NFL Week 9 Odds And Picks: Bengals A Slight Home Favorite Vs. Browns On Early Sunday Betting Slate

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Shelley Lipton/Icon Sportswire

Sunday’s early 1:00 p.m. window features eight games including a key AFC matchup with Browns-Bengals kicking off in Cincinnati.

The Bengals were a consensus -2.5 favorite across the sports betting market on Friday.

Cleveland Browns (4-4, 4-4 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3, 4-4 ATS)

DraftKings line: Bengals by 2.5 (47)
The skinny: If this game is anything like last year’s two meetings between Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow and Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield, expect the “over” to be achieved long before the final gun.
Facts: In Burrow’s second career start last season, he threw 61 times in a 35-30 prime-time loss on the road despite the Bengals running 30 more plays than Cleveland. The Browns won the second game five weeks later 37-34, with Mayfield having five TD passes. In Cincinnati’s 34-31 loss to the host Jets last week, the Bengals had a first-and-goal at the NYJ 1 and turned the ball over on downs. Yikes! All three of Cincinnati’s losses have been by three points. Last year, they had four by 23 or more.
Analysis: The Browns have struggled mightily on offense the past three weeks, scoring 14, 17 and then 10 points last Sunday in a home loss to Pittsburgh that capped a three-game homestand. And that loss to the Steelers came with RB Nick Chubb back in the lineup. Chubb ran for 61 yards on 16 carries. But there will probably be no more Odell Beckham Jr. sightings after he requested multiple personal days while moping about not being targeted enough. And that’s a good thing, so now Mayfield won’t have disruptive chatter in his ear — just like last year’s playoff run when OBJ was hurt. And what are the chances WR Jarvis Landry has butterfingers again like he did on Halloween?
Pick: Browns 27, Bengals 21

 

Atlanta Falcons (3-4, 3-4 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (5-2, 4-3 ATS)

DraftKings line: Saints by 6 (41.5)
The skinny: The big question entering the game is whether Taysom Hill (concussion protocol) or Trevor Siemian will start at QB for New Orleans in the wake of the season-ending knee injury to Jameis Winston.
Facts: Hill was a full participant in Thursday drills, so it looks like he’ll get the call.  He’s had four career starts at QB, all last season, and two were victories against Atlanta. Siemian, the primary starter for Denver in 2016-17, played the bulk of last week’s game after Winston went down in a 36-27 win over visiting Tampa Bay. From 1984-1999, the Falcons were 16-0 ATS facing N.O. in the Superdome, including 10 straight-up victories as an underdog. But since then they’ve gone 8-13 ATS/7-10 SU. In last year’s meeting in New Orleans, the Saints won 24-9 and sacked Atlanta’s Matt Ryan eight times, tied for the most by anyone in a game in 2020.
Analysis: Ryan helped sabotage his team’s chances last week in a 19-13 home loss to Carolina with two INTs in enemy territory. Such play won’t cut it against the Saints’ second-rated pass defense (based on defensive passer rating) and with Ryan’s top receiver, Calvin Ridley, out while dealing with mental health issues. And last week, despite the fact the Falcons held the Panthers to 19 points, they allowed Carolina to have three drives of 15-plus plays, something no other team has done this year. Plus, the Falcons didn’t get a sack against a team that had given up at least three in its previous five games. As long as Hill doesn’t engineer a turnover-fest, New Orleans should roll.
Pick: Saints 31, Falcons 20

Buffalo Bills (5-2, 4-2-1 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6, 2-5 ATS)

