NFL Week 14 Betting Trends: Can the Steelers Surprise Ravens Bettors?

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For NFL bettors, the holiday spirit hits full swing. Santa Claus is indeed coming to town, bearing gifts in the form of points to home teams.

Ho Ho Ho, the Kansas City Chiefs give nine points to the host Denver Broncos in Week 14, supported by 82% of the early DraftKings spread handle.

The Philadelphia Eagles come riding into Met Life Stadium at -7 against the New York Giants, with 71% spread handle at the sportsbook.

Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are -3.5 against the host Los Angeles Chargers, with 79% of the DraftKings spread handle so far. Miami’s coming off a blowout loss to Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers with vengeance on their minds. 

Read More: Odds to Win Super Bowl 57 | Latest NFL MVP Odds

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Even a sub-.500 team can receive some of Santa’s holiday cheer. The Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) albeit winners of three straight — are favored with a 6-point spread for a Thursday Night Football matchup against the struggling Los Angeles Rams. Derek Carr and Co. have garnered 78% of the early handle.

The 3-9 defending Super Bowl champs signed Baker Mayfield on Tuesday. Mayfield could start on Thursday but that hasn’t moved the betting line much.

That is one betting phenomenon entering Week 14 while the second involves a quirk.

Mr. Irrelevant Gets More Betting Love Than the GOAT

Go figure. Brock Purdy, the 262nd pick in the NFL draft, pilots a team that is favored against the quarterback with the most NFL titles of all time. Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers remain favored by more than a field goal against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tom Brady’s seven Super Bowl rings.

Imagine projecting that on draft night. …

Cowboys Feeling the Sportsbook Love

Another eye-opener involves the Dallas Cowboys. They have been established at an NFL season-high -17 points against the visiting Houston Texans on Sunday. The ‘Boys have 58% of the handle at DraftKings.

This is in part a reaction to Dallas’ incredible 33-point fourth-quarter outburst against the Indianapolis Colts last week. That paved the way to a 54-19 shellacking.

Big numbers are not impossible to surpass, however.

The Chiefs managed to cover a 15.5-point spread (as favorites) in a win over the Los Angeles Rams, 26-10, two weeks ago. And the Dolphins, who had spent most of that week at -14 and -14.5, pushed at Sunday’s -15 line with a 30-15 win over the lowly Texans. Most of the bettors cashed in on Miami by wagering early.

More NFL Week 14 Betting Trends

Here are some additional eye-openers.

Steelers Look to Maintain Momentum Against Huntley’s Ravens

The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7) are -2.5 against the eight-win Baltimore Ravens — leaders of the AFC North. This reflects a 5-2 cover streak and back-to-back victories for Pittsburgh, while the Ravens haven’t covered the spread in their last three.

Baltimore should start backup quarterback Tyler Huntley, whom one might consider Lamar Jackson Lite. Huntley scrambles well, although few are in Jackson’s class. He has better touch on his passes than Jackson.

The wild card here will be Huntley’s timing with receivers.

Pittsburgh gained two nail-biting victories over Baltimore last year. The first was a one-pointer. The second was an overtime triumph that knocked Baltimore out of the playoffs.

Vikings Listed as Dogs vs. Lions

The Detroit Lions are 5-7 yet favored against the Minnesota Vikings (10-2). The betting majority thinks the -2.5 is too high and supports Minnesota at a 60% handle.

The Vikings have the lowest point differential of any 10-2 team in NFL history, according to SI.com. They are just +10 and the Lions are only -9.

The Lions have covered in five straight.

A Book’s Look at Three Significant Games

Tampa Bay at San Francisco (-3.5)

“We opened up the Bucs-Niners a little higher but it has come down,” Johnny Avello, the Director of Race and Sportsbook Operations for DraftKings, told Gaming Today. “I can see it even coming all the way down to 3. Tampa Bay is in a division it might win by default but when you look at this team, there are still a lot of quality players.

“In a big game like this, they are facing Purdy, who has limited experience. Now Purdy may end up better a quarterback at some point in his career than  Tom Brady is now, but I am not sure this is that time. I think the public is going to be all over Tampa Bay in this game.”

