Last week in the NFL was one of the underdog, as several of the league’s premier teams, including the Bills and Chiefs, left with a loss. Underdogs went 10-5-1 against the spread on the week, but expect the chalk to bounce back in an action-packed Week 4.
The picture is slowly becoming more clear as several teams face do-or-die games. Half the league is entering the week with a potential three-loss record to start the year – a tough deficit to climb back from for postseason hopefuls. In our NFL Week 4 betting picks and predictions, read which favorites are the best bets to get back into the win column.
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens
This line has ranged from Buffalo -3 to -4 in early wagering. Here are current odds that can be found on US sportsbook apps.
NFL · Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET
|M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland|
The Buffalo Bills entered the season as Super Bowl favorites and looked the part through their first two games. The hype has settled a little with their shocking 21-19 loss to divisional-rival Miami. They look to bounce back in Baltimore against the 2-1 Ravens. Despite the loss, the Bills still lead the league with a +17-point differential.
Josh Allen and the Bills rarely skid after dropping games, going 4-1-1 ATS after a loss last season with an impressive 19-point average margin of victory. Injuries are starting to pile up for this Bills squad, but they’re optimistic safety Jordan Poyer may be back in the lineup this weekend.
This is Baltimore’s fourth-straight matchup against the AFC East to start the season. The Ravens defense has been lit up by opposing quarterbacks, allowing a league-leading 353 passing yards per game. Their competition hasn’t exactly been top-notch, either, facing Joe Flacco, Tua Tagovailoa, and Mac Jones through the first three games. The defense is unlikely to improve upon that number facing Allen and the NFL’s no. 1 passing offense.
Lamar Jackson has the Baltimore offense playing well, and the Ravens are leading the league in points per game. The emergence of receiver Devin Duvernay has been a blessing for a Ravens squad that was criticized for their lack of weapons. Although they’ve seen success moving the ball, they’ll face their most difficult defense yet. All three of their previous opponents rank near the bottom on defense in opposing quarterback rating allowed.
The Buffalo defense has been dominant through the first few weeks of the year. The Bills have allowed the fewest yards per game and rank in the top five in points per game and sacks. The Ravens lack of high-end offensive weapons may be exposed against this potent Bills defense.
Despite the injuries, the Bills still boast one of the league’s strongest rosters. Playing Bills -3 is one of the best bets of NFL Week 4, as Buffalo should pull out a road victory over this Baltimore team.
Fading the GOAT: NFL Betting Trends, Week 4
Los Angeles Chargers (-5) at Houston Texans
There’s been early movement toward the dog here after the Chargers opened -6.5 in Las Vegas on Sunday night.
NFL · Sun (10/2) @ 1:02pm ET
|NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas|
Los Angeles was a popular pick to make the playoffs this year, and it has the talent to compete with the league’s top teams. The Chargers head to Houston with a 1-2 record and if they aspire to play in the postseason they need a win here to get back to .500.
With a banged-up Justin Herbert, the Chargers will rely on the ground game on offense. Running back Austin Ekeler was virtually nonexistent in the Chargers’ 38-10 loss last week to the Jacksonville Jaguars, posting just five yards on four carries. Ekeler gets a favorable matchup this week against a porous Texans front seven.
Houston has by far the worst rush defense in the league, conceding over 200 yards per game on the ground – nearly 50 yards more than the second-worst. Their defense as a whole is allowing the fourth-most yards to opposing offenses.
Houston has one of the league’s worst rosters and is one of just two teams without a win on the season. Quarterback Davis Mills has struggled and is scaring few defenses with his three touchdowns and two interceptions on the year. They haven’t been able to move the ball well on offense, posting the league’s worst third-down conversion rate and seventh-lowest points per game.
A stumbling Chargers team should right the ship against this weak Texans team. As a road favorite of less than a touchdown, one of the best bets of NFL Week 4 is Los Angeles laying five.
Also read: NFL Week 5 Look-Ahead Lines
Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints (in London) Under 44
The total has been bet down this contest in London.
NFL · Sun (10/2) @ 9:28am ET
|Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana|
The NFL returns to London with a matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints. It’ll be each team’s third contest played across the pond but their first at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Neither team has been lighting up the scoreboard this year, making under 44 one of the best bets of NFL Week 4.
Minnesota has more firepower on the offensive side of the ball, but they have been rather pedestrian through the first few weeks. The Vikings’ 19.3 points per game ranks 17th in the league and are in the bottom seven for third-down conversion rate. They face a stout Saints defense that gets off the field on third down 31.8% of the time – good for the seventh-best rate in the league.
Jameis Winston has struggled to get the Saints offense moving, and their 17.0 points per game ranks in the bottom 10 of the league. They’re coming off a 22-14 loss to Carolina that featured three turnovers, including two Winston interceptions. Turnovers have been a concern for the Saints on both sides of the ball, posting the league’s worst turnover differential of -7.
The Vikings defense won’t make it easy for Winston to get the Saints offense back on track. Minnesota plays tough on the defensive side of the ball and is allowing only 18.3 points per game – ninth best in the league.
Both teams have struggled with the time of possession on the defensive side of the ball. Other than an uptick for the Saints defense on third down, both defenses have been on the field for more than half their games. Long drives without touchdowns will keep the scoreboard low in London. This total figures to finish in the 30s – not the 40s – and one of the best bets of Week 4 is to go Under 44.
Pick one for yourself: Best Sportsbook Apps for NFL Betting