DraftKings line: Bills by 14.5 (48.5)
The skinny: The Bills will try to keep pace with the three other two-loss division leaders when they play in Jacksonville against coach Urban Meyer’s disappointing Jaguars.
Facts: This will be the teams’ first meeting in Florida since the Jags prevailed 10-3 over QB Tyrod Taylor and the Bills in the wild-card round of 2017. In Jacksonville’s 31-7 drubbing last week in Seattle, backup Seahawks QB Geno Smith was 20-for-24 passing with two TDs. Now the Jags will face Josh Allen, last year’s league MVP runner-up. Buffalo will have to keep an eye on TE Dawson Knox’s injured hand, which left him limited in Thursday drills. He has a team-high five receiving TDs. Buffalo is yielding 269.0 yards a game on defense, the best league mark since the 2009 Jets finished at 252.3. That’s bad news for the plodding Jags offense since leading rusher James Robinson has been missing practice (questionable, heel).
Analysis: The Jaguars, 0-3 ATS at home, took a big step backward last week with their lopsided loss after a bye against a team that was working on short rest off a MNF road game three time zones away. A key will be if Buffalo, a 26-11 winner over Miami last week, can fight off complacency as it works work through its current three-game stretch against three teams (Miami, Jacksonville and the NY Jets) that are a cumulative 4-19.
Pick: Bills 28, Jaguars 10
BUF Bills vs JAX Jaguars Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Sun (11/7) @ 1:00pm ET

BUF Bills at JAX Jaguars
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Denver Broncos (4-4, 4-4 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (6-1, 7-0 ATS)

FanDuel Line: Cowboys by 9.5 (49.5)
The skinny: The Cowboys, off their upset win at Minnesota behind backup QB Cooper Rush in his first career start, look to get Dak Prescott (calf) back for this one.
Facts: Prescott announced he’s nearly 100% good to go after watching Dallas win at Minnesota, 20-16. Dallas has lost to Denver six consecutive times, not winning since coach Barry Switzer was in charge in 1995. Three of the Broncos’ victories this year came against rookie QBs or backups, including last week’s 17-10 home win vs. Washington and Taylor Heinicke, who threw two INTs and was sacked five times. FYI: Both teams have offensive tackles who are doubtful to play with ankle injuries suffered last week — Denver’s Garett Bolles and Dallas’ Tyron Smith.
Analysis: Dallas’ third-down defense was in high gear last week, allowing Kirk Cousins and the Vikings only one conversion in 13 tries. Now, against an offense that has been far less productive, that’s bad news for a a Broncos team that’s at least a little grumpy about the trade of defensive standout Von Miller to the Rams. Can’t see QB Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos coming close in a duel with Prescott.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Broncos 13
DEN Broncos vs DAL Cowboys Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Sun (11/7) @ 1:00pm ET

DEN Broncos at DAL Cowboys
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Houston Texans (1-7, 4-4 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (1-7, 2-4-1)

DraftKings Line: Dolphins by 5.5 (46)
The skinny: A pair of teams that won on opening day have both gone winless since. This game will feature the return of Houston QB Tyrod Taylor from a hamstring injury.
Facts: Taylor led the Jaguars to a 37-21 win over visiting Jacksonvlle as a 3.5-point underdog, but he didn’t make it through his Week 2 game in Cleveland before yielding to rookie QB Davis Mills, who evolved into the league’s 29th-rated passer and steered the Texans to seven straight defeats. In the last meeting between these two teams, Houston QB Deshaun Watson matched a career-high with five TD passes in a 42-23 victory in 2018. Of course, these days Watson is famously in limbo with the courts and the trade deadline has passed. At least Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa can take a deep breath after a rumored deal with the Dolphins for Watson never materialized.
Analysis: Houston WR Brandin Cooks probably is the happiest of all his teammates that Taylor is back for they teamed on five pass plays for 132 yards in that Week 1 victory in which the QB had two TDs and no INTs. However, the Texans suffered a blow when RB Mark Ingram was recently traded to the Saints. The team’s running by committee style will have to do against a Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd overall.
Pick: Texans 28, Dolphins 21
HOU Texans vs MIA Dolphins Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Sun (11/7) @ 1:00pm ET

HOU Texans at MIA Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Las Vegas Raiders (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at NY Giants (2-6, 4-4 ATS)