Minnesota at Detroit (-2.5)

Avello noted that the Lions have done their best work when getting points. Suddenly, they have expectations.

“You could have gotten the Lions at +3 a couple of weeks ago,” Avello noted. “It has changed and the funny part about this game is that the Lions are playing pretty well now and the Vikings are winning — but struggling.

“I don’t know about this spot for the Lions, though. They perform their best when they are in an underdog role.”

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Avello considers Lamar Jackson a difference to the betting line of perhaps five points. Huntley thus has big shoes to fill.

The Betting Sweet Spot — Week 13 NFL Trends & Stats

It may concern a small minority of gamblers, but somebody always picks the perfect moment for an in-game bet.

That would have meant getting +250 on the Minnesota Vikings just before they waged a goal-line stand to stave off the New York Jets, 27-22.

That would have meant taking the Baltimore Ravens at +750 when they needed a 4th-down conversion in their own territory before slipping past the Denver Broncos, 10-9.

It also would have meant getting +1300 when Tampa Bay trailed the New Orleans Saints, 16-3, and punted the ball away midway through the fourth quarter. They then scored two late touchdowns to steal a 17-16 triumph in classic Tom Brady fashion. The Saints would have iced the game with a first down on either of their last two possessions.

All these bets involved a significant leap of faith and thus, a major payday.

A Hill of A Bet

This one was calculated genius: Taysom Hill to be the first touchdown scorer Monday night.

The New Orleans quarterback/running back/tight end paid a sizzling +1800 to DraftKings bettors who selected him as the first touchdown scorer. That was the top payout at DraftKings for scoring props. Hill also returned +320 as an anytime scorer.

One can understand the whopping odds. Hill is used in short-yardage running situations and a gamble on him can be based upon New Orleans needing a powerful run from somewhere deep in the red zone.

But this time, Hill slipped into the flat and caught a 30-yard touchdown pass from Andy Dalton. It gave the Saints a 7-3 second-quarter lead.

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Patience was also rewarded for bettors of Cade Otton. For the second time this year, the Bucs’ tight end bailed his team out in the late moments of the game.

Tom Brady hit him on a short score to put the Bucs back in the game.  Otten thus returned +500 to the bettors.

Juice From a Deuce — DraftKings Parlay of the Week

Look at the fun, frolic, and financial gain available for two bucks.

One DraftKings bettor used the expertise of three different sports to turn $2.60 into $4,319.75 with this +166044 12-leg parlay:

  • Saints vs. Buccaneers, Under 40.5
  • Bucks vs. Magic, Under 225
  • Clippers vs. Hornets, Over 217
  • Thunder vs. Hawks, Over 231.5
  • Celtics vs. Raptors, Under 227
  • Heat vs. Grizzlies, Under 226.5
  • 76ers vs. Houston Rockets, Over 220.5
  • Pacers vs. Warriors, Under 241.5
  • Suns vs. Mavericks, Over 221.5
  • Golden Knights (+1.5) vs. Bruins 
  • Avalanche vs. Flyers, Over 6
  • Blues vs. Rangers – Rangers Moneyline

What versatility.

The NFL portion of this ticket was hit easily, but the other sports provided the sweat you’d expect from a multi-legged parlay.

The Flyers-Avalanche needed a goal within the last two minutes to reach the total, which Colorado provided.

And the Celtics-Raptors was the closest of close shaves. The 116-110 Boston triumph was one point below the listed Under total. And the bettor had to survive an open 24-foot shot that was missed, and a defensive rebound with 2.8 seconds left.

Had the score been tighter, the defensive rebound would have led to a foul and a pair of free throws. But because the margin was six, the Raptors didn’t press the issue.

That would have prompted a Thank You if the bettor was watching.

Around the Horn

FanDuel Props

FanDuel put up a few early ones for Week 14.

Purdy will enjoy a betting moment in the sun, regardless of its length.

The book has a prop for Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, and Purdy to each throw two or more touchdowns. It pays +650.

