Money, money, money, money… MONEY.
For one rare occasion, all the betting sectors — sportsbooks, chalk backers, and dog bettors — sing a loud financial victory tune.
They each celebrate before the slightly-favored Dallas Cowboys conclude a frenzied NFL Week 6 at the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night.
Chalk bettors were profitable, as favorites produced a 9-5 mark through Sunday night. That included a half-point victory by the Kansas City Chiefs, who beat the Denver Broncos 19-8 at -10.5 on Thursday Night.
But some moneyline dog players had two massive moments. The New York Jets upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles 20-14 at +7 and the Cleveland Browns stunning the San Francisco 49ers 19-17 at -9.5 produced major payouts. The Jets returned +240 and the Browns were worth +360 at DraftKings.
For many gamblers, the moneyline stash came on top of the bets they cashed with points.
There was nearly a third colossal payday. The New York Giants, at a season-high +15 spread against the Buffalo Bills, nearly triumphed at +750 moneyline on Sunday night. Big Blue launched its final play from the Buffalo 1 before a pass into the end zone barely fell incomplete.
Had it been caught, moneyline dogs would have taken home upsets from teams giving a combined 31.5 points on Sunday.
All three games packed abundant drama, with the losing team standing one play from victory. For San Francisco, it was a missed field goal on the next-to-last play. For Philadelphia, it was an interception on the pass that would have wrapped up a 14-12 triumph.
For the Giants, who have not scored an offensive touchdown in 205 minutes, it was the final pass.
It also was botched time management, leaving New York at the Buffalo 1 as time ran out in the first half. The Giants squandered a field goal that would have put them up 9-0. They would have then only needed a field goal on the final play of the game instead of a touchdown. It was a tough 19-14 loss for them, but an easy pickup for bettors at +15. This was New York’s first cover of the season.
The books were happy to pay these bets because the upsets torched multi-legged parlays and reduced their overall liability. DraftKings had 82% of its spread and 95% of its moneyline action on the Niners, who both lost. The book only had 9% moneyline handle and 5% tickets on the Jets. Some people won big, but most gamblers lost.
DraftKings’ top two spread and moneyline liabilities, the Niners and Eagles, won’t be paid out. Ching. Double ching.
Against this backdrop, bettors will evaluate substantial injuries to Christian McCaffrey of the Niners and Lane Johnson of the Eagles. This will impact betting lines and team fortunes going forward.
Here are NFL Week 6 betting results.
Cowboys vs. Chargers MNF Week 6 Preview
Bettors will forecast whether Justin Herbert will outgun Dak Prescott for quarterback yardage and touchdown passes.
The game also marks the return of Austin Ekeler, who will merit an abundance of first and anytime scoring.
Herbert, despite dealing with an injured finger will reunite with Ekeler, who has missed three games with a sprained ankle. The Chargers become more dynamic with Herbert using Ekeler on swing passes out of the backfield.
On the Cowboys’ end, the loss by Philadelphia opens the door to a full one-game gain in the NFC East race. It would be an unexpected pickup for Dallas.
There is a lot for bettors to take in going forward.
So while the 1972 Miami Dolphins are safe for another year — as no unbeaten teams remain to threaten their lone perfect season — gamblers ponder the impact of major injuries.
Niners and Eagles Both Reeling After NFL Week 6
In Bontempo’s Betting Beat last week, we outlined the system San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy comfortably fit into. One major catalyst was all-world running back Christian McCaffrey.
Well… figurative speaking, Armageddon has arrived in San Francisco. McCaffrey went out with a second-quarter oblique injury against the Browns. Best player in the league, gone. Deebo Samuel was also hurt with a shoulder injury. The vaunted Niners offense, which had scored at least 30 points every week, turned feeble.
Purdy also showed that he won’t be a swift runner if called on to improvise.
Although the Niners managed to set up a game-winning field goal by rookie Jake Moody, he pushed it right.
The Niners try to regroup before hosting the Minnesota Vikings to wrap up Week 7 next Monday night.
The prognosis of McCaffrey and Samuel will be scrutinized by the bettors. Without them, San Francisco looks vulnerable, even to the 2-4 Vikings, who slid past the Chicago Bears 19-13. Gamblers will have to debate whether the Niners perhaps sacrifice one game to get their stars healthy or play them in a limited role. The line will advise them. If McCaffrey and Samuel are out, the spread will be lower than -7, which it was Monday morning.
Eagles Must Worry About Lane Johnson and Tua Tagovailoa
The Eagles are paying to be on cruise control.
In Week 5, they scored no second-half touchdowns but survived the Los Angeles Rams, 23-14.
In Week 6, they scored no second-half points and their offense gave the game to the Jets with a late turnover.
The unit also lost one of its sparks in Lane Johnson. The Eagles’ right tackle, one of the best in the business, suffered an ankle injury in the second quarter. He did not return, nor did the Eagles’ running game.
Philly relies heavily on Johnson’s excellence to open running holes. They are not nearly as dominant without him. The Eagles lost a couple of late games last season when he recovered from injury.
Bettors will take that into account when Philadelphia hosts the explosive Miami Dolphins, who lead the league in scoring.
The Dolphins average 37 points behind quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, head and shoulders above the rest of the league.
They did scare bettors a little in Week 6, falling behind 14-0 to the Carolina Panthers. But in-game bettors did not find great deals on Miami down 14 points. The moneyline was still -166 at DraftKings.
Miami went on to win 42-21.
Raheem Mostert, as projected, picked up the load with De’Von Achane injured. He tallied three touchdowns and notched 115 yards.
