Fade the New York Jets futures and ponder whether to back both underdog teams and Under totals in Week 2.
These are the midweek betting patterns gamblers weigh before Sunday’s main body of games and Thursday’s week-opening tilt between the host Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings.
League-wide offenses seek to improve after sluggish Week 1 efforts by top performers who barely played in the preseason.
Underdogs were 10-6 against the Week 1 spread, while the Under was 12-4.
The Jets have a different definition of “Under.” Sportsbook optimism about their Super Bowl chances has gone underwater.
New York suffered a crippling blow, losing four-time MVP and major acquisition Aaron Rodgers for the season with a torn Achilles on his first series Monday night.
It hardly mattered that they went on to topple the Buffalo Bills, 22-16, in overtime.
Sportsbooks across the gambling industry dumped the Jets like a bad debt on Tuesday, dropping them from the area of +1400 to +6500 in Super Bowl futures.
What a way to start Week 2. Here’s a look at how the books and public see the NFL wagering landscape early Wednesday morning.
There were no double-digit point spreads, and here are our NFL Week 2 betting trends.
More action: NFL Week 2 odds | Super Bowl 58 odds | NFL MVP odds
Vikings vs. Eagles TNF Bounce Around the Push Number
DraftKings was the first major book to move the Eagles off the -7 number, which, like -3, is a trap for the push. The book placed Philly at -6.5 Tuesday afternoon, with a little extra juice of -115. Other books, like BetMGM and FanDuel, kept Philadelphia at –7 with the standard -110.
The new DraftKings number, as expected, fueled Philadelphia fire. The Eagles went from 52% handle at -7 to 56% at -6.5. Philadelphia backers saw this as their buying opportunity and pushed the handle percentage all the way up to 64%.
By midnight, the number was back up to -7 and this one could bounce around some more.
Vikings’ bettors, conversely, are set to unload if the number ever reaches +7.5.
This is going to be an interesting tug-of-war for value-hunting bettors.
The Eagles notched a shaky Week 1 cover, surviving 25-20 against the New England Patriots at -3.5. They had to bat back a two-point conversion and a game-ending drive to preserve the win and cover.
Minnesota stumbled as the -6.5 chalk against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, losing outright 20-17 at home.
Although early money went to Philadelphia after Tuesday’s first line move, Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, expects sharp bettors to target the dogs league-wide.
“Some of these teams getting a touchdown or more are pretty good and I think the sharps are going to be looking at the Vikings, the Las Vegas Raiders getting 8.5 (against the host Bills, which reached +9.5 at FanDuel) and the Jets getting 9.5 (at the Dallas Cowboys),” Avello told Gaming Today. “You could tease that Jets’ game up to 16 points and think you have a good cushion. Remember, they did win their first game.”
They did, but in the eyes of the books, they lost a lot more.
Read more: Vikings vs. Eagles odds, props, predictions
Bookmakers Leave Mr. Rodgers’ Neighborhood
Rodgers’ damaging injury sparked a southbound train for New York Jets futures, with the bookmakers as passengers.
“Everything has changed dramatically now,” Avello said. “When the Jets brought in Zach Wilson, they played like they did last year. You saw what happened.
“Yes, the Jets won the game, but their offense didn’t do much out there. Let’s face it, in this league, if you don’t have all of your pieces together, you are in trouble. The Jets do have a strong defense, but we don’t believe this is enough to carry them every week.
“Even after losing to the Jets, Buffalo is ahead of them and the Jets are +600 to win the AFC East (third of four teams).
“I am not sure Aaron Rodgers was even going to do well in the first place the way he looked in his limited action,” he added. “Now they will have to go with Zach Wilson and that’s not good for this team either.”
Rodgers’ offseason signing was an epic development for the Jets, who ascended like wildfire in futures betting.
But the perceived Messiah had also looked brittle in recent years and the Jets’ offensive line failed to protect him.
Rodgers, who turns 40 in December, is not mobile like younger quarterbacks. And the Jets’ futures bet, which once took hefty money, now looks like a liability the books won’t eat.
NFL Week 2 Early Choices of the Bettors
It will be interesting to see how public money and sharp money line up.
While sharp money is expected on the dogs, the general public weighed in early on several favorites at DraftKings.
The New York Giants, of all teams, notched the highest support at 92% of the handle and 73% of the bets at -5.5 against the host Arizona Cardinals. Bettors may believe that the Giants won’t give up the early special teams and then defensive touchdowns, which set their tone for a 40-0 shellacking by the Dallas Cowboys last week.
And thus the Giants, the only NFL team not to score in Week 1, gained the biggest early support from gamblers, who expect a bounce back.
The Kansas City Chiefs got 91% of the handle and 79% of the bets at -3 against the host Jacksonville Jaguars. This line reflects an expectation that Travis Kelce will return for Kansas City. He missed Week 1 with a knee injury and the Chiefs lost to the Detroit Lions, 21-20.
The Miami Dolphins and explosive Tua Tagovailoa recorded 84% of the handle and bets at -2.5 against the host New England Patriots.
The Cowboys earned 83% of the handle and 68% of the bets against the Jets at -9.5. Avello anticipates a lot of late sharp money on the Jets.