Burrow is playing the Cleveland Browns and has a good chance. Goff goes against a bend-but-don’t-break Vikings team but has an excellent receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Purdy goes up against a tough Bucs defense. He has many weapons, including Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield.

Will the red-hot Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and D.K. Metcalf each reach 100 yards receiving? That’s +1400.

Hill faces a middle-of-the-road Chargers defense. Adams opposes a Rams secondary that can be torched. Metcalf goes against a reasonably-efficient Carolina Panthers secondary.

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Early BetMGM Considerations

Adams is on fire right now. Suddenly, the Raiders remember why they signed him.

BetMGM has him at +400 to score the first touchdown Thursday night against the Rams. That’s a little low for a first TD but a high mark of respect for the superstar wideout. Josh Jacobs is next at +450 and the Raiders defense would pay +1800 to notch the first score.

How to Get Around a Prohibitive Moneyline Number

The Eagles are -300 against the Giants.

But a bettor could shave that down to plus numbers by taking two margin-of-victory bets.

Philadelphia to win by 1-6 points is +320. And to win by 7-12 points is +375.

Putting $100 on each, for example, would create a return of $420 on the first wager and $475 on the next — IF the Eagles win by anything from 1-12 points. 

That may not be exhilarating, but an edge is an edge. The Eagles haven’t blown out teams on the road, but they usually win.

There are other ways to get around the number, of course. Take a moneyline parlay, link an Eagles victory with some other games, and try to get the number down.

But for bettors who follow the team, this is one angle they may look at.

NFL Week 14 Betting Lines

Here are the latest point spreads, totals, and moneylines available at the best sports betting apps.

