Jeff Stoneback, who oversees BetMGM’s sportsbook operations in Las Vegas, doesn’t just hail from Seattle, the place is in his heart and soul. So much so, he named a son after the Emerald City.
Seattle Stoneback is the absolute perfect name for a grunge guitarist. However, he is forging a career in digital marketing. Our loss.
Being from Milwaukee, with four pieces of Packers stock framed on an office wall, I lamented to the elder Stoneback about that fateful onside kick that went the Seahawks’ way in the NFC title game on Jan. 18, 2015.
He countered with the late interception that would cost Seattle a Super Bowl two weeks later, against New England. We commiserated further, I about the Brewers, he about the Mariners.
I remained mum about Green Bay, whose four-game lead in the NFC North knots it with Tampa Bay, in the NFC South, for the largest divisional advantage in the NFL. Seattle is 4-8.
“It’s been tough this year,” says Stoneback, 58. “Everyone is shell-shocked in Seattle, thinking it’s time for Russell Wilson to leave, time for Pete Carroll to leave. But if not for Russell Wilson, we wouldn’t have been in the playoffs the past few years.
“But that interception against New England at the goal line, geez … mighta been easier if we had just lost to the Packers.”
During a typical lull between two big holidays, with the National Finals Rodeo in Las Vegas to provide further distraction, Stoneback has seen two NFL games flip, sort of. And he expected Raiders–Chiefs, Rams–Cardinals and Bill–Buccaneers to dominate NFL attention.
“Those three games, I’m sure we will have a decent handle on them,” he says. “Those will probably be our top games for the week.”
Let’s take a look at the Week 14 card.
(Each team’s records, overall and ATS, are in parenthesis.)
Dallas Cowboys (8-4, 9-3) at Washington Football Team (6-6, 5-7)
NFL – Sun (12/12) @ 1 p.m. ET
FedExField, Landover, MD
BetMGM Betting Line: Cowboys -4, Total 48
At BetMGM, this game involves teams that have attracted the second- and third-most amount of tickets written, No. 2 being Dallas, No. 3 Washington. However, more than three times the money has been wagered on the Football Team.
The shop opened Dallas -5, then took sharp money on Washington that moved it to 4. WFT has won its past four games and, at 6-6, is on the cusp of the NFC playoff picture.
“The public, as usual, will be on the Cowboys,” says Stoneback. “With the sharps on Washington, it’ll be one of those Pros vs. Joes games.”
Baltimore Ravens (8-3, 5-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-5-1, 4-7)
NFL – Sun (12/12) @ 1 p.m. ET
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Betting Line: Browns -2.5, Total 42.5
Certain outlets made Baltimore a 1-point favorite on their look-ahead lines that are released a week in advance, which BetMGM doesn’t produce. Stoneback opened Browns -1.5, which has moved a point.
That reflects more tickets and money being directed toward Cleveland.
“That’s another game … the whole NFL, this year, has been difficult to figure out,” says Stoneback. “We thought Baltimore would run away with the division weeks back, but the Ravens have struggled a bit.”
A week after tossing a career-worst four interceptions, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson was sacked a career-high seven times last week in a defeat at Pittsburgh.
Cleveland gives up only 257 yards of offense in its own yard, No. 2 in the NFL. Its issues are with its own offense, though, as it averages 18.5 points, the sixth-lowest home figure in the league, inside FirstEnergy.
And over their past three games, the Browns have achieved an NFL-low 0.166 points per play.
Las Vegas Raiders (6-6, 5-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-4, 5-7)
NFL – Sun (12/12) @ 1 p.m. ET
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Caesars Betting Line: Chiefs -9.5, Total 48
Sharp money arrived at BetMGM on Tuesday, driving Stoneback’s opening total of 49 down a point.
“I don’t know if that was due to sharps thinking the number was too high or weather,” he says, “or a combination of both.”
It’s expected to be 49 degrees and sunny, with a 15-mph wind, at kickoff, with the wind dissipating and the temperature rising a bit as the game progresses.
In the Chiefs’ five-game winning streak, they’ve allowed foes an average of 11.2 points. They have a one-game lead over the Chargers in the AFC West, two over both Denver and Vegas.