The San Francisco 49ers and their systematic machine earned 78% of the bets and 68% of the money at -7.5 against the host Los Angeles Rams, who come off a 30-13 road triumph against the Seattle Seahawks.
One matchup reflects a split sentiment between the gamblers.
The Raiders have 47% of the handle, but 56% of the bets against the Bills. Las Vegas looked good in nipping the Denver Broncos, 17-16, while the Bills stumbled against the Jets and did not look good. The betting line anticipates redemption for them.
As for totals, the biggest Under support goes to the Dallas-Jets game, with 95% of the money backing Under 40.
The most definitive Over involves the Chiefs-Jaguars getting 76% for the Over 51 points.
Bettors Never Sweat Alone
The books are in the fire with them.
Gamblers who white-knuckled through Jacksonville’s 31-21 triumph against the Indianapolis Colts at -4.5 mirrored the plight of DraftKings.
The Colts took a couple of shots at the end zone rather than kicking a field goal to create a one-score game in the final minute.
This had backdoor cover written all over it. But Jacksonville kept Indy out of the end zone.
It was a win for the customers and a loss for the book, which was on the hook for heavy Jacksonville money. DraftKings also took a hit with the Miami Dolphins’ last-minute touchdown to upend the Los Angeles Chargers, 36-34, at +3.
A late play that either changes or preserves an outcome will have multi-million-dollar betting implications in many games, Avello told Gaming Today.
DraftKings did do well with Philadelphia holding off New England, 25-20, at -3.5. An avalanche of sharp money at New England +4.5 was on the DraftKings books. But Philly broke up a two-point conversion and survived a late New England drive to save the chalk bettors — and the book.
The Jets’ victory over the Bills at +2.5 in the biggest handle of the week was a win for the book, as was the Dallas Cowboys’ romp over the Giants.
Big Blue betting with the host Giants at +3.5 on the national Sunday Night stage created a big win for the book when they flopped.
Late Flurry Fortifies High-End Contest
Avello said that six bettors signed up last Saturday, pushing the final field to 19 for the book’s season-long $1 million challenge, called The Big One.
It carries an entry fee of $50,000 for the season. Avello said his organization was satisfied with luring some big players from other books and coming close to the breakeven point of 20 needed to cover the prize money ($500,000 for first, $300,000 for second, $200,000 for third).
Division and Super Bowl Odds (BetMGM)
Week 1 betting action and injuries are impacting prices on division and Super Bowl probabilities at BetMGM.
Division Futures
AFC East
- Favorite: Dolphins +140
- Highest Ticket %: Jets 28.8%
- Highest Handle %: Bills 57.7%
- Biggest Liability: Bills
AFC North
- Favorite: Bengals and Ravens +200
- Highest Ticket %: Steelers 34.3%
- Highest Handle %: Steelers 32.7%
- Biggest Liability: Steelers
AFC South
- Favorite: Jaguars -190
- Highest Ticket %: Titans 51.6%
- Highest Handle %: Titans 47.0%
- Biggest Liability: Titans
AFC West
- Favorite: Chiefs -150
- Highest Ticket %: Chiefs 35.6%
- Highest Handle %: Chiefs 79.4%
- Biggest Liability: Chiefs
NFC East
- Favorite: Eagles -110
- Highest Ticket %: Eagles 32.1%
- Highest Handle %: Eagles 64.4%
- Biggest Liability: Commanders
NFC North
- Favorite: Lions -110
- Highest Ticket %: Lions 45.1%
- Highest Handle %: Lions 54.6%
- Biggest Liability: Lions
NFC South
- Favorite: Saints +120
- Highest Ticket %: Saints 49.0%
- Highest Handle %: Saints 65.5%
- Biggest Liability: Saints
NFC West
- Favorite: 49ers -400
- Highest Ticket %: Seahawks 42.2%
- Highest Handle %: 49ers 78.9%
- Biggest Liability: 49ers
Super Bowl Futures
Line Movement (Open to Current)
- Eagles +900 to +700
- Lions +2500 to +1800
- Jets +2500 to +5000
Highest Ticket %
- Bengals 9.7%
- Eagles 9.1%
- Chiefs 8.8%
Highest Handle %
- Bills 11.7%
- Chiefs 10.1%
- Bengals 9.1%
Biggest Liability
- Steelers
- Cowboys
- Lions
AFC
- Favorite: Chiefs +350
- Highest Ticket %: Chiefs 13.2%
- Highest Handle %: Bills 16.2%
- Biggest Liability: Steelers
NFC
- Favorite: Eagles and 49ers +300
- Highest Ticket %: Lions 40.5%
- Highest Handle %: Lions 39.3%
- Biggest Liability: Lions
FanDuel Stock Watch: Niners Hot, Jets Not
FanDuel has the Niners up to +800, tied for second with the Eagles behind pacesetting Kansas City’s +600 in Super Bowl futures.
It is rare for a team that lost its first game to maintain the top spot, but the expected return of Kelce is baked into the line for the 0-1 Chiefs.
Buffalo at +1000 and Dallas at +1200 round out the FanDuel top 5.
How big is the loss of Rodgers? The Jets, who just beat the Bills, are at +6500.
FanDuel was the first major book to move the Raiders to +9.5 against the Bills this week.
The biggest moneyline price is +350 for the Jets against the Cowboys.
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