NFL Week 9 Odds, Betting Analysis, Picks: Trio Of Intriguing Games On Late Sunday Dockett

While the Aaron Rodgers situation takes some of the shine off the nationally-televised Packers-Chiefs tilt, there are two other intriguing matchups in the 4 p.m. ET Sunday window of NFL Week 9 card. Here are odds, betting analysis, and picks for the trio of late games.

The betting lines mentioned below were current as of Friday afternoon.

Chargers (4-3, 4-3 ATS) at Eagles (3-5, 4-4 ATS)

DraftKings line: Chargers -2 (49.5)

The skinny: The Eagles return home after their most one-sided road victory in four decades to play a Chargers team that only three weeks ago was talked about as Super Bowl material after a 4-1 start.

Facts: Eagles coach Nick Sirianni was grilled a while back for ignoring the running game and having QB Jalen Hurts throwing and scrambling too much. Then last week, in the team’s 44-6 rout of the Lions in Detroit, Philly had 236 rushing yards on 46 carries, the second most runs by any team this year. In the Eagles’ 26-24 win in L.A. four years ago, they had another big rushing day, with 42 carries for 214 yards en route to the world title.

This game marks the second week in a row the Chargers face a team coming off a victory of 38-plus points. Last Sunday, they were 27-24 losers as 4-point favorites at home to New England.

Analysis: The Chargers picked a bad time to face Philly, considering they are yielding a league-high 5.1 yards a rush. On offense, second-year QB Justin Herbert has slipped the past month, with his completion percentage getting worse each of the past five games, down to 51.4 last week, and he had by far his two worst passer-rating days of the season his past two games. This after he had 11 TD throws and no INTs in a three-game win streak. Plus, he was limited at midweek drills with a right-hand injury suffered late last week.

Chargers at Eagles Pick

Eagles 31, Chargers 23

Cardinals (7-1, 6-2 ATS) at 49ers (3-4, 2-5 ATS)

DraftKings Line: 49ers by 2.5 (45)

The skinny: The Cardinals likely will be without QB Kyler Murray as they look to regain their mojo after absorbing their first loss of the season last Thursday at home against Green Bay.

Facts: Murray is highly questionable with an ankle sprain and coach Kliff Kingsbury said he’d keep his star QB out of the lineup if he couldn’t play at a high level. Veteran backup Colt McCoy took all the first-team reps during drills Wednesday through Friday and should start. Also on the injury front, Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins (questionable, hamstring) isn’t expected to play either.

Teams with extended rest after playing on Thursday are only 6-8 ATS their next game this season. San Francisco rookie RB Elijah Mitchell, the league’s 16th-ranked rusher despite playing in only five games, had his third 100-yard game last week in Chicago when he ground out 137. But he was limited in Thursday and Friday drills (ribs).

In Arizona’s 24-21 loss to the Packers, the Cardinals ran only 43 plays to GB’s 71 until their late drive that led to Murray pitching an INT in the end zone in the waning moments. S.F.’s Jimmy Garoppolo averaged 11.5 yards per drop-back last week, the second time he’s done that in a game this season. In only two other league games was that number eclipsed this year. Also, 49ers TE George Kittle (calf) is back practicing and expected to play. But how much?

Analysis: The Cardinals are 3-0 as an underdog this season, winning each game by at least 17 points and this week will be facing an overvalued 49ers team that could be missing its top WR, Deebo Samuel (calf), in addition to Mitchell wrestling with his injury. Plus, the 49ers are getting too much credit for their 33-22 win in Chicago that came against a Bears team missing its coach, top defender, and star safety for most of the game. McCoy should do just fine.

Cardinals at 49ers pick

Cardinals 30, 49ers 20

Packers (7-1, 7-1 ATS) at Chiefs (4-4, 2-6 ATS)

BetMGM line: Chiefs -7 (48)

The skinny: Second-year Packers QB Jordan Love makes his first pro start after an unvaccinated Aaron Rodgers tested positive for COVID.

Facts: The last time the teams met, a 31-24 Packers win in K.C. two seasons ago, it was the Chiefs who had to go with a backup QB, when Matt Moore filled for injured Patrick Mahomes. Love isn’t a rookie but is close to it experience-wise. In close comparison, the six rookie QBs to make a start this season went 0-6 SU/ATS in their debuts.

The Chiefs are working on a short week coming off their 20-17 MNF home win against the Giants and facing a Green Bay team that had an extended break after winning at then-unbeaten Arizona, 24-21. The Packers’ one-two RB punch of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon spearheaded that upset, teaming for 137 rush yards on 31 clock-eating carries. Green Bay also gets back star WR Devante Adams (COVID).

Analysis: Kansas City continues to be burdened by turnovers, a league-high 19 this season, in their .500 start to the season. Over their past seven games, they have a minus-13 differential. In that same stretch, Green Bay has had a plus-15 margin. But with the new guy at QB for Green Bay, even the Chiefs and their mega-porous defense should be able to create confusion and turnovers. And probably even get a spread-beating win.

Chiefs at Packers Pick

Chiefs 35, Packers 23

Last week: 4-11 ATS, 5-10 SU
Season total: 62-57-3 (.521) ATS; 77-45 (.631) SU