Chalk it up for the chalk.
Double-digit conviction blossoms, as three teams favored by 10 or more points received heavy backing for NFL Week 3 on Tuesday.
A fourth bordered on joining the elite group.
The first posting of double-digit favorites this year thus became an avalanche.
The initial test for the favorites comes in the Week 3 opener on Thursday.
The 2-0 San Francisco 49ers, listed at -10.5 for their home opener against the 1-1 New York Giants, collected 82% of the early handle and 76% of the tickets at DraftKings.
That was enough to drive the line down to -10 on Tuesday night.
Conviction is more tepid with the 44.5 Total, as 56% of the handle and 41 % of the tickets on the Over represent a split verdict.
In these matchups, the outcome often lies in how many points the dog can score.
Other huge chalks included the Kansas City Chiefs, who soared to -12.5 against the visiting Chicago Bears. The public says “Fuh-Get-About” the heavy points and backs Kansas City with 71% of the handle and 69% of the bets.
But that spread is drifting high and bettors could easily be cajoled to start backing Chicago.
The Dallas Cowboys further define “lopsided,” as in 92% of the handle and 94% of the bets being on them at -12 against the host Arizona Cardinals.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the next team knocking on the double-digit door. They have 76% of the handle and 67% of the bets at -9.5 against the visiting Houston Texans.
While all these favorites are prohibitive on the moneyline — ranging from -425 to -700 — some compelling matchups feature 0-2 teams badly needing to win tightly-forecast games.
Gamblers pondering Week 3 odds will determine how much they think the rich will get richer and which teams can avoid a costly 0-3 hole.
Check out our NFL Week 3 betting trends.
NFL Week 3 Opener Betting News
As we projected two days ago, the Giants will be without their best offensive threat in this game. Saquon Barkley’s ankle injury will sideline him for perhaps three weeks. Former Niner Matt Breida will thus face his old teammates as a lead back.
The Giants will gladly take a three-week break rather than lose Barkley for the year. When Barkley was carted off the field and slammed his helmet on Sunday, Giants’ backers feared the worst.
Barkley, after all, had been injured and lost for the season in the second game of the 2020 campaign. He made it back to enjoy an improved 2021 and a productive 2022 season.
The Niners enter as conquering heroes. They notched 30 points in machine-like road victories against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Rams.
As for the Giants, performance is often considered s hit or miss by the books.
“You never know which Giants team is going to take the field,” Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told Gaming Today. “I do think their defense is going to show up in this game, so the question is what this offense without Barkley is going to be able to generate. The Giants usually play very well as an underdog.”
A Look at Some Teams the Public Backs Strongly
The Seattle Seahawks, fresh from their exhilarating overtime road triumph against the Detroit Lions, have 80% of the DraftKings handle and 87% of the bets at -6 against the Carolina Panthers.
Gamblers watching Carolina struggle in a 20-17 setback against the New Orleans Saints on Monday night will believe they lack the firepower to match Seattle.
The winless Panthers have only 27 points in two games.
The Dolphins, like the Niners, have a huge early-season edge.
They own two road victories and had 84% of the handle and the bets at -6.5 against the winless Denver Broncos.
That helped briefly drive the number up to -7 on Tuesday. It went back to -6.5 on Tuesday night and could easily shuffle between the two spots.
Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa is a scoring machine.
The winless Broncos surrendered a 21-3 lead and lost 35-33 to the Washington Commanders in Week 2. Sean Payton’s coaching return has been highlight-reel worthy — a successful onside kick to start Game 1 and a desperation final-play Hail Mary that was answered in Game 2 — but both were overshadowed.
The onside kick was whistled back for a penalty and the Hail Mary that brought Denver within two points wasn’t enough. Denver missed the game-tying two-point conversion.
The Tennessee Titans, who have played right near the number in covering twice, have 85% of the handle and 77% of the tickets at -3 in Cleveland.
Through most of Tuesday, the number was 3.5, but the sportsbooks took away the hook on Tuesday night.
Although the Browns are a strong home team, they lost a major cog for the season. Star running back Nick Chubb went down with a knee injury, leaving a gaping lineup hole.
That could hamper the 1-1 Browns, whose offensive mistakes led to two Pittsburgh Steelers defensive scores in Monday’s 26-22 setback.
Tennessee, meanwhile, plays a close-to-the-vest game. The Titans took advantage of the hook, losing a three-point opener to the New Orleans Saints at +3.5. They then squeaked past the Los Angeles Chargers in overtime at +2.5.
Toss-Up Games Enticing Home Team Bets
The Green Bay Packers, receiving 81 percent handle and 65% tickets at -2 against the New Orleans Saints, have been a surprise. They did the unexpected in walloping the Chicago Bears 38-20 in Week 1. They unfortunately did the unexpected again in Week 2, watching a 12-point fourth-quarter lead get away against the Atlanta Falcons, losing a 25-24 heartbreaker. They face an excellent defense in the Saints.
But it is their home opener at -2, barely more responsibility than winning outright.
The Minnesota Vikings host the Los Angeles Chargers in a battle of desperate 0-2 teams.
Early sentiment favors the Vikings -1 at 75 % of the handle and 53% of the bets.
The snakebit Chargers, who have lost two games by five points, often play better on the road than at home.
The Vikings won 13 games last year. At this point, they would be happy to get 10. But that first means getting No. 1.
The Las Vegas Raiders have a slight but not commanding sentimental backing of 61% handle and only 43% bets in hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers at -2.
Bettors are seeing the Las Vegas home opener as one that could be decided in the final minute.
Toss-Up Games Enticing Road Bettors
The 0-2 Cincinnati Bengals have not made buyers of the early-betting public for their Monday Night battle against the Los Angeles Rams.
