU and ATS in home games versus opponents with a losing record entering the game over the last two years.
They are 5-0 in such games this season, with an average victory margin 19 points.
Bettors will weigh that when the Cowboys host the one-win Texans as 17-point favorites.
They may also consider that the NFC East is 11-1 against the AFC South.
Mr. Irrelevant and Next Man Up
Newcomer Brock Purdy may have solidified his job quarterbacking the San Francisco 49ers.
Only bettors who understood the NFL Draft’s Mr. Irrelevant story knew about Purdy before Sunday.
As Mr. Irrelevant, Purdy was the last player taken in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Niners took him at No. 262.
All he did Sunday was prove he could have been drafted higher. Purdy played with poise, helping the Niners thump the Miami Dolphins, 33-17. As the 8-4 Niners (-3) prepare for Tom Brady and Tampa Bay on Sunday, they ride a six-game win streak, including five covers.
Purdy made bettors say “Jimmy Who” in going 25-for 37 with two touchdowns in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo, who suffered a broken foot early in the game. Garoppolo is gone for the season, and Purdy looks capable of guiding this team. He is comfortable with the system.
And let the jokes begin: “I can’t believe he was there at 262…”
It will help Purdy that he can lean on Christian McCaffrey for 25 touches, as he did Sunday.
Against Miami, the Niners rewarded the gambling minority, as 35% of the DraftKings handle was on them at -4.5.
Betting takeaway: For one game at least, there was no dropoff from Garoppolo to Purdy, who became the first Mr. Irrelevant ever to throw a touchdown pass.
Miami, meanwhile, suffered its first loss in a game Tua Tagovailoa started and finished. The 8-4 Dolphins won’t face as tough a defense as this one when they visit the Los Angeles Chargers as 2.5-point favorites on Sunday night.
The Niners had not allowed any second-half points in four games before Tua hit Tyreek Hill on a big score early in the fourth quarter.
The Dolphins played well enough to win most weeks. This just wasn’t most weeks.
Tyler Huntley, the other sub in the hot seat, enables the 8-4 Baltimore Ravens to keep first place in the AFC North. He directed Baltimore to a sluggish 10-9 victory over the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos-Ravens paid +600 at FanDuel to be the lowest-scoring contest. Denver is a threat to pay this out every week.
The Ravens bailed themselves out by securing two 4th-down conversions with the game on the line in the final drive against Denver.
Baltimore came nowhere near covering -9 for the 68% of the DraftKings handle backing them.
Some Caesars bettors latched onto the nugget that Russell Wilson had been 4-1 against the spread when receiving at +7 or higher and played Denver. He made that stat 5-1 Sunday.
AFC North Matchups and Betting Lines in Week 14
Here’s a preview of the AFC North in Week 14, which has all four teams facing each other.
Ravens vs. Steelers (-2, 37.5)
Unlike Purdy, Huntley has been tested and has thrived. He spelled Lamar Jackson for stretches in the past and came in Sunday after Jackson was injured. Huntley can run nearly as well as Jackson and is probably a more accurate passer. He’s a small dropoff from Jackson, but the team can hold its own with him.
Huntley or Jackson will now face the rejuvenated Steelers, winners of two straight and finding an identity under rookie Kenny Pickett.
The Steelers enter off consecutive road victories over the Colts and Atlanta Falcons. Pittsburgh is 3-1 straight up and against the number in the last four weeks. The Steelers are playing like a team wants to turn the corner.
Browns vs. Bengals (-5, 48)
Two teams that registered the improbable meet in Cincinnati.
The Bengals did something in Week 13 no team has ever accomplished. They reached a win streak of three against Patrick Mahomes.
The Bengals captured an excellent 27-24 battle against the Kansas City Chiefs, staying even with the Ravens atop the division.
The return of Ja’Marr Chase, the continual growth of quarterback Joe Burrow, and a defense that made Mahomes uncomfortable forged a win for the Bengals.
This also was a big triumph for the minority. DraftKings reported that 82% of the handle was on Kansas City -2. And 78% of the handle was on the Over 52, which just missed.
At Caesars, the total of 53 points generated the most Over tickets (83%) and dollars wagered (89%) for any Week 13 game.
The Browns embodied “the defense never rests” phrase on steroids in beating the Houston Texans, 27-14.
The return of Deshaun Watson prompted DraftKings betting support of 59% at -8.
In one of the strangest games in many years, the Texans contained the Browns, but not themselves. Houston yielded a punt return touchdown, a fumble for a touchdown and an interception return for a score. That’s a tragic trifecta.
Cleveland did not score an offensive touchdown, yet covered -8. The Browns have won two straight but will find a Bengals team that does not figure to make those mistakes.
Cleveland won the first meeting of the season between the teams, 32-13.
According to Caesars, the Minnesota Vikings have now won consecutive games when they have been favored, dating back to last season. That is the longest current streak in the NFL and the team’s longest since a 13-game spree spanning parts of the 1974 and 1975 seasons.
But Caesars bettors were not convinced this would be easy against the New York Jets. The Vikings at -3 attracted 63% of the spread bets, while the Jets collected 54% of the spread handle.
The Vikings nearly collapsed at the end before surviving 27-22.
After assuming a 27-15 fourth-quarter lead, the Vikings could not put the game away. They yielded a touchdown and nearly surrendered the game-winning score. The Jets had 2nd-and-goal at the 1 and were stopped on three plays with under two minutes to go. They nearly delivered the game-winning score on another drive before being picked at the goal line.
The Jets did not cover here but remain a strong dog with five outright wins when receiving points (5-4 SU and ATS) this year.
Detroit Keeps Rolling
The Lions, who host the Vikings in Week 14, are hot, hot, hot. They are 4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in their recent tear.
This team has a solid offensive line, an excellent back in Jamaal Williams, and breakout wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who notched two more touchdowns in a 40-14 rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Hard to believe they were just1-point favorites.
PointsBet Patrons Secure Mixed Bag on Props
PointsBet dodged payouts on some of its heavy prop action, while bettors cashed in their share.
Most Bet Prop Plays (NFL Week 13 – Day Games)
1. Nick Chubb Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-180) was a win for the book
2. Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-150) was a win for the book.
3. A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120) was a win for the bettors
4. Jamaal Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-135) was cashed by the bettors
5. Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-150) was a win for the book
Updated prices: Super Bowl 57 odds