Bet TypeSpreads
Open
Thu (12/8) @ 8:16pm ET LV Raiders -208 -556 -455 +1400 -435 -500
LA Rams +170 +400 +340 -5000 +310 +350
Sun (12/11) @ 1:00pm ET PHI Eagles -278 -10000 -10000 -2500 -333 -5000 0
NY Giants +210 +2000 +3300 +1100 +275 +1200 +4500
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET JAX Jaguars +150 -1429 -10000 -909 0 0
TEN Titans -185 +800 +3300 +575 +3000 +6000
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET NY Jets +350 +2500 +3300 +1600 +4000 +8000
BUF Bills -455 0 -10000 -5000 0 0
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET HOU Texans +900 +2000 +1050 +2000 +2500 +1700
DAL Cowboys -1667 -10000 -5000 -5000 0 -5000
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET CLE Browns +165 +1500 +1300 +1400 +1060 +2500
CIN Bengals -200 -5000 -10000 -5000 -3333 -10000
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET MIN Vikings -115 +1000 +875 +1600 +1100 0
DET Lions -105 -2000 -2500 0 -5000 0
Sun (12/11) @ 1:03pm ET BAL Ravens +100 -2000 -455 -5000 -1429 -5000
PIT Steelers -120 +1000 +310 +1600 +680 +1800
Sun (12/11) @ 4:05pm ET KC Chiefs -400 -10000 -3333 -5000 -435 -5000 -10000
DEN Broncos +310 +2200 +1000 +2000 +355 +1300 +2000
Sun (12/11) @ 4:22pm ET CAR Panthers +200 -1111 -10000 -455 +168 0 -3333
SEA Seahawks -250 +675 +1400 +340 -196 +2500 +1400
Sun (12/11) @ 4:25pm ET TB Buccaneers +145 +2500 +2200 +4000 +155 +1700 +6000
SF 49ers -175 0 -10000 0 -179 -10000 0
Sun (12/11) @ 8:23pm ET MIA Dolphins -130 +2500 +1400 +1000 -175 +1100 0
LA Chargers +110 0 -10000 -2000 +150 -5000 0
Mon (12/12) @ 8:15pm ET NE Patriots -120 0 -5000 0 0 0
ARI Cardinals +100 +2500 +2000 +6000 +3500 +4000
Thu (12/8) @ 8:16pm ET LV Raiders -5.5 -110 -6.5 +320 -6.5 +1250 -6.5 +200 -6.5 +305 -0.5 0
LA Rams +5.5 -110 +6.5 -417 +6.5 -10000 +6.5 -250 +6.5 -455 +0.5 0
Sun (12/11) @ 1:00pm ET PHI Eagles -6.5 -110 -33.5 -161 -20.5 -105 -27.5 -238 -7.0 -114 -26.5 -294 -33.5 -345
NY Giants +6.5 -110 +33.5 +130 +20.5 -120 +27.5 +195 +7.0 -108 +26.5 +215 +33.5 +280
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET JAX Jaguars +3.5 -110 -13.5 -204 -19.5 +115 -14.0 -500 -10.5 -114 -13.5 -238
TEN Titans -3.5 -110 +13.5 +165 +19.5 -149 +14.0 +375 +10.5 -114 +13.5 +190
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET NY Jets +9.5 -110 +10.5 +125 +13.5 -250 +8.5 -833 +10.5 -102 +10.5 +125
BUF Bills -9.5 -110 -10.5 -154 -13.5 +190 -8.5 +525 -10.5 -128 -10.5 -145
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET HOU Texans +17.0 -110 +3.5 -120 +3.5 +1050 +1.5 -120 +2.5 -114 -2.5 0
DAL Cowboys -17.0 -110 -3.5 -110 -3.5 -5000 -1.5 -110 -2.5 -115 +2.5 0
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET CLE Browns +4.5 -110 +13.5 -769 +13.5 -135 +13.0 +165 +13.5 -625 +13.0 +160
CIN Bengals -4.5 -110 -13.5 +520 -13.5 +105 -13.0 -200 -13.5 +390 -13.0 -189
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET MIN Vikings -1.0 -110 +8.5 -625 +10.5 +1000 +14.5 -115 +14.5 -108 +8.0 +240
DET Lions +1.0 -110 -8.5 +440 -10.5 -3333 -14.5 -115 -14.5 -120 -8.0 -303
Sun (12/11) @ 1:03pm ET BAL Ravens +1.0 -110 -9.5 +115 -1.5 -455 -6.5 -125 -8.5 -145 -9.0 +110
PIT Steelers -1.0 -110 +9.5 -145 +1.5 +310 +6.5 -105 +8.5 +110 +9.0 -130
Sun (12/11) @ 4:05pm ET KC Chiefs -8.5 -110 -7.5 -115 -6.5 -120 -6.5 +120 -9.0 -110 -8.5 -147 -7.5 +100
DEN Broncos +8.5 -110 +7.5 -115 +6.5 -110 +6.5 -149 +9.0 -110 +8.5 +112 +7.5 -115
Sun (12/11) @ 4:22pm ET CAR Panthers +6.0 -110 -12.5 -476 -12.5 +1800 -6.5 +450 +3.5 -109 -12.5 -588 -12.5 -145
