The carnage continues in NFL Survivor Pools! Roughly 20% of entrants were eliminated last week to continue this historic bloodbath. Here we look at NFL Survivor picks for Week 6 of the 2022 season.
We offered a number of options last week, with our best bet being the Buffalo Bills. That game was over early as the Bills safely cruised to a 38-3 win over the Steelers. Of the other favorites, the Vikings and Chiefs both survived. The Packers and Jaguars lost outright, which accounted for the bulk of the NFL Week 5 eliminations.
If you’re one of the lucky few to have survived this far, congrats! Through five weeks, anywhere between 80% and 90% of survivor tickets have already been eliminated. We’re still a full month away from the halfway point of the season!
Let’s move on to our NFL Week 6 Survivor Picks.
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NFL Survivor Strategies Recap
There are two basic strategies to consider when making your NFL Survivor picks.
Strategy #1 – Survive And Advance
This strategy is simple. Take the best team available and hope they win.
This is an excellent strategy to use in office pools. Against a small number of entrants, there isn’t as much value in making contrarian picks.
Strategy #2 – Contrarian Picks With Value
For larger pools, more thinking is required. Simply picking the heaviest favorite each week isn’t going to cut it when you’re trying to outlast up to one thousand opponents.
Your goal should be to target less popular options that are strong favorites.
As I’ve written the past few weeks, there is significantly less value now in using Strategy #2. This year has seen the most eliminations in NFL Survivor history through five weeks. With close to 90% of entrants eliminated, more emphasis is needed on Strategy #1 – Survive and Advance – for our NFL Week 6 Survivor Picks.
By now, everyone will have made different picks and have different teams left to use. Also, some of you are participating in double pick pools, or second chance pools and so on. As such, we’d like to offer a number of options from week-to-week.
Here are our NFL Week 6 Survivor Picks.
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NFL Week 6 Survivor: The Safest Pick
Los Angeles Rams
This season has not been kind to the reigning Super Bowl Champions.
The Rams have not looked sharp through five weeks. After back-to-back losses, suddenly they find themselves 2-3 heading into Week 6. With the 49ers playing like the best team in the NFC, the Rams hopes of a division title require immediate attention. If only they had an upcoming matchup against an awful team they could beat up to regain some of that Super Bowl swagger…
Enter the Carolina Panthers.
I had this game circled on my calendar as my NFL Week 6 Survivor Pick weeks ago, but two recent developments have only sweetened the spot. The Panthers have fired Head Coach Matt Rhule, and starting quarterback Baker Mayfield is ruled out with a sprained ankle.
Do I think the Los Angeles Rams are good? No. I do not.
Do I think the Los Angeles Rams can beat a Carolina Panthers team that ranks 31st in NFL offense? With a new head coach (Steve Wilks) who sports a 3-13 lifetime NFL record? With a backup quarterback (PJ Walker) who’s thrown only two touchdowns to eight interceptions in his NFL career? The guy who’s best known for taking a knee on fourth down in … the XFL?
Yes I do.
With close to 50% of survivor entrants having already used the Rams this season, this is a less popular pick than it should be in Week 6. This is also one of only two weeks left in the season to use the Rams. And their next five games? 49ers. Bucs. Cardinals. Saints. Chiefs.
Now’s the time to use the Rams.
(Note: Both Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald sat out Wednesday’s practice with minor injuries as a precaution. Both are expected to play on Sunday. Be sure to monitor the injury report before the Rams game against the Panthers)
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NFL Week 6 Survivor: The Sneaky Pick
Los Angeles Chargers
It’s Hollywood week, baybaaaay!
The Chargers are worth a look if you’ve already used the Rams, or, have multiple entries to use this week. Strong performances in back-to-back wins from Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler have suddenly turned this Chargers season around. The dynamic offense is beginning to look as expected, and the Chargers have a chance to improve to 4-2 on the season with a win this week.
As confident as I am in backing the Chargers, it’s equally appealing to fade the failed experiment in Denver.
The Broncos laid an absolute egg in front of their home crowd during Thursday Night Football, losing Field-Goal-A-Palooza to the Indianapolis Colts 12-9. Russell Wilson, the 250 Million Dollar Man, is looking less and less like the Russell Wilson we remember, and more and more like the Russell Wilson I predicted in my 2022 NFL Season Betting Preview!
Bang! Gold star for the author!
Wilson has looked lost under center. He lacks the scrambling ability of old, and seems to have forgotten how to play football? A serious deer in the headlights moment cost his team that game against the Colts when Wilson blew it on 4th and 1 inside the five yard line. There’s also the teeny tiny wrinkle that the franchise quarterback just underwent a “procedure” on his throwing shoulder?
The throwing shoulder is the important one, right?
The Chargers have two games remaining where they’re set to be heavy favorites. They play the Broncos this week and the Seahawks next week. Those are the only two options remaining to use them in NFL Survivor Pools this season.
With many bettors having circled the Seahawks game next week, grabbing the Chargers in NFL Week 6 with a projected usage rate of 7-8% is a sneaky value play.
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NFL Week 6 Survivor: The Other Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs take on the Steelers in Week 6. I’m not terribly impressed with this Bucs team, but the Steelers are downright awful.
The only reason I’d steer clear of this one is the heavy usage – more than 35% of tickets will be picking the Bucs this week. They have six more games on the schedule where they’ll be favored by six or more.
There’s also the precedent for home underdogs off a terrible loss to come out firing the next week. After an embarrassing 38-3 defeat to the Bills, Mike Tomlin will be eager to put up a strong performance at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh on Sunday. His record as a home underdog is impressive, going 13-6 straight up for his career.
There are better spots coming up to use the Bucs.
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The Ravens travel to MetLife Stadium and catch the Giants at a good time. Teams returning from London have struggled to put up points the following week — and that’s bad news for the Giants. They’ll need to put up a ton of points to keep up with these Ravens.
If you’re looking for a VERY contrarian pick, this would be the one. With less than 1% of entrants expected to use Baltimore this week, it’s an extremely contrarian selection. Baltimore has at least seven more opportunities to be used this season, so it would be quite the flier to burn them this week.
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NFL Week 6 Survivor: Popular Pick to Avoid
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are the third most popular option for NFL Week 6 Survivor Pools, attracting more than 12% of tickets. Even with their injury troubles, the 49ers are emerging as the possible #1 seed in a wide-open NFC.
As strong as the 49ers look, I’ve been impressed with this Falcons team as well. They’re a perfect 5-0 against the spread and were a blown roughing the passer call away from a chance at beating the Bucs last week. They can score in bunches and have been competitive in each of their first five games.
With stronger options on the board, I’d wait to use San Francisco.