FanDuel Line: Raiders by 3.5 (46.5)
The skinny: The AFC West-leading Raiders make the second of their four trips to the Eastern time zone to face a Giants team that just came off a close-call loss at Kansas City.
Facts: In addition to prepping for this game, the Raiders had to deal with the tragedy that occurred Tuesdy morning in Las Vegas when WR Henry Ruggs III was charged with DUI in a high-speed crash that resulted in a death. He was cut later that day. Vegas is off a bye while the Giants are coming off their MNF loss at KC, but teams have gone 11-2 ATS the next week after playing on a Monday. Go figure: NYG’s Daniel Jones threw for 402 yards against the Saints’ second-rated pass defense in Week 4, but in his other seven outings hasn’t reached 270.
Analysis: The Giants would have had a better chance to win here had star RB Saquon Barkley been over his ankle injury and not put on the COVID list. He’s out. Meanwhile, the Raiders and QB Derek Carr have responded extremely well after coach Jon Gruden abruptly resigned in shame before their Week 6 game in Denver. But it was about this time last year that a confident 6-4 Raiders team — perhaps overconfident — made the long trip to Atlanta to face a 3-7 Falcons team. The Raiders, a 3-point road favorite, were shellacked 43-6. Now, it’s NY’s turn for an upset.
Pick: Giants 28, Raiders 24
LV Raiders vs NY Giants Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Sun (11/7) @ 1:00pm ET

LV Raiders at NY Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Minnesota Vikings (3-4, 3-4 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (5-2, 3-4 ATS)

DraftKings Line: Ravens by 6 (50)
The skinny: The reeling Vikings, coming off an exasperating loss to Dallas, now face a first-place Ravens team fresh off a bye.
Facts: Baltimore has yielded 500-plus yards in two of their past three outings, a 31-25 win over Indy and a 41-17 loss to Cincinnati (both at home) plus 491 to the Raiders in Week 1. No other team has allowed more than one 500-yard game. Hyped Baltimore rookie WR Rashod Bateman, its first-round pick, has been targeted six times in his two games since coming off a groin injury. Minnesota will be without QB harasser Danielle Hunter (six sacks), who just went on IR with a pectoral injury.
Analysis: If QB Kirk Cousins and the Vikings couldn’t beat a visiting underdog Cowboys team that was using a first-time starter at QB who was cut from the Giants’ practice squad last year, their chances seem to be gloomier here against a former league MVP in Lamar Jackson on the road. In that Dallas game, Minnesota had a plus-2 turnover edge.
Pick: Ravens 34, Vikings 21
MIN Vikings vs BAL Ravens Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Sun (11/7) @ 1:00pm ET

MIN Vikings at BAL Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland

New England Patriots (4-4, 4-4 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (4-4, 4-4 ATS)

DraftKings Line: Patriots by 3.5 (41)
The skinny: After being written off by many after their 2-4 start, the Patriots seek a third straight win against a team whose starting QB, Sam Darnold, is questionable  (concussion protocol/right shoulder).
Facts: As a member of the Jets, Darnold was 0-3 when facing New England, his team being outscored by an average of 33-6. His backup this season, P.J. Walker, who played for head coach Matt Rhule at Temple, is 3-for-15 passing this year in a relief role. Flashback: In 2017, the Panthers pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the year when they traveled to NE as a 9-point dog and won 33-30 over the Super Bowl-bound Patriots. NE’s 27-24 win over the Chargers in LA last week was its first against a team with a winning record.
Analysis: Even before Darnold got hurt (he was “extremely limited” Thursday), he was yanked by Rhule two weeks ago for having bad mechanics. Rhule then got to watch Walker fill in and have as many completions as sacks. Big, big edge here for a Patriots team that already has given three far better opposing QBs their worst passer ratings of the year. Does it really matter if RB Christian McCaffrey plays after coming off IR this week?
Pick: Patriots 27, Panthers 7
Last week: 4-11 ATS, 5-10 SU
Season total: 62-57-3 (.521) ATS; 77-45 (.631) SU
NE Patriots vs CAR Panthers Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Sun (11/7) @ 1:00pm ET

NE Patriots at CAR Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

Also read: Week 9 odds and early moves | Week 9 totals

About the Author
Bob Christ

Bob Christ

Writer
Bob Christ, based in New Mexico, is a sports betting writer at Gaming Today. He has been a gaming writer (primarily for the NFL) for more than four decades, with his work appearing in publications and websites across North America. Christ is a big fan of the Arkansas Razorbacks, Philadelphia Eagles and Phillies, and the NHL's Winnipeg Jets.

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