Justin Fields left the Chicago Bears-Minnesota Vikings game with a right-hand injury. X-rays were negative, making him possible to return in Week 7 against the Las Vegas Raiders.
In Fields’ absence, Tyson Bagent fumbled on this first play, setting up a scoop-and-score for a pivotal Vikings touchdown. He later rushed for Chicago’s only touchdown and looked to be getting comfortable with the offense.
Chicago dropped to 1-5.
Las Vegas has injury problems of its own. Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a back injury in the first half and was taken to a local hospital. In his absence, Brian Hoyer led the Raiders to a 19-10 lead over the New England Patriots, while the Raiders not only improved to 3-3 but “apologized” to its backers with a late covering safety. That provided the final two points of a 21-17 triumph over the New England Patriots at -3.
Maxx Crosby was flagged for a late hit with Las Vegas leading 19-10 late in the fourth quarter. Instead of New England kicking a field goal to keep it a one-score game at 19-13, the flag gave New England a first down and then the touchdown that made it 19-17. The safety bailed out the Vegas backers.
Next week, it’s either Garoppolo or Hoyer versus either Fields or Bagent.
Fans may be discouraged by the lack of star power in this game. Bettors will simply view the backups as a handicapping tool.
Josh Allen of the Bills may raise some red flags because of an injured shoulder. He passed sparingly Sunday night and could not fire the ball deep.
Buffalo visits the New England Patriots, who have lost three straight. Their effort against the Raiders was much better than in losses to the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints, but they still came up short.
NFL Week 7 Byes
A look at the teams with no game:
The Houston Texans probably want this bye the least. They have four straight covers.
The Jets have three.
The Cowboys might play even harder tonight, knowing they are off.
The Bengals have a modest two-game win and cover streak.
The Panthers still haven’t covered.
The Tennessee Titans have two straight losses.
“Everybody Loves a Gambler…”
Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins gambled on a 4th-and-1 call from the Chicago 38, got it, and that led to the game-opening field goal.
The Cincinnati Bengals got the Seattle Seahawks to jump on 4th-and-short from the Seattle 47. They converted and scored a touchdown.
“Until He Loses”
The Atlanta Falcons had 4th-and-3 from the 47-yard line of Washington. They went. They failed. They gave the Washington Commanders a short field and a TD.
It was only a third down play, but Eagles coach Nick Sirianni had to roll the dice on the play of the game. The Eagles led 14-12. They had 3rd and 4 with two minutes left. A first down ends the game. A run into the line and a punt gives the Jets about 70 seconds to go, 50 yards for the game-winning field goal. Sirianni went for the KO and got dropped as the Jets picked off Jalen Hurts, who threw from his back foot.
That set up the game-winning score.
Sirianni also had the rarest experience, hitting both the “Everybody Loves A Gambler and “Until He Loses” phrases on the same play.
He passed up a field goal from the 4 when the game was scoreless. On the 19th play of the drive, Sirianni rolled the dice with Hurts on his second straight quarterback sneak. Hurts was stopped at the 1. Although the Eagles recovered Hurts’ fumble into the end zone, only the player who fumbles can recover a fourth-down fumble.
The Jets got the ball. The Eagles got no points.
Until further review.
After a commercial break, the Eagles were awarded a touchdown because it was ruled Hurts had crossed the end line before fumbling.
Sirianni went from dice roller to goat to hero on one call.
NFL Week 6 Betting Leaps of Faith
The three games with the highest support for the Over all finished Under at DraftKings.
Bettors loved the Seattle Seahawks-Cincinnati Bengals t0 light up the board. At DraftKings, 85% of the handle and 73% of the tickets supported the Over. But it was a win for the Under, 17-13 Cincinnati. Seattle struggles in the red zone, including being picked and turning the ball over on downs, kept the score low.
The Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers could not produce 43 points, as 79% of the handle and 81% of the tickets projected. Detroit’s 20-6 triumph rewarded the minority.
Slick contrarians prevailed again with the Eagles and Jets not being able to deliver 43 points. Bettors backed it with 77% of the handle and 61% of the tickets.
Where the masses nailed it was the Vegas-New England game staying low. Bettors backed Under 41.5 with 80% handle and 77% of the bets and were rewarded.
NFL Week 6 Bets That Were Banked
Hurts to score first returned +450. It also paid -140 as an anytime tally.
McCaffrey tallying first was worth +285.
Cooper Kupp finally delivered in the 36th minute of what had been a tight Los Angeles Rams-Arizona Cardinals matchup. He paid a nice +550 first and -125 anytime.
Mostert notching two TDs was a handsome +260.
Some bettors went big on the Bills and Giants.
A $35,000 wager on Buffalo -14 lost.
A $14,500 bet on the Giants +15 connected and paid $27,685.
One ticket was $17,000 Bills moneyline at -1100. It produced a mere profit of $1,545, perhaps good enough for a year’s supply of blood-pressure pills. This bet looked like a loser many times.
FanDuel Pays for Tua Tagovailoa and Bryce Young
The Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers quarterbacks combined for 63 points. That gave bettors a +650 payday for picking this as the highest-scoring game of the week. It beat out Jacksonville-Indianapolis, which combined for 57.
Miami, which did the heavy lifting in this bet, also paid +500 as the highest-scoring team of the day.
Low-scoring games made the books winners and gamblers losers of most of the weekly special props.
Even the quarterback props at -110 were primarily won by the book.
A rare exception was Hurts, who cleared his 230-yard Over with 280 yards.