SEA Seahawks -6.0 -110 +12.5 +350 +12.5 -10000 +6.5 -667 -3.5 -112 +12.5 +365 +12.5 +125
Sun (12/11) @ 4:25pm ET TB Buccaneers +3.0 -110 +28.5 -208 +25.5 +3300 +28.0 -145 +3.5 -115 +28.5 -169 +28.5 -161
SF 49ers -3.0 -110 -28.5 +170 -25.5 -10000 -28.0 +115 -3.5 -105 -28.5 +130 -28.5 +135
Sun (12/11) @ 8:23pm ET MIA Dolphins -2.0 -110 +6.5 -110 +6.5 -10000 +6.0 +525 -3.0 -118 +6.5 -139 +8.5 +105
LA Chargers +2.0 -110 -6.5 -120 -6.5 +3300 -6.0 -833 +3.0 -105 -6.5 +106 -8.5 -120
Mon (12/12) @ 8:15pm ET NE Patriots -1.5 -110 -13.5 -1250 -14.5 +500 -15.5 -115 -13.5 -588 -14.0 -179
ARI Cardinals +1.5 -110 +13.5 +700 +14.5 -909 +15.5 -115 +13.5 +390 +14.0 +150
Thu (12/8) @ 8:16pm ET LV Raiders o43 -110 o26.5 +130 o25.5 -185 o25.5 -189 o32 0
LA Rams u43 -110 u26.5 -161 u25.5 +140 u25.5 +144 u32 0
Sun (12/11) @ 1:00pm ET PHI Eagles u44.5 -110 u55.5 -130 u51.5 -141 u44.5 -110 u44.5 -109 u55.5 -120 u62.5 -345
NY Giants o44.5 -110 o55.5 +100 o51.5 +110 o44.5 -110 o44.5 -112 o55.5 -108 o62.5 +280
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET JAX Jaguars o42 -110 o56.5 -115 o59.5 -120 o57.5 -106 o58.5 +185
TEN Titans u42 -110 u56.5 -115 u59.5 -110 u57.5 -122 u58.5 -227
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET NY Jets u44.5 -110 u35.5 -135 u31.5 -115 u35.5 -145 u35 -115
BUF Bills o44.5 -110 o35.5 +105 o31.5 -115 o35.5 +110 o35 +100
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET HOU Texans u45 -110 u55.5 -115 u50.5 -2000 u49.5 +146 u50 0
DAL Cowboys o45 -110 o55.5 -115 o50.5 +825 o49.5 -192 o50 0
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET CLE Browns u49.5 -110 u35.5 -110 u37.5 -10000 u36.5 -128 u36.5 -110
CIN Bengals o49.5 -110 o35.5 -120 o37.5 +3300 o36.5 -102 o36.5 -105
Sun (12/11) @ 1:02pm ET MIN Vikings u52 -110 u53.5 +105 u57.5 -2500 u51.5 -154 u54.5 -208
DET Lions o52 -110 o53.5 -135 o57.5 +875 o51.5 +118 o54.5 +175
Sun (12/11) @ 1:03pm ET BAL Ravens o38.5 -110 o29.5 -115 o30.5 +220 o26.5 -115 o26.5 -105
PIT Steelers u38.5 -110 u29.5 -115 u30.5 -303 u26.5 -114 u26.5 -110
Sun (12/11) @ 4:05pm ET KC Chiefs u42.5 -110 u68.5 +100 u68.5 +110 u43.5 -108 u68.5 +100 u69 -108
DEN Broncos o42.5 -110 o68.5 -130 o68.5 -141 o43.5 -114 o68.5 -130 o69 -108
Sun (12/11) @ 4:22pm ET CAR Panthers o43.5 -110 o50.5 -130 o46.5 -154 o44.0 -115 o47.5 +120 o47 +100
SEA Seahawks u43.5 -110 u50.5 +100 u46.5 +120 u44.0 -106 u47.5 -154 u47 -115
Sun (12/11) @ 4:25pm ET TB Buccaneers u37.5 -110 u48.5 +130 u42.5 -10000 u38.5 -109 u48.5 +114 u44.5 -108
SF 49ers o37.5 -110 o48.5 -161 o42.5 +3300 o38.5 -112 o48.5 -147 o44.5 -108
Sun (12/11) @ 8:23pm ET MIA Dolphins u51.5 -110 u41.5 +100 u46.5 +100 u54.5 -110 u44.5 -145 u42 -108
LA Chargers o51.5 -110 o41.5 -130 o46.5 -125 o54.5 -110 o44.5 +110 o42 -108
Mon (12/12) @ 8:15pm ET NE Patriots u43.5 -110 u47.5 -145 u42 -110 u43.5 -132 u40.5 -250
ARI Cardinals o43.5 -110 o47.5 +115 o42 -110 o43.5 +102 o40.5 +175
About the Author
Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo is a multiple award-winning writer and broadcaster, who has covered the sports industry since the 1970’s. He won the Sam Taub Award for Excellence in Boxing Broadcasting by the Boxing Writers Association of America in 1997, and is in the New Jersey and Atlantic City Boxing Halls of Fame. He has broadcast major fights all over the world. The advent of legalized sports wagering shifted his focus to this exciting new industry in 2018.

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