A New Year’s edition of NFL player props! Here at Gaming Today, the grind to find props value does not stop, and there is much to dissect for Week 17. For instance, two games are projected for more than 50 total points — Chiefs vs. Bengals and Cardinals vs. Cowboys. If you are looking to add some player props or TD scorer bets you see below to your parlays, check out those two games expected to showcase plenty of points.
We begin with Week 17 touchdown scorer props, as we look to start 2022 with a bang!
As always, follow the advice of Furio from The Sopranos …. “Bet with your head, not over it”
Week 17 Anytime TD Scorer Props
Ronald Jones anytime touchdown scorer +108 | 2+ +525 (Caesars)
Caesars brings the heat to start the New Year! This line is -150 on other sportsbooks, implying a 60% chance; +108 odds translates to 48.08% implied. With a nearly 12% disagreement in the market, let’s take the value Caesars is offering and back Ronald Jones to find paydirt. Jones had 20 carries and a touchdown last week, while his backup Ke’Shawn Vaughn had seven carries and a touchdown himself.
There is some concern Vaughn could steal some carries, but the value supersedes the risk here. The Jets have given up a whopping 22 rushing touchdowns this season, by far the most in the league.
Antonio Brown to score a touchdown -120 (DraftKings)
Fed early and often last week, Antonio Brown has some lucrative incentives to hit these next two weeks. Last week, Brown had 10 catches for over 100 yards and no touchdowns. Expect him to get into the end zone as quickly as he can this week and maybe even twice. He is +400 to get two touchdowns, and the Jets are awful across the board.
— Joey Knight (@TBTimes_Bulls) December 26, 2021
Joe Burrow anytime TD scorer +510 (BetRivers)
In an expected shootout, Burrow should have some room to run Sunday. The Chiefs secondary has been impressive, but their run defense is their kryptonite. The Chiefs D has given up five rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, and none of them have come against Jalen Hurts. At +510, you could do much worse. These odds are excellent.
Week 17 Player Props
Sam Darnold Under 200.5 Passing Yards -115 (DraftKings)
Will the real Panthers QB please stand up? Last week, Darnold accounted for 44 snaps, good for 63% of offensive plays. Cam Newton mixed in plenty with the remaining 37%. Asking Darnold to throw for 200 yards in a timeshare against the Saints, one of the hottest defenses in the NFL, is a tough ask.
Taylor Heinicke Under 205.5 Passing Yards -115 (PointsBet)
Another ‘under’ for the weekend. Taylor Heinicke has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each of his last three games. The Eagles do an excellent job running the ball, so the hope here is Washington is on the sidelines for much of the game while winning the field position battle.
Patrick Mahomes Over 13.5 Rushing Yards -120 (FanDuel)
Mahomes tends to run in close games. Last week, he had no carries, because the Steelers were not even remotely competitive. The Bengals offense was on fire last week, which could continue Sunday. Mahomes scampering for a first down or two is in the cards. This is a bet on the game to be close as much as it is a bet on Mahomes to run — the two outcomes are clearly related.
Duke Johnson Under 38.5 Rushing Yards -115 (DraftKings)
A full-blown backfield committee has surfaced in Miami. Duke Johnson has looked fresh in his last two games, but Myles Gaskin and Phillip Lindsay are getting their share of touches. We expect Duke to get only about a third of the snaps for Miami on Sunday, and the Titans run defense ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (962 allowed in 15 games).