NFL · Sun (12/12) @ 4:25pm ET
| SF 49ers | at | CIN Bengals |
| Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio | ||
San Francisco 49ers (6-6, 5-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5, 6-6)
NFL – Sun (12/12) @ 4:25 p.m. ET
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Betting Line: 49ers -1.5, Total 48.5
This is the flip that intrigued Stoneback, who opened Bengals -1.5. It’s most common, he says, for a short home underdog to switch to becoming the favorite.
“It’s unusual for the visitor to flip to the favorite,” he says. “The 49ers looked like they were going on a roll, then they lose at Seattle. The Bengals seem like they’re a really good team, then the next week they’re a really bad team. Very inconsistent.
“This is a tough one.”
Over their past three games, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been averaging 9 yards per pass, tops in the league. On the season, Garoppolo is second at 8.5 yards per attempt, Joe Burrow of the Bengals is third at 8.3.
At home, the Bengals allow a fifth-highest 269 passing yards per game. On the road, San Fran yields a fourth-lowest 196.
NFL · Sun (12/12) @ 4:25pm ET
| BUF Bills | at | TB Buccaneers |
| Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida | ||
Buffalo Bills (7-5, 6-5-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3, 6-6)
NFL – Sun (12/12) @ 4:25 p.m. ET
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Betting Line: Buccaneers -3, Total 53.5
Tampa averages a league-best 38.4 points at home, Buffalo allows a paltry 14.3 points on the road. Only New England (11.3) has been stingier away from home.
The Bucs are riding a +1.7 turnover margin over their past three games that is second in the league, but that’s a staple—their +1.4 turnover margin at home ties them with Green Bay atop the NFL.
Chicago Bears (4-8, 4-8) at Green Bay Packers (9-3, 10-2)
NFL – Sun (12/12) @ 8:20 p.m. ET
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
PointsBet Betting Line: Packers -13, Total 43
At kickoff, it is expected to be 34 degrees (26, with a 12-mph wind chill). Snow is not expected, and the breeze should tail off. Welcome to the Tundra, where Green Bay has won 11 of its past 13 games against its arch enemy.
When Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers plays the entire game (he got knocked out early of a loss to the Bears here in November 2013), however, that record is 11-1. The average score in those games is Green Bay 28.4, Chicago 14.
Rodgers is 22-5 lifetime against his nemesis. In average home scoring margin this season, the Packers’ +13.4-point margin is second to Tampa Bay’s +21.6.
The Bears’ -10.7 road margin is fourth-worst in the league, and their 14.3 average is next to last. These two are a combined 16-8 to Under. And under coach Matt Nagy, the Bears are 41-20 in first-half ‘unders,’ 9-3 this season.
At BetMGM, money has sliced the line from 13.5 and the total from 44.5.
“We have more money on the Bears than we do the Packers, but twice as many tickets written on the Packers,” says Stoneback. “The public is on the Packers, Cowboys and Bucs every week, and this game is no different.
“The sharp money will be on the double-digit dog, but the public will be trying to bail out on the Packers. That’s one of their favorite teams when kickoff comes.”
Los Angeles Rams (8-4, 5-7) at Arizona Cardinals (10-2, 9-3)
NFL – Mon (12/13) @ 8:15 p.m. ET
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Betting Line: Cardinals -2.5, Total 51.5
The Rams average 32.9 points on the road, more than 10 above their home average (22.6). In a league full of funky stats, that might be one of the funkier differentials.
Away from home, L.A. averages 0.447 points per play, fifth-best in the league. On its own field, the Cards have averaged 0.380 ppp, in the middle of the NFL.
While quarterback Kyler Murray nursed an ankle injury, the Cardinals won two of three games. He came back last week (throwing 11-for-15, for 123 yards and two touchdowns) to guide Arizona to a 33-22 victory in Chicago.
“Another Pros vs. Joes deal,” says Stoneback. “There are twice as many tickets on the Cardinals, but there’s twice as much money on the Rams. By Monday, the public taking a two-loss team with Murray over the Rams might drive that back up.
“But if that thing touches three, and I don’t think it will, sharp money will come in on the Rams.”
Also read: Week 14 odds and early moves | Week 15 look-ahead lines
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