NFL Week 7 Odds And Picks: AFC Showdowns Highlight Early Slate

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NFL Week 7 is here, with six games slated for the early Sunday window. Here is a rundown of odds and picks. Lines were available as of this Friday publication

Bengals (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) at Ravens (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS)

BetMGM line: Ravens -6 (46.5)
The skinny: The Bengals will be looking to tie the Ravens for first place in the AFC North after finishing last in the division the past three seasons.
Facts: Bengals star QB Joe Burrow is still having issues with a throat contusion he suffered two weeks ago and has been whispering a lot. The Ravens and QB Lamar Jackson have swept the two-game series the past two years, each time as double-digit favorites. In the lone game Burrow started against them, Baltimore won 27-3. Baltimore rushed for 404 yards in last season’s regular-season finale vs. Cincinnati, a 38-3 victory. That ground total is 19 yards off the league record. But of the four RBs used, three are hurt and the other playing elsewhere.
Analysis: Wonder how good Burrow will be at barking audibles in front of a roaring crowd? That’s got to play a role here. In the passing game, Cincinnati’s WR Ja’Marr Chase is indeed one of the best long-ball threats in the game, but he won’t be going against the Bengals defense like Ravens TE Mark Andrews and his receiving buddies. Two weeks ago, he had a career-high 11 catches for 147 yards vs. Indy. That same weekend, Cincinnati’s pass defense allowed a season-high 206 receiving yards to Green Bay’s Davante Adams. Cincinnati still has some growing up to do.
Pick: Ravens 34, Bengals 20

Washington (2-4 SU, 1-5-1 ATS) at Packers (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS)

DraftKings line: Packers -8 (48.5)
The skinny: The line has plunged from a 9.5-point spread early this week for this NFC interconference game at Lambeau.
Facts: Green Bay is coming off a 24-14 win against the Bears last week. But since 2010, there has been no hangover after playing in Chicago, as Green Bay is 10-2 SU/9-2-1 ATS in those spots, and one of those losses was with Brett Hundley at QB. Washington all-purpose RB Antonio Gibson (shin) and top WR Terry McLaurin (hamstring) are listed as questionable. Not to mention the right side of the offensive line.
Analysis: Under normal circumstances, Green Bay would have little trouble covering this reduced spread against a team shell-shocked from a second-half collapse at home against the Chief last week. But the Packers have a Thursday night road game in Arizona next week, which may have a major bearing on who gets the NFC’s top playoff seed. Fingers crossed Green Bay doesn’t rest players too early and are victimized by a backdoor cover. If Washington is looking ahead at anything, it’s probably its bye in two weeks.
Pick: Packers 28, Football Team 23

Falcons (2-3 SU and ATS) Dolphins (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)

BetRivers line: Falcons -2 (48)
The skinny: The Dolphins requested a bye week later in the season, so they aren’t taking the customary week off after returning from a game in London and will face a Falcons team off a bye (probably didn’t request that). Regardless of the request, it amounts to scheduling injustice.
Facts: For some reason, Miami was a 2.5-point favorite in advanced wagering last week. Dating to 2007, there have been 30 games in England. Only four previous times has a team been scheduled to play the next week, including Miami in 2017, but never against such a well-rested team. Those travel-weary teams went 2-2 ATS/SU that next week, including a victory by the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite over Tennessee in 2017. In their last meeting, in 2017, Miami won in Atlanta 20-17 as a 13.5-point underdog, the biggest point-spread upset of the season.
Analysis: Also in Atlanta’s favor is the return to action of its two top WRs, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage, who missed its 27-20 win over the Jets two weeks ago in London. Conversely, Miami could be without its top two cornerbacks again. Ugh! And although Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa played again last week after missing three games (ribs), his team still lost to winless Jacksonville.
Pick: Falcons 26, Dolphins 14

Jets (1-4 SU, ATS) at Patriots (2-4 SU, ATS)

DraftKings line: Patriots -6.5 (43)
The skinny: The Patriots will be attempting to win their 12th straight against the Jets, which would be the longest current streak in the league by one team vs. another.
Facts: In a Week 2 get-together in the Meadowlands, the Jets didn’t score a TD in a 25-6 loss, and rookie QB Zach Wilson threw four INTs. Sound familiar? Four years earlier on the same field, the Patriots shut out the Jets and intercepted Sam Darnold four times. In the Jets’ Week 4 upset of visiting Tennessee, they had seven sacks. In their 27-20 loss a week later vs. Atlanta in London, they didn’t have any. Speaking of sacks, or lack of, New England didn’t have any last week in its 35-29 OT loss to Dallas, going 0-for-51 when Dak Prescott dropped back.
Analysis: In light of the fact New England went toe-to-toe with Dallas last week, particularly in the running game with Damien Harris going for 101 yards, the Patriots should do well here. New York appears vulnerable to such an attack with MLB C.J. Mosley babying a hamstring injury and with little in the way of talent behind him. And in pass defense, the Jets still don’t have an INT.
Pick: Patriots 27, Jets 10

