The wild swing in betting lines for Packers-Chiefs this week spoke volumes as to how QB Aaron Rodgers is quantified in terms of the point spread.
Rodgers, who was added to the Covid list, will miss Sunday’s game at Kansas City.
A pick ‘em game quickly turned into Chiefs -7.5, and the news also triggered a precipitous drop in the total from 54.5 all the way to 48 at most books. DraftKings was offering 48.5 as of Thursday morning.
Jordan Love will make his first NFL start against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. The absence of Rodgers essentially equated to a full TD swing for both the spread and total.
Here’s a look at the remaining Week 9 totals, current as of Thursday morning.
NFL Week 9 Totals
Thursday: Jets at Colts (O/U 45.5)
Jets QB Mike White is coming off a breakout debut with 405 passing yards and three TDs against the Bengals. But after opening 46.5 in Las Vegas, the total for this game dropped to 45.5 at several books (BetMGM, PointsBet), while Caesars offers 46 for UNDER bettors.
Texans at Dolphins (O/U 46)
If these teams were the only beauty contestants left in the pageant, let’s just say that nobody would take home a prize. Miami managed just 11 points last week in a loss at Buffalo. The Texans have failed to score 10 points in half of their games this season. In those four contests, Houston mustered a combined 17 points.
Broncos at Cowboys (O/U 49.5)
Tricky number here, but it appears that Dak Prescott will return to the lineup against Denver. Without Prescott at Minnesota, the Cooper Rush-led offense produced 20 points. It was good enough to win, but it marked the first UNDER for the Cowboys in over a month.
Vikings at Ravens (O/U 49.5)
Another game standing firm at 49.5 at most books across the sports betting landscape. DraftKings, a notable exception, did have this total at 50.
Patriots at Panthers (O/U 41.5)
The SuperBook posted an opening total of 43.5 for Pats-Panthers. UNDER players have hammered it down to 41 at Las Vegas shop. Panthers QB Sam Darnold remains in concussion protocol, and it’s hard to envision an OVER scenario if backup PJ Walker starts this game for Carolina.
Bills at Jags (O/U 48.5)
Jacksonville has been an UNDER machine. In its last six games, just one has gone OVER the total. Buffalo’s defense travels well, too. It has allowed an average of 18 points in three road games. The last time the Bills were in Florida? They left with a 35-0 shutout over Miami in Week 2.
Browns at Bengals (O/U 46.5)
FanDuel is among the books offering 47 on this total midweek. You just wonder which Cleveland team will show up. OVER players should have lingering concerns after the Browns scored just 10 points in last week’s loss to Pittsburgh.
Raiders at Giants (O/U 46.5)
OVER players should check in at FanDuel to grab this at 46. The Raiders are riding a two-game OVER streak with an average of 33.5 points in their last two contests.
Falcons at Saints (O/U 42)
Taysum Hill or Trevor Siemian? The total for this game is low for more than one reason. The uncertainty surrounding the Saints QB situation and the strength of the New Orleans defense makes it justifiable.
Chargers at Eagles (O/U 50)
The Eagles trounced Detroit by a 44-6 win count last week. The Chargers aren’t the winless Lions, of course, but Philly will look to go OVER the total for a third straight week on Sunday.
Cardinals at 49ers (O/U 46)
These teams played less than a month ago and combined for just 27 points in Arizona’s 17-10 victory.
Titans at Rams (O/U 53.5)
This contest now features the highest total of the week after the Rodgers news dropped Wednesday. The Titans will have to do more through the air without RB Derrick Henry in the lineup.
Bears at Steelers (O/U 40)
The UNDER has hit in six of Chicago’s last seven games and five of Pittsburgh’s seven on the season. The Steelers also have a PUSH on the year and have gone OVER just once this year. Don’t overthink this MNF matchup.