NFL Week 2 Expert Picks: Top Bookies Battle Consensus Selections Again Dominated by Favorites

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Other than a double-digit underdog at the top of the list, oddsmakers competing in Bookies Battle 2022 again have a heavy lean to favorites, as the second through sixth most popular NFL Week 2 picks are all laying points.

One of these top-six selections has already lost against the spread, with the Chiefs (-3.5) letting the Chargers in through the back door on Thursday night in a 27-24 win. Despite the ATS loss, 65% of pool participants scraped a half-point of closing-line value with KC going off -4.

Four picks are tied for the top Week 2 consensus pick, and at least two, in addition to the Chiefs, of these are on pace for solid CLV.

NFL Week 2 Expert Picks, Bookies Battle 2022

Consensus PickContest LineFriday's Market LineOpponent% of Picks
Bears+10-9.5at Packers68.3%
Bengals-7-7at Cowboys68.3%
Browns-6-6.5vs Jets68.3%
Lions-2.5-1.5vs Commanders68.3%
Bills-10-10vs Titans66.7%
Chiefs-3.5-4vs Chargers65.0%
Panthers+2.5+2at Giants61.7%
Seahawks+9+9at 49ers60.0%
Steelers+1+2vs Patriots58.3%
Vikings+1.5+2at Eagles55.0%
Cardinals+5.5+5.5at Raiders53.3%
Falcons+10.5+10at Rams53.3%
Saints+3+2.5vs Bucs53.3%
Ravens-3.5-3.5vs Dolphins51.7%
Texans+10+10at Broncos51.7%
Colts-4-3.5at Jaguars51.7%

About 68% of the contest field sees a half-point of value with Browns -6.

nfl week 2 expert picks, jets vs browns
Myles Garrett, Martin Emerson Jr., and the Browns are a top consensus pick among our experts for NFL Week 2 (Winslow Townson/AP Images for Panini)

The outlier in terms of CLV is Lions -2.5. That spread is down to a -1.5 market price ahead of the Commanders’ visit to Detroit.

Of the games with spreads of 10 points or more, our bookmakers are taking the underdog in three of them, topped by the Bears catching 10 at Green Bay. Bills -10 vs. the Titans is the exception.

As the above chart shows, after the Bills, it’s a lot of dogs. In fact, contestants are taking the points in 10 of the 16 Week 2 games.

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Early Leaders in Bookies Battle 2022

Kenny Martin (Caesars Sportsbook, Horseshoe Tunica) and Brad Carpenter (DraftKings, Scarlet Pearl Casino) took the early lead with 11 winners apiece in Week 1.

That pair is closely followed by a group of 10 contestants who went 10-6 against the spread to open the season.

Overall, it was a middling sort of week for the pool, with consensus picks going 7-9.

About 70 sportsbook VPs, directors, and managers – including some of the most expert oddsmakers in the business – entered the Bookies Battle this season.

Check out the standings and follow along with the pool right here.

Bookmaker Spotlight: BetMGM’s Jason Scott

We caught up this week with one of our Bookies Battle 2022 contestants, Jason Scott, VP Trading at BetMGM.

Scott, who relocated from his native Australia to the US in December 2019, offered his thoughts on the US gambling business. Among the takeaways:

  • Fixed odds is the “only was to reinvigorate” horse racing in this country
  • Week 1 handle set records at BetMGM, and the book’s hold percentage was “ridiculous”
  • Changing the American expression of odds – ie, -225, +350 – to a digital format will happen eventually (3.25, 4.50), even though seasoned betting professionals will “throw a fit” if it changes

Read it here: Q&A with BetMGM’s Jason Scott

About the Author
Marcus DiNitto

Marcus DiNitto

Sr. News Editor
Marcus DiNitto is Senior News Editor for Gaming Today. He has been managing editor at national sports websites SportsBusiness Daily, Sporting News, and The Linemakers, as well as with licensed operator USA Sports Gaming. Marcus graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and his MBA from the University of North Carolina-Charlotte.

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