NFL Week 16 features a robust slate with eight games scheduled during the early Sunday window (1 p.m. ET, 10 a.m. PT). We’ve got you covered with odds, betting analysis, and picks for all eight games.
Baltimore Ravens (8-6, 7-7 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6, 7-7 ATS)
DraftKings Line: Bengals -3 (45)
The skinny: Sole possession of first place will be at stake in the AFC North in the teams’ second meeting of the year.
Facts: Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson, who missed last week’s game against Green Bay with a sprained ankle, was absent from practice Wednesday. Thus, it’s likely Tyler Huntley will get his third career start and second in a row.
In their Week 7 meeting, the Bengals had one of the most stunning wins of the season, 41-17 in Baltimore as a 6.5-point underdog against a Ravens team that had won five in a row. The Bengals’ defense had five sacks, and Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow threw for a career-high 416 yards.
Analysis: The Ravens’ offense has showed a lot of spunk with Huntley, with 10 receptions apiece last week by TE Mark Andrews and WR Marquise Brown in a 31-30 loss to Green Bay that included a failed 2-point try in the final minute.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, was unimpressive in a 15-10 win over Denver last week that included only 12 first downs, tying the team low this season.
Ravens at Bengals Pick
Ravens 28, Bengals 24
The Patriots were a a 2-point favorite to open and remain that way at BetMGM.
Buffalo Bills (8-6, 7-6-1 ATS) at New England Patriots (9-5, 9-5 ATS)
PointsBet Line: Patriots -2.5 (43.5)
The skinny: First place is at stake when the Bills and Patriots have a rematch of their bizarre bad-weather game of three weeks ago in Buffalo.
Facts: In that previous meeting, with wind gusts up to 40 mph and the wind chill in the mid-20s, the Patriots won 14-10, but with QB Mac Jones passing only three times for 19 yards.
RB Damien Harris led the Patriots rush attack with 111 yards and Rhamondre Stevenson had 24 carries for 78 yards. But Harris sat out last week’s 27-17 loss to Indianapolis and is questionable here (hamstring). Stevenson missed midweek drills with an illness.
For Buffalo, unvaccinated WR Cole Beasley (out, COVID) will not play, but then again, he had only one catch for 11 yards in that previous meeting.
Analysis: This time, with the temperature in the high 30s and with only 10 mph winds forecast, Bills QB Josh Allen should have more confidence throwing and maybe take aim at star WR Stefon Diggs more than just seven times. And with RB Devin Singletary getting 22 carries last week vs. Carolina, that’s a good sign Allen won’t have to carry the running load, too.
Bills at Patriots Pick
Bills 27, Patriots 20
The Chargers opened at -10.5 over Houston, dropped to 8.5 at some sites mid-week and settled in at -10 across the board, including FanDuel.
L.A. Chargers (8-6, 7-7 ATS) at Houston Texans (3-11, 6-8 ATS)
Line: Chargers -10 (45.5)
The skinny: The Chargers, now two games behind K.C. with two weeks left in the season, now will be putting their focus on climbing up the wild-card standings.
Facts: L.A. will be looking to snap back a week after suffering a crushing 34-28 home loss to Kansas City after taking a 28-21 lead on a TD with 2:19 left, but then giving up a tying TD and another in overtime.
The Chargers, who are a double-digit favorite for the first time this season, might have to go without top RB Austin Ekeler, who went on the COVID list this week. He was quoted as saying, “It’s not looking good.”
The Texans, who are a double-digit dog for the eighth time, battered the host Jaguars 30-16 last week to give rookie QB Davis Mills his first win in eight starts.
Analysis: The Texans’ win is probably an indication of the troubles going on in Jacksonville more than any major progress being made by Houston, which has been held to less than 10 points in six games this season, including two shutouts.
If Ekeler has to miss a game, for the Chargers’ sake it came at a good time against the league’s worst rush defense. And as for Houston’s last-ranked offense, it’s averaging 37.2 yards a game less than the next worst team.
Chargers at Texans pick
Chargers 35, Texans 14
L.A. was a 3-point pick to open and remains that way at most sites.
L.A. Rams (10-4, 7-7 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (7-7, 8-6 ATS)
Line: Rams -3 (49)
The skinny: The Rams will be looking to clinch a playoff berth with a victory and even take over first in the NFC West if the Cardinals lose on Christmas Day.
Facts: The Rams originally were going to have the scheduling advantage, playing Seattle last Sunday and with Minnesota at Chicago a day later. But when the L.A. game was pushed back because of COVID issues, now the Rams have the shorter prep/rest week.
They at least got a boost Wednesday when right tackle Rob Havenstein rejoined a team that’s won three in a row after a three-game losing streak.
The Vikings were hardly dazzling in their 17-9 win in Chicago, gaining only 193 yards with QB Kirk Cousins going only 12-for-24 for 87 yards against what one analyst referred to as a “practice squad secondary.” It would help if WR Adam Thielen (questionable, ankle) returns. He was limited in drills this week.
But Minnesota’s defense came through in the clutch against Chicago’s 29th-rated offense, taking over on downs three times inside its 25.
Analysis: The difference here could well be Rams WR Cooper Kupp, by far the league’s top receiver, carving his way through a Vikings secondary that’s allowed 25 receiving touchdowns. QB Matthew Stafford surely will take notice.
And until Thielen is a sure thing in the lineup, Cousins could suffer again.
