NFL Week 9 player prop bets are live!
Last week was the worst we have had in this space so far this season. In fact, our 4-6 record was our first losing week of the year.
Things are trending up, though. In the free Gaming Today newsletter, our Thursday Night Football player props went 2-0, so we have some momentum carrying us into Sunday.
Lines opened for betting just ahead of this Friday writing, so if you see something you like, place your wager before the number moves. As always, the lines listed below were available at time of publication.
There is only one touchdown scorer prop offered for Week 9. largely because sportsbooks take forever on Fridays to post their TD props. This affects my ability to handicap the props effectively.
Current Record: 40-30 +16.46 units of profit
As always, follow the advice of Furio from The Sopranos — “Bet with your head, not over it”
NFL Week 9 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Player Prop Bet: Jordan Love +550 (DraftKings)
This line is +350 at other books. At +550 there is excellent value to be had. Expect Jordan Love to rely heavily on his legs as he replaces Aaron Rodgers for the Packers against the Chiefs. He is mostly unprepared to play, and his legs are one of his better assets. If his total rushing yards prop is around 15.5, ‘over’ is a solid play, too.
Week 9 NFL Player Prop Bets
Player Prop Bet: Marquez Valdes-Scantling Under 33.5 Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)
Valdes-Scantling is Green Bay’s fourth receiver, coming off of an injury, with backup quarterback Jordan Love making his first career start. This is a tough spot for Love and a tougher spot for his receivers, who have barely worked with him. Valdes-Scantling could have one catch for 70 yards and a touchdown, but this isn’t nearly as likely with Love under center. I love the ‘under’ on this prop this weekend.
Player Prop Bet: Cordarrelle Patterson Over 33.5 Receiving Yards -115 (BetMGM)
The Falcons figure to be in a battle with Trevor Siemian and the New Orleans Saints. In order to win that battle, their top weapon, Cordarrelle Patterson, needs to be the main focus of the offense. Calvin Ridley will be inactive again this weekend due to personal reasons, meaning Patterson will get more than his typical workload.
Week 9 NFL QB Prop Bets
QB Prop: Patrick Mahomes Over 37.5 Pass Attempts -115 (PointsBet)
Mahomes has blown past this number so many times it’s hard to believe it is still being offered. Perhaps it will move as the weekend progresses, but at 37.5, Mahomes is in an excellent position to beat this number. Below are his numbers from the last four games.
- vs. Giants 48 pass attempts
- at Titans 35 pass attempts
- at Washington 47 pass attempts
- vs. Buffalo 54 pass attempts
The Packers are more live as an underdog than the touchdown point spread suggests, and Mahomes will need to throw the ball to keep their offense moving.
QB Prop: Kirk Cousins Over 23.5 Completions -115 (BetMGM)
Captain Kirk is a terrible quarterback in primetime. Thankfully this game is not in primetime, set rather for a cool Sunday afternoon in Baltimore with temperatures in the 50s. Cousins averages 27 completions per game this season, and the Ravens pass defense is one of the worst in the league. Few expect the Vikings to win this game, but the Ravens are overrated, and Lamar Jackson constantly bails them out.
QB Prop: Justin Herbert Over 8.5 Rushing Yards -120 (DraftKings)
Justin Herbert runs more than many realize. This season, Herbert has failed to reach 8.5 rushing yards only two times in seven games. Let’s take a look at his rushing yard total below.
9/12: at Washington — 4 attempts for -1 yards
9/19: vs. DAL — 4 attempts for 12 yards
9/26: at KC — 4 attempts for 16 yards
10/4: vs. Las Vegas — 3 attempts for 4 yards
10/10: vs. CLE — 4 attempts for 29 yards
10/17: at BAL — 2 attempts for 12 yards
10/31: vs. NE — 2 attempts for 9 yards
Not asking for much here from Herbert.
Also read: Week 9 odds and early moves | Week 9 totals
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