Panthers (3-3 SU, ATS) at Giants (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)

DraftKings line: Panthers -2.5 (42.5)
The skinny: Carolina QB Sam Darnold returns to his old home stadium when the free-falling Panthers face the free-falling Giants.
Facts: The Giants gave up a league season-high 28 points to the Rams in the second quarter en route to a 38-11 defeat last week, triggering an early mass exodus of fans. Hmmmmm….Denver has more victories playing in the Meadowlands this season (two) than the two New York tenants combined (one). The Panthers, who have lost three straight, are tied for sixth in the league with 16 sacks, but didn’t have any last week in their 34-28 OT loss to Minnesota. Darnold and WR D.J. Moore have teamed up for nine pass plays of 20-plus yards, fourth most in the league.
Analysis: It’s hard to find any key offensive players for New York not on the injury list, with top RB Saquon Barkley and WRs Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton likely to sit out once again. And now three of last week’s starters, TE Evan Engram (questionable) and WRs Sterling Shepard (questionable) and Kadarius Toney (doubtful, ankle) could miss roll call. And with QB Daniel Jones off a concussion two weeks ago, likely still being told not to do much running, what do the Giants have left?
Pick: Panthers 27, Giants 13

Chiefs (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) at Titans (4-2 SU, ATS)

DraftKings line: Chiefs -5 (57.5)
The skinny: The Chiefs and their dynamic passing game face the host Titans and their bulldozing running attack in a key battle for AFC playoff positioning.
Facts: Tennessee’s Derrick Henry, barreling toward his third consecutive rushing title, gained 188 yards on 23 carries the last time K.C. was in Nashville, in 2019, but 10 weeks later, in the AFC title game at Arrowhead, got only 69 yards on 19 rushes. This is the third time this season the Chiefs face a team off a MNF game. Previously, they lost at Baltimore and won at Philly. K.C. leads the NFL with 14 turnovers, thanks largely to Patrick Mahomes’ eight INTs. That’s three more than he had in 14 games last season.
Analysis: Based on Henry’s past three games off short rest the past two years, in which he averaged 25 carries and 6.6 yards a rush, K.C.’s in big trouble if it’s counting on facing a weary RB. But conversely, the Titans’ 1-2 receiving punch of Julio Jones (hamstring) and A.J. Brown (illness) are iffy yet again. The K.C. defense, though, is nothing like the Super Chiefs of two seasons ago, when they gave up the fifth fewest points in the league. These days, they’re 28th.
Pick: Titans 31, Chiefs 27

