This was the week of the Jacksonville Jackpot.
Jacksonville Jaguars bettors struck financial gold on the moneyline, spread, and prop-betting fronts to highlight NFL Week 3 wagering.
Their impressive collections linked with the Jags’ 38-10 road thumping of the Los Angeles Chargers reflected the big day some underdog teams enjoyed.
The Jags prevailed at +3.5 and at a moneyline price of +150, per odds at DraftKings.
At FanDuel, Jacksonville prop bettors hit another significant payday. Jacksonville was a gaudy, +5000, or 50-to-1 odds, to be the league’s highest scoring team in Week 3.
The Jags were the longest shot on the board, literally the last team oddsmakers projected to lead the NFL scoring parade.
And the longshot came in.
Jacksonville’s excellence highlighted a Dog Day Afternoon by NFL longshots.
In other big surprises, the Jags were joined by the Indianapolis Colts (+5), who stunned the favored Kansas City Chiefs, 20-17. The Miami Dolphins (+4.5) outlasted the chalk Buffalo Bills in a 21-19 thriller.
The three moneyline favorites were anchored to multi-legged parlays and thus became welcome news to the sportsbooks.
During a week in which eight games had spreads of three points or less, the three biggest upsets came from teams receiving more than a field goal.
Overall, dogs went 9-5-1, and the Under was 9-6, prior to the Monday Night matchup between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys. Dogs went 10-5-1 ATS in Week 2 and are 27-18-2 on the season.
In a week dominated by the Under, it was fitting for the Denver Broncos to defeat the San Francisco 49ers 11-10 on Sunday night.
It was only the second 11-10 outcome in league history, the league reported. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ 11-10 triumph over the San Diego Chargers in 2008 was the first.
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NFL Week 3 Upsets
Before breaking their 18-game road losing streak, the Jags surged Friday to +3.5 after opening +7.5, as the betting market assessed news of Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert being a game-time decision due to a fractured rib cartilage injury as an indication he would not play. The adjusted line reflected the belief the Jags would face backup Chase Daniel, not Herbert.
Herbert ended up playing, and the game closed LAC -6.5, but the Jags beat the Chargers anyway.
The Dolphins secured a +185 payday for their backers, who were gifted 4.5 points on the point spread.
The Colts, who notched the biggest point-spread upset of the week, returned +195 to their moneyline backers.
Going Against the Gambling Grain …
Colts bettors went against the crowd, as only 8% of point spread handle and 7% of moneyline handle were on the underdog in this AFC showdown.
Dolphins backers comprised only 13% of the spread handle and 19% of ML handle.
Going With The Grain …
Bettors were spot on with the Ravens covering -2.5 at the New England Patriots. A full 89% of DraftKings betting handle backed Baltimore on the spread in the 37-26 triumph.
The Cincinnati Bengals’ 27-12 win over the New York Jets covered -6 for 85% of the betting handle.
The Philadelphia Eagles covered -6.5 in their 24-8 victory over the Washington Commanders, with 77% of the handle.
Stats from Caesars Sportsbook
Since losing to the Bills in Week 8 of last season, the Dolphins are now 11-1 straight up and 10-2-2 against the spread, Caesars Sportsbook reports.
Buffalo had been in a groove, winning each of its last six regular-season games by at least 10 points. No team has had a longer streak since Peyton Manning’s Broncos won eight consecutive games by double digits, spanning parts of the 2012 and 2013 seasons.
Since 2017, including playoffs, the 49ers are 25-17 straight up (29-22-1 ATS) with Jimmy Garoppolo opening the game and 9-29 straight up (16-22 ATS) with all other starting quarterbacks.
San Francisco generated 68% of the spread bets and 82% of the Caesars handle Sunday night against the Denver Broncos, but Garoppolo self-destructed with three turnovers and a second-half safety he took by stepping on the end line. His lack of mobility is an issue.
Denver quarterback Russell Wilson was trouble for the Niners during his decade in Seattle, and it continued Sunday night. He is now 18-4 on the moneyline and 16-5-1 ATS in 21 meetings, including one playoff game.
PointsBet Stats
PointsBet paid out on its two biggest liabilities, Baltimore and Cincinnati.
The book managed to prevail over its third biggest liability, Kansas City-4.5 against Indianapolis.
Its top-wagered prop bet payoffs Sunday included a Davante Adams anytime TD for the Las Vegas Raiders at -120 and a Ja’Marr Chase score for the Bengals at + 100.
One of its best values surrounded Lamar Jackson. The Ravens quarterback was boosted to +340 for exceeding 274.5 rushing and passing yards and the Ravens winning. Jackson had a combined total of 325 in Baltimore’s victory.
Another good parlay for the bettors was a boost to +330 for the Ravens to cover and for the Atlanta Falcons to beat the Seattle Seahawks, which they did, 27-23.
Shop around: Best Sportsbook Apps for NFL Parlays
Dice Rolls
Come 0ut 7s. Some of these big gambles paid off early.
Buffalo declined a field-goal attempt from the Miami 2-yard line on its first drive and cashed in. Josh Allen tossed a fourth-down scoring pass to Devin Singletary.
Not only was it the first touchdown from a Buffalo running back this year, but it marked the eighth straight opening-drive touchdown for the Bills.
Buffalo’s second drive had a similar pattern. On 4th-and 2 from the Miami 30, the Bills bypassed the field-goal attempt. Allen scrambled for the first down and later tossed to Isaiah McKenzie for a TD.
The Detroit Lions had 4th down at the Minnesota 32 on what became their first touchdown drive. Rather than try a field goal (having already missed one), the Lions tossed to Amon Ra-St. Brown, who rumbled 30 yards. That set up a touchdown by Jamaal Williams.
The Lions converted two more fourth downs en route to their second touchdown and a 14-0 lead.
Throwing Craps
Chiefs coach Andy Reid had a dilemma with kicker Harrison Butker out. Backup kicker Matt Amendola had already missed an extra point and would later miss a field goal. Between these two events, the Chiefs lined up in field-goal formation and threw a pass. No good.
All told, kicking fiascos involving Amendola cost the Chiefs seven points in the narrow loss.
The Seattle Seahawks converted a fourth-down play rather than kick a second-quarter field goal against the Atlanta Falcons. One play later, they were in the end zone.
The High Roller Award of the week goes to Arizona Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury, who took the biggest dice roll of all. With the Cardinals on their own 20, he went for it on 4th and inches. He got the inches. It led to a field goal.
It appears that the momentum generated by the 4th-down pickup usually leads to points on that drive around the league.
Did You Know?
The Lions extended their streak of quarters with a touchdown to 18 before it was snapped in the fourth quarter of their loss to the Vikings.
It is the longest reigning streak in the NFL.
The Lions and Atlanta Falcons are both 1-2, but 3-0 against the spread.
The Falcons have some good angles to wager into.
Wide receiver Drake London has emerged as a playmaker. He has touchdowns in two straight weeks and has become a favorite of Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota.
The Falcons also don’t stop opposing teams. All three of their games have exceeded 50 points, and all three have hit the Over.
They will also kick the field goal more often than most teams. They have an underrated star in Younghoe Koo, who is money (7-for-9, including two long misses).
Koo can matter if bettors like the price of a prop for total field goals. This category stays under the radar, but an edge is an edge, anywhere you get it.
Also check: Super Bowl 57 odds
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