Gamblers take two messages from a rollicking Week 3 into a pair of Monday Night contests.
Check out our NFL Week 3 betting results.
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NFL Theme No. 1: Major Players Will Be Game-Time Decisions
Quarterback Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals and wide receiver Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams are still questionable. Reports are encouraging for Nacua, who has over 100 yards in each of his first two games, while Burrow’s status is less certain.
There are no similar game-time calls for the Philadelphia Eagles versus the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Eagles will be motivated by the chance to sit atop the NFC East.
NFL Theme No. 2: Backups Just Delivered a Betting Jackpot
Bettors with minority conviction savor a Dog Day Afternoon for the Ages.
Moneyline riches greeted the 5% of bettors backing the Arizona Cardinals (+470 at DraftKings). The Cardinals at +12.5 betting odds throttled the Dallas Cowboys 28-16. This happened with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
The reward for new head coach Jonathan Gannon is a visit to the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers in Week 4.
The Indianapolis Colts at +300 notched an overtime triumph over the Baltimore Ravens behind second-string signal caller Gardner Minshew. A tip of the hat to the 7% of bettors who forecast it.
There’s nothing that says Minshew can’t again start ahead of injured Anthony Richardson when the 2-1 Colts host the Rams.
The Houston Texans at +300 ML and +7.5 had their regulars in. But their main player is a rookie, who stepped up big. CJ Stroud and Co. toyed with the Jacksonville Jaguars, thumping them 37-17 as a huge road dog. That was a major collection for 6% of the gamblers.
The Texans look to make it two straight when hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4.
While some bettors celebrate nice collections, the sportsbooks do a collective victory dance. These vanquished moneyline chalks were linked to parlays that won’t be paid out.
NFL Week 3 Betting Recap
Gamblers enjoyed their dog bones, even while favorites were 8-6 and the Under was 9-5 through Sunday night. Here are some betting takeaways:
Terrific Tua and Miami Moolah
What a team.
Behind all-world quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the Miami Dolphins scorched the Denver Broncos 70-20. You read that right.
It’s the most points scored by an NFL team since the then-Washington Redskins plastered the New York Giants, 71-42, in 1966. Many of our gamblers remember that game, they just could not bet it legally outside of Las Vegas.
Those who wagered on this one had a feast, as the Dolphins amassed an eye-popping 726 yards. Tagovailoa had four touchdowns, sparking victories not only in this game but in several linked props.
Keep your eye on Devon Achane, who broke out with four touchdowns. He also notched more than 200 yards and collected a 67-yard scoring run. Some of his production occurred after the game got out of hand, but Miami may have more luxury positions like this within games.
The Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills in a premier Week 4 matchup.
Chiefs and Bills Have Shaken Off Week 1 Losses
It was only two weeks ago that the Chiefs were toppled by the Detroit Lions and the Bills lost to the New York Jets.
Looks like two years ago now.
The Bills silenced the Washington Commanders, 37-3, as a road dog. Washington entered at 2-0, but the teams were on another level.
Buffalo hosts Miami in a salivating Week 4 matchup, while Washington visits Philadelphia, where it beat the Eagles last year.
Kansas City humiliated the Chicago Bears 41-10.
Travis Kelce, sidelined in Week 1 because of a hyperextended knee, moved well in this game. He caught seven passes, scored once, and served as a reminder of Kansas City’s firepower when he’s in.
Patrick Mahomes threw three touchdowns but also hobbled in a similar fashion to that first-round playoff game against the Jacksonville Jaguars last year. He was fine and the Chiefs visit the Jets this week, but Mahomes backers got a scare.
Vikings Are in Free Fall
There is a serious coaching problem here.
The team has forgotten how to close drives and games.
It has already suffered seven fumbles this year, just one less than all of last season when it went 13-4.
Time management killed them at the end of Sunday’s 28-24 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Vikings make crucial late mistakes in nearly every game.
Minnesota visits the Carolina Panthers in a battle of 0-3 teams.
Keep an eye on Adam Thielen for the Panthers. Beyond scoring a touchdown and notching 145 yards, he was the clutch target all game long for quarterback Andy Dalton in Carolina’s 37-27 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
Thielen will be a heavily played anytime scorer, especially if Dalton starts again over injured Bryce Young.
Spread Trends: Teams That Have Cashed — and Dashed — the Hopes of Bettors
A select few teams remain perfect against the spread this season.
The Dolphins, 49ers, and Cardinals have hit the pay button for their bettors every week.
The Rams brought a 2-0 spread mark into the Monday night battle against the Bengals.
The Bucs are 2-0 on the spread and moneyline prior to hosting Philadelphia.
Several teams have yet to beat the number.
That list includes the New York Giants, the league’s top team against the spread at 14-5 last season.
The G Men have been throttled by the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers. They did notch a moneyline win against the Arizona Cardinals but did not cover.
New York hosts Seattle next Monday night. The Giants often get on some kind of midseason cover roll. Perhaps it will take the return of Saquon Barkley in the coming weeks for them to do that.
The Denver Broncos are 0-3 against the line and are in shambles. They face another team in shambles, the Chicago Bears, who are also winless on the spread and moneyline.
The Vikings and Panthers are both 0-2-1 against the number when they meet in Week 4.
The Bengals bring an 0-2 mark into the Monday night battle.
Who Saw This Coming?
The Indianapolis Colts, under new head coach Shane Steichen, have a 2-1 mark and sit atop the AFC South.
Steichen and Arizona head coach Jonathan Gannon, who left Philadelphia together in the offseason, notched upset victories on the same day.