Last week: 8-6 ATS; 10-4 SU
Season total: 53-39-2 (.576) ATS; 63-31 (.670) SU

Also read: NFL Week 7 early line moves | NFL Week 7 totals

Bet TypeSpreads
Open
Thu (10/21) @ 8:22pm ET DEN Broncos +190 +4000 +1700 +4000 +108 +3500 0
CLE Browns -227 0 -10000 0 -122 0 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET CIN Bengals +225 0 -10000 0 +225 0 0
BAL Ravens -278 +4500 +3300 +6000 -263 +8000 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET WAS Washington +375 +10000 +3300 +4000 +335 +8000 0
GB Packers -500 0 -10000 0 -417 0 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET ATL Falcons -110 -2000 -164 -400 -127 -714 0
MIA Dolphins -110 +900 +140 +300 +112 +470 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET NY Jets +240 +10000 +3300 +6000 +265 +8000 +1700
NE Patriots -303 0 -10000 0 -313 0 -5000
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET CAR Panthers -149 +10000 +600 +4500 -149 +8000 +670
NY Giants +125 0 -1000 0 +133 0 -1000
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET KC Chiefs -189 +5000 +1050 +4000 -200 +8000 0
TEN Titans +160 0 -2500 0 +170 0 0
Sun (10/24) @ 4:05pm ET DET Lions +750 +10000 +1350 +6000 +800 +8000 0
LA Rams -1250 0 -5000 0 -1111 0 0
Sun (10/24) @ 4:05pm ET PHI Eagles +125 +8000 +1400 +3000 +100 +8000 0
LV Raiders -149 0 -5000 0 -114 0 0
Sun (10/24) @ 4:25pm ET HOU Texans +875 +8000 +1300 +6000 +1200 +8000 0
ARI Cardinals -1000 0 -5000 0 -2000 0 0
Sun (10/24) @ 4:25pm ET CHI Bears +550 +6000 +3300 +5000 +480 +8000 +1475
TB Buccaneers -769 0 -10000 0 -625 0 -3333
Sun (10/24) @ 8:22pm ET IND Colts +160 0 -1250 -10000 +148 0 0
SF 49ers -189 +6000 +700 +2800 -175 +3000 0
Mon (10/25) @ 8:15pm ET NO Saints -227 -833 -227 -208 -227 -769 0
SEA Seahawks +190 +500 +180 +175 +195 +490 0
Thu (10/21) @ 8:22pm ET DEN Broncos +5.5 -110 +6.5 -120 +6.5 +125 +3.5 -115 +1.5 -105 +5.5 +190 +3.0 0
CLE Browns -5.5 -110 -6.5 -110 -6.5 -154 -3.5 -115 -1.5 -109 -5.5 -250 -3.0 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET CIN Bengals +6.5 -110 -24.0 +145 -17.5 -105 -24.0 -714 +6.5 -114 -23.5 -3333 -23.5 0
BAL Ravens -6.5 -110 +24.0 -175 +17.5 -115 +24.0 +475 -6.5 -106 +23.5 +1060 +23.5 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET WAS Washington +10.0 -105 +11.5 -115 +12.5 +190 +13.5 +150 +8.5 -109 +13.5 +420 +14.0 0
GB Packers -10.0 -115 -11.5 -115 -12.5 -250 -13.5 -179 -8.5 -112 -13.5 -667 -14.0 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET ATL Falcons +1.0 -115 -3.5 -115 -1.5 -10000 -2.5 +155 -1.5 -112 -4.5 -128 -6.5 0
MIA Dolphins -1.0 -105 +3.5 -115 +1.5 +2800 +2.5 -189 +1.5 -109 +4.5 +100 +6.5 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET NY Jets +6.5 -105 +33.5 +350 +33.5 +260 +34.0 -161 +7.0 -106 +33.5 +320 +35.0 0
NE Patriots -6.5 -115 -33.5 -526 -33.5 -345 -34.0 +130 -7.0 -108 -33.5 -455 -35.0 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET CAR Panthers -3.0 -105 +15.0 -115 +21.5 +360 +22.0 -135 -3.0 -104 +21.5 +1060 +13.5 0
NY Giants +3.0 -115 -15.0 -115 -21.5 -500 -22.0 +105 +3.0 -110 -21.5 -3333 -13.5 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET KC Chiefs -4.5 -105 +16.5 -115 +23.5 +260 +23.5 +155 -4.0 -114 +23.5 +142 +24.5 0
TEN Titans +4.5 -115 -16.5 -115 -23.5 -345 -23.5 -189 +4.0 -108 -23.5 -185 -24.5 0
Sun (10/24) @ 4:05pm ET DET Lions +15.5 -110 +6.0 +100 +6.5 -105 +600.0 0 +16.5 -110 +8.5 +520 +6.0 -105
LA Rams -15.5 -110 -6.0 -130 -6.5 -115 -600.0 +6000 -16.5 -110 -8.5 -909 -6.0 -115
Sun (10/24) @ 4:05pm ET PHI Eagles +3.0 -110 +18.5 +110 +10.5 +165 +11.0 +140 +0.5 -109 +10.5 +190 +14.5 0
LV Raiders -3.0 -110 -18.5 -141 -10.5 -200 -11.0 -169 -0.5 -112 -10.5 -250 -14.5 0
