Here’s an NFL Week 5 betting snapshot: Joe Burrow, Desmond Ridder, and C.J. Stroud.
These three quarterbacks — the league’s highest-paid player and two staunch newcomers — have stirred the gambling pot with strong recent performances. Bettors will assess the trio’s long-range potential after enjoying the Monday night finale.
That’s when the Green Bay Packers visit the Las Vegas Raiders, who are expected to have Jimmy Garoppolo back from a concussion as they try to snap a three-game losing streak.
Here are our NFL Week 5 betting results and a first look at Week 6 games, which begins with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Denver Broncos on Thursday.
The Real Joe Burrow May Have Just Stood Up
Cincinnati Bengals backers rejoice over the last effort of Burrow, who had been mired in a funk. Burrow’s breakout day of three touchdowns, including the first three scores from explosive receiver Ja’Marr Chase, signaled a possible return to form.
Burrow also unfurled his best deep ball in several months. He hit Chase in stride for a 63-yard touchdown to open the second half.
Cincinnati, which halted the stubborn, but mistake-prone Arizona Cardinals 34-20, host the Seattle Seahawks in Week 6. They could start to steamroll, as they did starting at this time last year. A victory would even them at 3-3 in the suddenly-competitive AFC North.
While Burrow is well known and has been in a Super Bowl, bettors are starting to trust two unsung quarterbacks.
Each engineered a last-possession scoring drive in the Atlanta Falcons’ 21-19, last-play triumph over the Houston Texans.
Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud extended his record career start to 186 passes without a pick.
His final artistry involved an 11-play, 75-yard scoring march, putting Houston ahead 19-18 with under two minutes left.
Despite the loss, Houston has three straight covers, which includes two lopsided moneyline victories and Week 5’s heartbreaking setback.
It will try to make it four straight covers when hosting the New Orleans Saints.
Ridder, Stroud’s opposite number, has also been steady.
Ridder is 31-0 at home between his 26-0 college career at Cincinnati and a 5-0 moneyline start for the Falcons. He answered Stroud’s heroics with a last-second drive to set up the game-winning field goal by Younghoe Koo.
Atlanta didn’t get the cover of -2.5 but did notch a moneyline win and has an excellent chance to go 4-2 when hosting the Washington Commanders in Week 6.
Ridder is not flashy, but he’s effective.
The young guns were part of an NFL Weel 5 story in which the dogs were 7-6 and the Under 8-5 entering Monday night.
NFL Week 5 Top Chalk Teams
The Philadelphia Eagles, who covered -3.5 in toppling the Los Angeles Rams to go 5-0, will invade the New York Jets. Philly does just enough to get by, winning 23-14 in Week 5 despite scoring just two second-half field goals.
Gamblers will continue to back them as the Eagles show pedigree in key situations. They are 3-1-1 against the spread, one of the league’s best marks.
The Jets have authored two straight covers, one moneyline win, and are respectable with Breece Hall in the backfield. They just thumped the Denver Broncos, 31-21, and play with a new attitude under fiery coach Robert Saleh.
The San Francisco 49ers remain the class of the league. They are 5-0 on the moneyline, 4-0-1 on the spread, and just drubbed a strong Dallas Cowboys team 42-10 on Sunday night.
There is a different star in every game. In Week 4, it was four touchdowns from Christian McCaffrey. Against the Cowboys, George Kittle notched three touchdowns.
The Niners, who had the rare luxury of three straight home games, now hit the road to face the Cleveland Browns.
The Chiefs got by at -3.5 against the Minnesota Vikings, 27-20. A pass interference flag that would have given Minnesota first-and-goal on the Kansas City 1 was overturned, preserving Kansas City’s seven-point margin. That, for bettors, was the biggest play of the game.
It was joined by Patrick Mahomes’ latest all-world play.
This beauty came on 3rd-and-18 with the score knotted 13-13 on the first possession of the second half. Minnesota had momentum and was primed for the stop. But Mahomes, off his back foot, floated a 33-yard completion to Justin Watson. That set up the go-ahead TD and Kansas City never looked back.
The Chiefs have four straight moneyline wins, including two on the road and are 3-2 against the line.
Minnesota, which played well enough to win, visits the Chicago Bears, who notched their first W by thumping the Washington Commanders 40-20 last Thursday.
NFL Week 5 Top Underdogs
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been dependable to Under bettors, going 4-1 including a 17-10 triumph over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5. For the second straight home game, the defense turned the game in their favor in the fourth quarter.
Pittsburgh’s D blocked a punt for a safety early in the fourth quarter, helping the Steelers get within 10-5. An end zone pick kept them in the game at 10-8 before Kenny Pickett found George Pickens on a 41-yard, go-ahead TD with 1:49 left.
It was the only touchdown of the day for Pittsburgh but it was enough.
Keep an eye on the tandem of Kenny Pickett and Pickens, who notched 130 receiving yards. They are becoming as good as any pair in the league, yet Pickens may still be an under-the-radar value for anytime scoring props.
Pittsburgh has a Week 6 bye, along with the Packers.
In the AFC North, this is now the first-place Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, who toppled the Buffalo Bills 25-20 in London at +5.5, turned their season around. They left Florida 1-2 a couple weeks back. They return at 3-2.
Bettors will back Travis Etienne, who notched 135 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Calvin Ridley, whom we profiled here in Week 1 as a breakout comeback star, had 122 yards against the Bills.
Jacksonville hosts the Indianapolis Colts next.
NFL Week 5 Betting Thumbs Up
The betting majority had its best results in the Miami Dolphins’ 31-16 triumph over the New York Giants. With 82% of the DraftKings handle at -12.5, the Dolphins did just enough against a Giants offense that could not score.
