Ho-ho-ho! I am playing the role of Santa this holiday, giving out free NFL Week 16 player props and anytime touchdown scorer picks! We have two Christmas Day games and 12 games Sunday.
Week 15 was our best week of the season. We went 6-1 on player props (+4.61 units) and 1-3 on TD scorers (+5 units). Time to put ourselves on the ‘nice’ list and get another winning weekend under our belt.
Since we are taking shots on anytime touchdown scorer bets, our profitability is going up but our record is going down. With +800 longshots, like with Zack Wilson last week, one win is worth eight losses. It takes fewer winners to turn a profit when betting into longer odds like this.
Since Week 1 this year, our record is 82-86, but our profit is +15.53 units on one-unit bets across my weekly player prop and TD scorers articles and the free Gaming Today Playbook.
Below I preview the best NFL player prop bets for Week 16 on Christmas Weekend!
As always, follow the advice of Furio from The Sopranos …. “Bet with your head, not over it”
Week 16 Anytime TD Scorer Props
Rob Gronkowski to score a touchdown +130 (DraftKings)
Unfortunately, both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are out for the Bucs, leaving more opportunity for Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown from Tom Brady. This number should not be plus-money by any means, with Gronkowski the clear top red-zone option. His 2+ TD prop could be a good value at +750, but Brady looked so off last week, that is not a bet for me.
Joshua Kelley Anytime Touchdown Scorer +270 (BetRivers)
The backup running back for the Chargers is undervalued here at BetRivers. With Austin Ekeler on the COVID list, Justin Jackson is projected to get the majority of the work, but Kelley usually mixes in quite well. As the backup on a productive offense and in a potential blowout spot — Kelley shapes up as one of the best plays of this holiday weekend.
Week 16 Player Props
Courtland Sutton Over 2.5 Receptions +105 (BetMGM)
Teddy Bridgewater really honed in on Jerry Jeudy the last few weeks. When Drew Lock stepped last week when Bridgewater left the game with a head injury, he peppered his receivers with targets, aside from Jeudy, who didn’t get a target from Lock. Sutton had seven targets last week and had two catches, drew a defensive pass interference call, and had an eighth target negated by an offensive holding penalty. At plus-money, this is an excellent spot for Sutton against a bad Raiders secondary.
Javonte Williams Over 2.5 Receptions +105 (BetMGM)
Some more plus-money action on the Broncos with Lock at the helm. Lock turns the ball over a lot, but for stat-stuffing purposes, we prefer a gunslinger over a cautious QB. Javonte Williams caught all four of his targets last week and is Denver’s do-it-all running back.
Alexander Mattison Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts +100 (DraftKings)
A big number here, as Mattison is projected to get a ton of work with Dalvin Cook having tested positive. In three starts this year, Mattison had 26, 25, and 22 rush attempts. Mattison is consistently one of the most productive running backs in the league when he is the workhorse, which he will be with Cook sidelined.
Saturday NFL Prop Bets
Aaron Jones Over 49.5 Rushing Yards -115 (DraftKings) | AJ Dillon Under 48.5 Rushing Yards -113 (FanDuel)
Welcome back, star running back Aaron Jones. Jones appeared to be losing his grip on the starting gig, but AJ Dillon had a dud performance last week with seven carries for 21 yards. Jones on the other hand had an impressive 13 carries for 58 yards. Dillon played just 37% of snaps last week, whereas Jones played 63%. Back Jones to stay hot this weekend.
Carson Wentz Over 10.5 Rushing Yards -125 (PointsBet)
Big game on Saturday for Carson Wentz and the Colts. He had a whopping eight attempts last week and 17 yards. The low average isn’t concerning with this props bet. If Wentz gets even half of that volume this week against the Cardinals, he should be able to go ‘over’ 10.5 rushing yards Saturday.