Sun (10/24) @ 4:25pm ET HOU Texans +17.0 -110 +25.5 +325 +25.5 +450 +26.5 -1250 +19.5 -110 +26.5 -10000 +29.0 0
ARI Cardinals -17.0 -110 -25.5 -476 -25.5 -667 -26.5 +700 -19.5 -112 -26.5 +1200 -29.0 0
Sun (10/24) @ 4:25pm ET CHI Bears +12.5 -110 +35.0 -385 +34.5 +125 +35.0 -200 +12.0 -109 +34.5 +560 +36.0 0
TB Buccaneers -12.5 -110 -35.0 +270 -34.5 -149 -35.0 +165 -12.0 -105 -34.5 -1000 -36.0 0
Sun (10/24) @ 8:22pm ET IND Colts +4.0 -110 -7.0 -110 -7.5 -135 -11.5 -161 +3.5 -112 -11.5 -294 -3.5 0
SF 49ers -4.0 -110 +7.0 -120 +7.5 +110 +11.5 +130 -3.5 -103 +11.5 +215 +3.5 0
Mon (10/25) @ 8:15pm ET NO Saints -5.5 -110 -3.5 +110 -4.0 -110 -4.0 -110 -5.5 -106 -3.5 +520 -2.5 -132
SEA Seahawks +5.5 -110 +3.5 -141 +4.0 -110 +4.0 -110 +5.5 -108 +3.5 -909 +2.5 +110
Thu (10/21) @ 8:22pm ET DEN Broncos u44 -110 u33 -115 u30.5 +125 u40.5 -114 u34.5 -278 u32 -105
CLE Browns o44 -110 o33 -115 o30.5 -154 o40.5 -108 o34.5 +210 o32 -115
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET CIN Bengals u47 -110 u64 +110 u64.5 +170 u46 -110 u45.5 -110 u58.5 -2000 u54.5 0
BAL Ravens o47 -110 o64 -141 o64.5 -200 o46 -110 o45.5 -110 o58.5 +870 o54.5 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET WAS Washington u48.5 -105 u37.5 +140 u36.5 -200 u48 -110 u48.0 -114 u34.5 -526 u36 0
GB Packers o48.5 -115 o37.5 -169 o36.5 +165 o48 -110 o48.0 -108 o34.5 +360 o36 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET ATL Falcons o48 -105 o55 -130 o58.5 +1850 o47.5 -110 o48.0 -110 o61.5 +128 o54.5 0
MIA Dolphins u48 -115 u55 +100 u58.5 -10000 u47.5 -110 u48.0 -110 u61.5 -164 u54.5 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET NY Jets u42.5 -110 u61.5 -154 u57.5 -120 u42.5 -110 u42.5 -108 u60.5 -233 u62 0
NE Patriots o42.5 -110 o61.5 +125 o57.5 +100 o42.5 -110 o42.5 -114 o60.5 +176 o62 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET CAR Panthers o44.5 -105 o24.5 -105 o29.5 +190 o43 -110 o43.0 -108 o28.5 +870 o24.5 0
NY Giants u44.5 -115 u24.5 -125 u29.5 -250 u43 -110 u43.0 -114 u28.5 -2000 u24.5 0
Sun (10/24) @ 1:00pm ET KC Chiefs o56.5 -105 o43 -115 o41.5 -110 o59 -110 o58.5 -108 o30.5 +136 o43.5 0
TEN Titans u56.5 -115 u43 -115 u41.5 -110 u59 -110 u58.5 -114 u30.5 -175 u43.5 0
Sun (10/24) @ 4:05pm ET DET Lions o50 -110 o53.5 -115 o52.5 +105 o50.5 -110 o50.5 -109 o47.5 +630 o52.5 -110
LA Rams u50 -110 u53.5 -115 u52.5 -130 u50.5 -110 u50.5 -112 u47.5 -1250 u52.5 -110
Sun (10/24) @ 4:05pm ET PHI Eagles u48 -110 u53 -130 u51.5 +110 u48 -110 u48.0 -109 u55.5 -476 u50.5 0
LV Raiders o48 -110 o53 +100 o51.5 -135 o48 -110 o48.0 -112 o55.5 +330 o50.5 0
Sun (10/24) @ 4:25pm ET HOU Texans u48 -110 u42.5 -115 u43.5 -145 u47.5 -110 u47.5 -112 u36.5 -10000 u39.5 0
ARI Cardinals o48 -110 o42.5 -115 o43.5 +120 o47.5 -110 o47.5 -109 o36.5 +1000 o39.5 0
Sun (10/24) @ 4:25pm ET CHI Bears o49 -110 o48.5 +100 o49.5 +145 o47 -110 o47.0 -112 o41.5 +600 o48.5 -105
TB Buccaneers u49 -110 u48.5 -130 u49.5 -175 u47 -110 u47.0 -109 u41.5 -1111 u48.5 -115
Sun (10/24) @ 8:22pm ET IND Colts o44.5 -110 o47 -105 o44.5 -135 o41.5 -110 o48.5 +142 o48 0
SF 49ers u44.5 -110 u47 -125 u44.5 +110 u41.5 -110 u48.5 -185 u48 0
Mon (10/25) @ 8:15pm ET NO Saints o44.5 -110 o26.5 +105 o42.5 -110 o42.5 -110 o41.5 -110 o23.5 +255 o26.5 0
SEA Seahawks u44.5 -110 u26.5 -135 u42.5 -110 u42.5 -110 u41.5 -110 u23.5 -345 u26.5 0
About the Author
Bob Christ

Bob Christ

Bob Christ, based in New Mexico, has been a gaming writer (primarily the NFL) for almost four decades, with his work appearing in publications/websites across North America. He's a big fan of the Arkansas Razorbacks, Philadelphia's Eagles and Phillies, and inexplicably the NHL's Winnipeg Jets.

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