NFL Week 7 is here, with six games slated for the early Sunday window. Here is a rundown of odds and picks. Lines were available as of this Friday publication
Bengals (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) at Ravens (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS)
BetMGM line: Ravens -6 (46.5)
The skinny: The Bengals will be looking to tie the Ravens for first place in the AFC North after finishing last in the division the past three seasons.
Facts: Bengals star QB Joe Burrow is still having issues with a throat contusion he suffered two weeks ago and has been whispering a lot. The Ravens and QB Lamar Jackson have swept the two-game series the past two years, each time as double-digit favorites. In the lone game Burrow started against them, Baltimore won 27-3. Baltimore rushed for 404 yards in last season’s regular-season finale vs. Cincinnati, a 38-3 victory. That ground total is 19 yards off the league record. But of the four RBs used, three are hurt and the other playing elsewhere.
Analysis: Wonder how good Burrow will be at barking audibles in front of a roaring crowd? That’s got to play a role here. In the passing game, Cincinnati’s WR Ja’Marr Chase is indeed one of the best long-ball threats in the game, but he won’t be going against the Bengals defense like Ravens TE Mark Andrews and his receiving buddies. Two weeks ago, he had a career-high 11 catches for 147 yards vs. Indy. That same weekend, Cincinnati’s pass defense allowed a season-high 206 receiving yards to Green Bay’s Davante Adams. Cincinnati still has some growing up to do.
Pick: Ravens 34, Bengals 20
Washington (2-4 SU, 1-5-1 ATS) at Packers (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS)
DraftKings line: Packers -8 (48.5)
The skinny: The line has plunged from a 9.5-point spread early this week for this NFC interconference game at Lambeau.
Facts: Green Bay is coming off a 24-14 win against the Bears last week. But since 2010, there has been no hangover after playing in Chicago, as Green Bay is 10-2 SU/9-2-1 ATS in those spots, and one of those losses was with Brett Hundley at QB. Washington all-purpose RB Antonio Gibson (shin) and top WR Terry McLaurin (hamstring) are listed as questionable. Not to mention the right side of the offensive line.
Analysis: Under normal circumstances, Green Bay would have little trouble covering this reduced spread against a team shell-shocked from a second-half collapse at home against the Chief last week. But the Packers have a Thursday night road game in Arizona next week, which may have a major bearing on who gets the NFC’s top playoff seed. Fingers crossed Green Bay doesn’t rest players too early and are victimized by a backdoor cover. If Washington is looking ahead at anything, it’s probably its bye in two weeks.
Pick: Packers 28, Football Team 23
Falcons (2-3 SU and ATS) Dolphins (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)
BetRivers line: Falcons -2 (48)
The skinny: The Dolphins requested a bye week later in the season, so they aren’t taking the customary week off after returning from a game in London and will face a Falcons team off a bye (probably didn’t request that). Regardless of the request, it amounts to scheduling injustice.
Facts: For some reason, Miami was a 2.5-point favorite in advanced wagering last week. Dating to 2007, there have been 30 games in England. Only four previous times has a team been scheduled to play the next week, including Miami in 2017, but never against such a well-rested team. Those travel-weary teams went 2-2 ATS/SU that next week, including a victory by the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite over Tennessee in 2017. In their last meeting, in 2017, Miami won in Atlanta 20-17 as a 13.5-point underdog, the biggest point-spread upset of the season.
Analysis: Also in Atlanta’s favor is the return to action of its two top WRs, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage, who missed its 27-20 win over the Jets two weeks ago in London. Conversely, Miami could be without its top two cornerbacks again. Ugh! And although Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa played again last week after missing three games (ribs), his team still lost to winless Jacksonville.
Pick: Falcons 26, Dolphins 14
Jets (1-4 SU, ATS) at Patriots (2-4 SU, ATS)
DraftKings line: Patriots -6.5 (43)
The skinny: The Patriots will be attempting to win their 12th straight against the Jets, which would be the longest current streak in the league by one team vs. another.
Facts: In a Week 2 get-together in the Meadowlands, the Jets didn’t score a TD in a 25-6 loss, and rookie QB Zach Wilson threw four INTs. Sound familiar? Four years earlier on the same field, the Patriots shut out the Jets and intercepted Sam Darnold four times. In the Jets’ Week 4 upset of visiting Tennessee, they had seven sacks. In their 27-20 loss a week later vs. Atlanta in London, they didn’t have any. Speaking of sacks, or lack of, New England didn’t have any last week in its 35-29 OT loss to Dallas, going 0-for-51 when Dak Prescott dropped back.
Analysis: In light of the fact New England went toe-to-toe with Dallas last week, particularly in the running game with Damien Harris going for 101 yards, the Patriots should do well here. New York appears vulnerable to such an attack with MLB C.J. Mosley babying a hamstring injury and with little in the way of talent behind him. And in pass defense, the Jets still don’t have an INT.
Pick: Patriots 27, Jets 10
Panthers (3-3 SU, ATS) at Giants (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)
DraftKings line: Panthers -2.5 (42.5)
The skinny: Carolina QB Sam Darnold returns to his old home stadium when the free-falling Panthers face the free-falling Giants.
Facts: The Giants gave up a league season-high 28 points to the Rams in the second quarter en route to a 38-11 defeat last week, triggering an early mass exodus of fans. Hmmmmm….Denver has more victories playing in the Meadowlands this season (two) than the two New York tenants combined (one). The Panthers, who have lost three straight, are tied for sixth in the league with 16 sacks, but didn’t have any last week in their 34-28 OT loss to Minnesota. Darnold and WR D.J. Moore have teamed up for nine pass plays of 20-plus yards, fourth most in the league.
Analysis: It’s hard to find any key offensive players for New York not on the injury list, with top RB Saquon Barkley and WRs Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton likely to sit out once again. And now three of last week’s starters, TE Evan Engram (questionable) and WRs Sterling Shepard (questionable) and Kadarius Toney (doubtful, ankle) could miss roll call. And with QB Daniel Jones off a concussion two weeks ago, likely still being told not to do much running, what do the Giants have left?
Pick: Panthers 27, Giants 13
Chiefs (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) at Titans (4-2 SU, ATS)
DraftKings line: Chiefs -5 (57.5)
The skinny: The Chiefs and their dynamic passing game face the host Titans and their bulldozing running attack in a key battle for AFC playoff positioning.
Facts: Tennessee’s Derrick Henry, barreling toward his third consecutive rushing title, gained 188 yards on 23 carries the last time K.C. was in Nashville, in 2019, but 10 weeks later, in the AFC title game at Arrowhead, got only 69 yards on 19 rushes. This is the third time this season the Chiefs face a team off a MNF game. Previously, they lost at Baltimore and won at Philly. K.C. leads the NFL with 14 turnovers, thanks largely to Patrick Mahomes’ eight INTs. That’s three more than he had in 14 games last season.
Analysis: Based on Henry’s past three games off short rest the past two years, in which he averaged 25 carries and 6.6 yards a rush, K.C.’s in big trouble if it’s counting on facing a weary RB. But conversely, the Titans’ 1-2 receiving punch of Julio Jones (hamstring) and A.J. Brown (illness) are iffy yet again. The K.C. defense, though, is nothing like the Super Chiefs of two seasons ago, when they gave up the fifth fewest points in the league. These days, they’re 28th.
Pick: Titans 31, Chiefs 27
Last week: 8-6 ATS; 10-4 SU
Season total: 53-39-2 (.576) ATS; 63-31 (.670) SU
Also read: NFL Week 7 early line moves | NFL Week 7 totals
About the Author