But a 102-yard Pick 6 by the Giants defense, the longest play from scrimmage this year, helped them stay on the border of covering the spread. That brought a sigh of relief to the betting masses, whose wagers reflect the Giants’ offense being unable to score.
In four of their five games, the 0-5 Giants have a total of one offensive TD. They are also winless against the spread.
And it won’t get easier. They visit the Bills and the status of Daniel Jones, who left in the fourth quarter with a neck injury, will be uncertain during the week.
On the positive side, New York may see the return of injured running back Saquon Barkley.
Miami now faces the winless Carolina Panthers, who were stomped 42-24 by the Detroit Lions in Week 5.
NFL Week 5 Betting Thumbs Down
A solid majority, 75%, took the New England Patriots -2 against the New Orleans Saints at home. To say the Patriots stunk up the joint would be kind. The 34-0 setback, on the heels of a 38-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week, means they have been outscored 72-3 in the last two games. The Patriots are a bad 1-4. This is a monstrous drop-off from a 10-win team from two seasons back.
The natives are beyond restless in New England, which travels to Las Vegas in Week 6.
Mac Jones is on a short leash as the Patriots quarterback. Slow decision-making and passes with too much air under them kill his effectiveness. Among his misfortunes was a Pick 6 that opened the scoring for New Orleans.
Jones is regressing and the wheels are coming off for New England.
“Everybody Loves A Gambler…”
The Eagles and the Brotherly Shove scored again at the end of the first half.
On the final play, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni passed up a field goal with the Eagles trailing 14-10.
Putting everything on the line, the Eagles unfurled their patented play with Hurts being pushed by a pack from behind. Hurts burrowed into the end zone. That was a classic all-or-nothing dice roll by Sirianni. The Eagles invented this play and complete it on third and fourth-down sneaks nearly 95% of the time, about 10% higher than the rest of the league.
Eagles bettors loved coach Nick Sirianni on this play.
Another big gamble worked in Minnesota.
The Vikings surprised the Chiefs with a fake punt, trailing 10-6 late in the second quarter. It succeeded and several plays later, the Vikings found the end zone.
The Detroit Lions lead the NFL with 45 attempts on fourth down since 2022. They have converted about one-third of them.
Coach Dan Campbell hit two big ones en route to two touchdowns on Sunday. He missed one within field goal range. Overall, a productive gambling day.
Washington coach Ron Rivera is affectionately dubbed “Riverboat Ron” for his aggressive gambles. It’s time to give Campbell a gambling moniker.
I like “Dice-Roll Dan.”
“Until He Loses”
Indianapolis Colts coach Shane Steichen went for the knockout blow in the final seconds of the first half against the Tennessee Titans, up 10-6.
The Colts had 4th-and-inches on the Tennessee 5 with 15 seconds to go in the half. Steichen said no to a field goal, called a pass, and it was partially tipped. It fell away from an open receiver, who would have grabbed a walk-in touchdown. But it was incomplete. No touchdown. No field goal. No points from the 5.
The Ravens, up 10-3 on the Steelers, had 4th down within field goal range in the final seconds of the first half and Justin Tucker to kick it. They went for a touchdown, missed, and may have wished they had those points later.
The Bengals gambled on 4th down, bypassing an an obvious field goal from the 1 in the half against the Arizona Cardinals. The Bengals were stopped on the half-yard line. It looked like they would end the half trailing 14-10, but Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon helped them.
NFL Week 5 Dunce Cap Play of the Day
The Cardinals then threw a short pass from their own end zone. It was a Pick 6 for the Bengals, turning the momentum of the game. Arizona never led again.
It’s one thing to throw deep, where an interception may only put the ball at midfield. But this was a momentum-sapping Pick 6 on a short Joshua Dobbs throw from his own end zone.
Gamblers pay attention to these things. Plays like this separate teams that cover from teams that don’t.
BetMGM NFL Week 5 Highlights
Most Bet Games (Tickets)
It bodes well for the sportsbook that a 9:30 A.M. game on the East Coast can generate the highest amount of tickets. And that Pittsburgh-Baltimore, considered a game of regional appeal, did so well.
Most Bet Teams (Tickets)
- Bills -5.5
- 49ers -3.5
- Chiefs -3.5
The house won big with the Bills getting smashed. They paid out on the Niners and Chiefs.
Most Bet Teams (Handle)
- Bills -5.5
- 49ers -3.5
- Steelers +5
Gamblers had a hunch about the Steelers, who capitalized on late mistakes by the Ravens.
Most Bet Overs (Tickets)
- Jaguars-Bills 48.5
- Cowboys-49ers 45
- Giants-Dolphins 47.5
We talked last week about the split betting on the Giants-Dolphins because of how little the Giants’ offense could score. The Giants’ defense made this one interesting. Nonetheless, a narrow win for the Under.
The book won two of these, as the Jags-Bills also went Under.
Most Bet Unders (Tickets)
- Ravens-Steelers 38
- Saints-Patriots 39
- Bengals-Cardinals 45
The book won the two biggest categories, with only the Bengals and Cardinals going over.
FanDuel Betting Highlights
Quarterbacks at square odds were a good resource for betting props.
Joe Burrow to throw two touchdown passes paid -110. He had three.
Jalen Hurts to reach 22 completions paid out -108. He had 25.
Hurts to go over 243 passing yards was -110. He notched 303.
Here’s one that nearly came in: Tyreek Hill, Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, and Lamar Jackson to score. It paid +1666.
All three got in and Jackson had several opportunities to call his own number around the Pittsburgh 5, but did not.