NFL Week 3 Expert Picks: Bookies Battle Contestants Overwhelmingly on Favorites

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Underdogs are off to a 17-13-1 against-the-spread record through the first two weeks of the NFL season, but the bookmakers competing in Bookies Battle 2022 are not buying into that trend ahead of Week 3.

Of the 16 games on the card, our contestants are laying the points in an overwhelming 14 of them. Lions +7 and Steelers +5 are the outliers, and consensus picks are off to an 0-1 start, as Pittsburgh failed to cover for 73.7% of the contest field in a 29-17 loss to the Browns on Thursday night.

That same percentage of participants are seeing an important point of value with Detroit, as most sportsbooks are dealing Vikings -6 as of this Friday morning writing.

nfl week 3 picks
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

Eagles -4 is tied with Detroit and Pittsburgh as the top consensus plays for Week 3. That Philly number represents a closing-line value layup, as the number is up to -6.5 for the Eagles’ divisional showdown against the Commanders.

NFL Week 3 Consensus Picks, Bookies Battle 2022

Consensus PickContest LineFriday's Market LineOpponent% of Plays
DET Lions+7+6MIN Vikings73.7%
PHI Eagles-4-6.5WAS Commanders73.7%
PIT Steelers+5+4.5CLE Browns73.7%
LA Chargers-7-7JAX Jaguars68.4%
BUF Bills-4.5-5.5MIA Dolphins66.7%
SF 49ers-1.5-1.5DEN Broncos64.9%
BAL Ravens-3-2.5NE Patriots61.4%
CIN Bengals-5-6NY Jets61.4%
LV Raiders-1-2TEN Titans61.4%
SEA Seahawks-1.5-1ATL Falcons59.6%
CHI Bears-3-2.5HOU Texans56.1%
KC Chiefs-7-5.5IND Colts56.1%
LA Rams-4-3.5ARI Cardinals56.1%
NO Saints-2.5-2.5CAR Panthers56.1%
TB Buccaneers-2.5-1GB Packers56.1%
NY Giants-2.5-1DAL Cowboys52.6%

In terms of line value, we notice an interesting pattern in the chart above: In six of the seven cases in which the contest line differs from Friday’s market line, the majority of our bookmakers is on the right side of the move. The consensus is on the wrong side of the move in the next six such instances, including:

    • Ravens -3 (-2.5 on Friday)
    • Chiefs -7 (-5.5 on Friday)
    • Bears -3 (-2.5 on Friday)
    • Rams -4 (-3.5 on Friday)

Also read: Favorites, Overs Crushing Public Bettors, Golden Nugget’s Tony Miller Says

Season Snapshot

Through two weeks of the season, Kalen Carlisle (Wynn Interactive) and Brad Carpenter (DraftKings at Scarlet Pearl Casino, Mississippi) share the Bookies Battle lead with 21-11 records ahead of Week 3.

Jay Kornegay (Westgate SuperBook, Las Vegas) and Enrique Castillo (Hollywood Casino Lawrenceburg, Indiana) are tied for second at 20-12.

Consensus picks went a paltry 5-11 last week and are 12-20 on the season.

Oddsmakers from across the legal US sports betting landscape, including some of the most expert minds in the business, are competing in Bookies Battle 2022.

Betting opportunities: Bonus code TODAY Gets $1,000 Risk-Free Bet at BetMGM | Best apps for NFL betting

Bookmaker Spotlight: Jay Rood

We spent some time on the phone this week with Sports Betting Hall of Famer Jay Rood, formerly with MGM Resorts and now with Bally Bet.

We discussed his transition from old-school bookmaking to the new world of mobile betting, where he thinks traditional Las Vegas books are lagging, and why the retail environment will remain important for this industry.

Read our Q&A with Jay Rood here.

Also read: Bookmakers Spotlight with BetMGM’s Jason Scott

About the Author
Marcus DiNitto

Marcus DiNitto

Sr. News Editor
Marcus DiNitto is Senior News Editor for Gaming Today. He has been managing editor at national sports websites SportsBusiness Daily, Sporting News, and The Linemakers, as well as with licensed operator USA Sports Gaming. Marcus graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and his MBA from the University of North Carolina-Charlotte.

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