Rams at Vikings Pick
Rams 30, Vikings 17
The Eagles opened as a 10-point pick over the Giants, and for the most part, it has stayed there.
N.Y. Giants (4-10, 6-8 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-7, 8-6 ATS)
Line: Eagles -9.5 (40.5)
The skinny: This is a rematch of a game three weeks ago in which the Giants upset the Eagles 13-7, but lost starting quarterback Daniel Jones to a season-ending neck injury.
Facts: Eagles coach Nick Sirianni tested positive for COVID Wednesday. If he can’t be with the team Sunday, offensive coordinator Shane Steichen will call plays while passing game coordinator Kevin Patullo will be the sideline boss.
The Eagles had their fifth 200-yard rushing game in Tuesday night’s 27-17 win over Washington when they totaled 238. That’s still one shy of Baltimore’s six such games last regular season, and then another in the playoffs.
Giants coach Joe Judge hasn’t decided if he’ll go with second-team QB Mike Glennon, who has bombed in his previous three starts, or third-teamer Jake Fromme, who came in late vs. Dallas last week. But Judge downplayed Fromme’s relative success since it came with the Cowboys playing prevent.
Analysis: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts had the worst game of his two-year career in that previous meeting, with a 17.5 rating that was the third worst for any starter this season, along with three INTs. If he just plays ordinary, the Eagles should thrive against Glennon, who had three interceptions and was yanked late.
And if Fromme gets the call, he probably won’t be prepared for a team that’s not sitting back.
Giants at Eagles Pick
Eagles 28, Giants 10
The Bucs were 11.5-point favorites over the Panthers to open but the number has dropped to 10 on most boards.
Tampa Bay Bucs (10-4, 7-7 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (5-9, 5-9 ATS)
Line: Bucs -10 (43.5)
The skinny: Tampa Bay will try again to clinch the NFC South, this time against a Carolina team that’s in a late-season swoon with four straight losses (ATS, too).
Facts: Tom Brady and the Bucs are coming off their fourth straight regular-season loss to New Orleans. And for the third time, they’ll rebound in a game against the Panthers. In 2020, they responded to the losses with a pair of spread-beating victories, 31-17 and 46-23. In the second game TB, outgained Carolina by 357 yards, the second biggest gap by anyone in 2020.
In the wake of the hamstring injury to RB Leonard Fournette (doubtful), the Bucs grabbed Le’Veon Bell off the discard pile. The Bucs also will be without WR Chris Godwin (torn ACL) and likely without WR Mike Evans (hamstring).
In Carolina, QB Cam Newton, whose losing streak with the Panthers is at 12 games, is scheduled to start again, but with coach Matt Rhule saying Sam Darnold, who’s been out with a shoulder injury, will get some work.
Analysis: Brady and the Bucs are indeed hurting, but Carolina might not have top receiver DJ Moore and RB Christian McCaffrey has been on season-ending IR for quite a while.
Chances are Brady won’t let the Bucs ease up on the attack after last week’s embarrassment. He might even get WR Antonio Brown back, too.
Bucs at Panthers Pick
Bucs 34, Panthers 13
The Falcons were 4.5-point favorites to open, but the line jumped to -5.5 at most books.
Detroit Lions (2-11-1, 9-5 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (6-8, 6-8 ATS)
Line: Falcons by -5.5 (42.5)
The skinny: The surging Lions, who have won two of their past three games, take on a Falcons team that limped home after a deflating defeat in San Francisco.
Facts: In Atlanta’s 31-13 loss to the 49ers, they turned the ball over on downs twice at the San Francisco 1, once at the 8 and settled for a FG from the 4. Over the Falcons’ past three games, they are only 1-for-6 scoring TDs on first-and-goal possessions.
Detroit is coming off the second-biggest upset victory of the year, a 30-12 home triumph over Arizona as a 13-point dog. But can the Lions carry that momentum? After their 29-27 win over Minnesota to end an 11-game winless streak, they followed up with a 38-10 drudging in Denver.
Analysis: Unlike the Falcons, the Lions had little trouble closing the deal on drives, scoring two of their three TDs on marches of 93 and 97 yards, their longest of the year.
And the Lions’ rushing game has perked up without injured star D’Andre Swift, with first-time starter Josh Reynolds (questionable, thigh) rushing for 112 yards against the Cardinals. Plus, QB Jared Goff is coming off his best game of the season.
Lions at Falcons Pick
Lions 23, Falcons 21
The Jets opened as a 1.5-point pick over the Jaguars, and it’s now a pick ’em at several books including Caesars Sportsbook.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12, 4-10 ATS) at NY Jets (3-11, 4-10 ATS)
PointsBet Line: Jets -1 (41.5)
The skinny: A Jaguars team rocked/overjoyed by the firing of its coach, Urban Meyer, two weeks ago, faces a Jets team that was rocked by COVID this week, including coach Robert Salah.
Facts: The league’s two worst-rated QBs will tangle when 31st-ranked Trevor Lawrence of Jacksonville (69.4, 9 TDs, 14 INTs) jousts with New York’s Zach Wilson (66.4, 6 TDs, 11 INTs). Edge, Jacksonville.
Analysis: Look, it’s getting late and it’s the holidays. Neither team deserves to win, so take the point.
Jaguars at Jets Pick
Jaguars 13, Jets 12
Last week: 9-7 ATS, 10-6 SU
Season total: 106-115-3 (.480) ATS; 136-87-1 (.610) SU
Also read: Super Bowl 2022 odds | Week 17 look-ahead lines
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