NFL Division Betting Odds, Where Deals Still Exist
The NFC North may arguably become a two-team race between the Detroit Lions at -105 and the Green Bay Packers at +155 at DraftKings. The 0-3 Vikings and Bears don’t figure to threaten.
The Lions visit the Packers on Thursday night to start Week 4. It would not be surprising for the winner to shed 40 basis points of value. Detroit might be -145 with a victory and Green Bay could go down near even money.
Bettors with a division hunch may be looking to back one of these teams in a futures wager before this matchup.
In the NFC East, the Cowboys slid to a buy-on-the-dip number of +140 after losing to the Cardinals. It might go up a little more if the Eagles beat Tampa Bay.
Excellent value sits in the NFC South.
Tampa Bay is the +310 third choice.
The Falcons are +165 second favorite and the New Orleans Saints are the +130 chalk. Should Tampa Bay defeat Philly, its odds will go significantly down.
Major Dice Rolls from NFL Week 3
Several plays illustrated the risky business some coaches prefer. Here’s a sample:
“Everybody Loves a Gambler…
The Las Vegas Raiders took 4th and inches to the house in the first quarter of the Sunday night game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jimmy Garoppolo found Davante Adams deep for a 32-yard strike.
The Vikings faced 4th-and-6 from the Los Angeles Chargers 36-yard line, down 21-10. A 53-yard field goal was possible to make this a one-score game, but the Vikings went for it. Winner 7, as Kirk Cousins hit K.J. Osborn for a 36-yard touchdown.
….Until He Loses”
Chargers fans and bettors could not believe that Brandon Staley, protecting a 28-24 lead with less than two minutes to go, would go for it on 4th-and-1 from his own 24.
He did. And it failed.
The Chargers appeared to have handed the game to Minnesota.
But Staley was exonerated by an even bigger blunder.
Dunce Caps
Vikings
Minnesota had converted a 4th-down pass to the Los Angeles 6 with just more than 40 seconds left. The Vikings had no timeouts. But it still took more than 30 seconds to get the next play off, and it looked disorganized. A Cousins pass was tipped and picked in the end zone to preserve the triumph.
Had he spiked the ball, Cousins could have saved about 15 seconds, which was enough time for two more plays.
Bears Coach Matt Eberflus
Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, and Burrow have already suffered major injuries this year.
Richardson even sustained a concussion.
Why then, would Eberflus have Justin Fields trying to run in a touchdown when his team trailed 41-0 in the fourth quarter on Sunday? Fields took a hard hit and was down for a while.
There was no reason for him to be in.
And to double down on the bad move, the Bears then let Fields come out for the next series.
He will be evaluated this week for a head injury.
DraftKings, BetMGM, and FanDuel Betting Highlights
DraftKings
One DraftKings bettor placed $5,000 on the Colts’ moneyline of +310. It returned $20,500.
Another was happy to be a whale with the points, wagering $54,886 on the Colts +8 at -110 to get back $104,020.
One gambler turned 10 into 20. As in thousands. The wager was an anytime score for Justin Jefferson. The $10,000 bet returned $20,500.
BetMGM Needed the Dogs
“Bettors have little faith in many of the 0-2 NFC teams. As a result, the Bears, Cardinals, and Panthers covering as underdogs are the most important needs for the book this weekend,” said Christian Cipollini, Sports Trader, BetMGM.
The book didn’t get the Bears and Panthers but may have at least held its own with the Cardinals’ big triumph.
It also did well with the Atlanta Falcons-Detroit Lions game. That was the book’s most heavily bet game and featured the most bet team with Atlanta +3.
The Falcons fell 20-6 to the Lions, a big win for the Under 46 as it was the book’s highest bet Over selection.
Here’s a breakdown of the most popular props:
Winners
Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 receptions (-105). This was the prop with the most bets. He had nine.
Hill to clear 84.5 receiving yards (-110) was a runaway victory. He got 54 yards of it on the first TD of the game en route to snaring 157 yards.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 13.5 rushing attempts (-120). He carried 19 times.
Jared Goff Under 267.5 passing yards (-115). A great call by the bettors. He wound up with 243.5 in what was projected to be a high-scoring affair.
Losers
Dameon Pierce Over 43.5 rushing yards (-115). He collected only 31 rushing yards and a score.
FanDuel
Highest Scoring Team
Miami was the juggernaut victor in this category. The Dolphins’ 70 points earned them +1100 as the fourth choice on the board.
Lowest Scoring Team
Talk about deflation.
In Week 2, the Washington Commanders tallied 35 points and nearly became the highest-scoring team.
In Week 3, they notched just three points against the Bills and tied with the Tennessee Titans, 27-3 losers to the Cleveland Browns, for lowball honors. The Titans were priced at +1100 and the Commanders at +1500.
Highest Scoring Game
Miami versus anybody this week. The Dolphins alone outscored every single game. Thus the 90 points for the Dolphins-Broncos returned +750 as the third choice.
Give it up for the chalk.
The New York Jets and New England Patriots combined for all of 25 points in New England’s 15-10 triumph. These teams were favored for futility and paid +410 as the odds-on choice in this category.
Some Weekly Specials Results
Justin Herbert, Mahomes, and Tagovailoa to notch eight touchdowns. It paid +360. They had 10.
That late end-zone pick by Dak Prescott sank one that would have paid +150 for Mahomes, Prescott, and Fields to toss six touchdowns. They only got five. Prescott was the big surprise, throwing only one.
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