Los Angeles has 61% of the handle and 59% of the bets at -1.5.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow has not completed a pass over 15 yards this year, as he battles a calf injury. His inability to throw deep is hurting the Bengals, who face calls to bench him to let him heal. The problem is, they need the game now.
DraftKings bettors like the visiting New England Patriots at -2.5, to the tune of 65% handle and 64% bets, then they battle the New York Jets. The Pats are winless, yet road favorites.
New England has been feisty in two tough home losses and the Jets, as many teams will this year, looked rudderless in their last game against the Dallas Cowboys.
Sportsbooks Flourish With Monday Night Football Double Dip
Operators loved the crossover effect of bettors gambling on both the Carolina Panthers-New Orleans Saints and the Cleveland Browns-Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night.
Both games received more handle than normal and the Panthers-Saints, which would have been one of the lowest handles of the week, became one of the highest in prime time, Avello said.
Books will get another doubleheader on Monday night. The Philadelphia Eagles visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Bengals host the Rams.
Chubb Injury Gives Browns a Futures Snub
Nothing may be as big as the New York Jets dropping from +1400 to +6500 in Super Bowl futures after losing star quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Yet the injury ending Chubb’s season did reverberate in futures markets.
Cleveland fortunes took a big hit with Chubb gone for the year at DraftKings.
The Browns went from +1800 to +2200 to win the Super Bowl.
They slipped from +900 to +1200 to capture the AFC title.
They dipped from +200 to +330 to claim the AFC North.
Cleveland went from -230 to -145 to reach the playoffs.
NFL Week 2 Winners and Losers (DraftKings)
Gamblers shoot for the stars taking the multi-legged parlays with high risk and high reward.
In Week 2, they reached the stars.
“The players got the best of it this week,” Avello noted. “Good for them. They did well, both on the moneyline and spread parlays. That’s one reason we lost on the Chiefs (who had most of the money in a 17-9 cover against the Jacksonville Jaguars).
“The Giants were one of our biggest losers too. Arizona covered the 4.5 and the Giants kept a lot of moneyline parlays alive by winning the game (31-28).”
Books also were effectively middled by the last-second field goal creating a 30-23 final score victory for the 49ers over the Los Angeles Rams.
Gamblers backing the Niners at -6.5 got paid.
So did Rams bettors who took them at +7.5.
This is one of any sportsbook’s biggest nightmares, which has been offset in recent years by a few games ending on “7” and more overall action to mitigate the risk. But once in a great while, the final number lands in the wrong spot for the books.
It did here, which was great news for bettors. Some took advantage of this middle and cashed on both sides.
Despite this setback, DraftKings had some high moments.
It did well with Green Bay covering +3 against Atlanta and the Cowboys covering -8.5 against the New York Jets. Strong late money had come in on both teams, as did significant moneyline action from the Jets, which was not cashed.
Top-10 Teams Getting Super Bowl Money (DraftKings)
- Bengals +2000: 11% Handle, 12% Bets
- Jets +700: 11% Handle, 8% Bets
- Eagles +750: 9% Handle, 11% Bets
- Chiefs +700: 9% Handle, 13% Bets
- Niners +650: 8% Handle, 7% Bets
- Buffalo Bills +1000: 8% Handle, 9% Bets
- Baltimore Ravens +1000: 5% Handle, 9% Bets
- Detroit Lions +2000: 4% Handle, 4% Bets
- Cowboys +750: 4% Handle, 3% Bets
- Dolphins +1300: 4% Handle, 3% Bets
Super Bowl and Division Odds (BetMGM)
The public is jumping on Kansas City and San Francisco, suitably so.
Line movement (Last week to Current)
- Chiefs: +650 to +600
- 49ers: +700 to +600
- Cowboys: +1100 to +800
Highest Ticket %
- Bengals: 9.5%
- Eagles: 9.2%
- Chiefs: 8.6%
Highest Handle %
- Bills: 11.4%
- Chiefs: 9.9%
- Bengals: 8.9%
- Favorite: Chiefs: +320
- Highest Ticket %: Chiefs 13.1%
- Highest Handle %: Bills 15.3%
- Biggest Liability: Steelers
- Favorite: 49ers +280
- Highest Ticket %: Lions 40.2%
- Highest Handle %: Lions 38.0%
- Biggest Liability: Lions
NFL Division Futures
- Favorite: Dolphins +100
- Highest Ticket %: Jets 27.2%
- Highest Handle %: Bills 53.1%
- Biggest Liability: Patriots
- Favorite: Ravens -110
- Highest Ticket %: Steelers 33.4%
- Highest Handle %: Steelers 31.5%
- Biggest Liability: Steelers
- Favorite: Jaguars -120
- Highest Ticket %: Titans 50.5%
- Highest Handle %: Titans 45.8%
- Biggest Liability: Titans
- Favorite: Chiefs -250
- Highest Ticket %: Chiefs 36.1%
- Highest Handle %: Chiefs 79.4%
- Biggest Liability: Chiefs
- Favorite: Eagles and Cowboys +105
- Highest Ticket %: Eagles 31.0%
- Highest Handle %: Eagles 62.3%
- Biggest Liability: Commanders
- Favorite: Lions +110
- Highest Ticket %: Lions 45.5%
- Highest Handle %: Lions 61.5%
- Biggest Liability: Lions
- Favorite: Saints +120
- Highest Ticket %: Saints 49.9%
- Highest Handle %: Saints 66.7%
- Biggest Liability: Saints
- Favorite: 49ers -450
- Highest Ticket %: Seahawks 41.4%
- Highest Handle %: 49ers 78.8%
- Biggest Liability: 49ers