No bridge from NCAA basketball Madness to NFL Football

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With the NCAA Tournament coming to a close, it signals another season of change for Las Vegas sports books.

Betting patterns are changed by the customers and vacation requests by book employees are more easily accepted by book managers across the city. April begins a lull in traffic through the sports books that gets progressively worse all the way to August when the NFL preseason starts, and even that is up in the air now with a possible strike.

Horse racing picks up some steam as we near the Triple Crown, but that doesn’t appeal to many of the traditional sports bettors like it did just a short decade ago.

The telling sign the season has changed, without knowing what month it is or what sport has stopped, is to simply look at a typical Saturday morning in any Las Vegas sports book from September through March and compare it with what we’ll see this Saturday.

It’s dead, quiet and there will be minimal windows open for betting.

The busiest day for the sports books now becomes Sunday morning from 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. as bettors all gather to bet their early baseball and NBA games.

It’s kind of surprising more bettors – the type who rush to the books for their four-team parlays in the NFL – don’t bet baseball more just because it’s the best value for the player against the house odds.

Not only does the player get the value of playing a 10 cent line – less at some places, but they get true payouts on parlays as opposed to fixed odds from a chart for basketball and football with odds that decrease with each additional leg added to a parlay when using a true 20 cent payout formula.

Because of those true odds payouts in baseball, sports book directors walk on egg-shells for the next four months just hoping to make some kind of profit until football starts and avoid the losing month that inevitably happens quite often in the baseball months.

 

Baseball, NBA save books

 

The two most bet upon games of last weekend were the Final Four games, but without the NBA and baseball helping, it would have been a losing day for most. The combination of favored Butler winning and covering and 2-point underdog Connecticut winning outright was a bad one for the house in both straight bets and parlays.

Keeping the parlay risk to a minimal 13-to-5 majority payout was helped by the Connecticut game staying under the total. However, the sharps had bet that game under from the opening number of 141½ to a closing number of 138 ½.

 

Houston coming on

 

There are only five to six games remaining for most NBA teams as some scramble to make the post-season while others try to maneuver for playoff position. Out west, the Hornets and Grizzlies are tied at 44-33 and hold the No. 7 and 8 spots.

Only three games out are the red hot Houston Rockets with Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin leading the way going 8-2 in their last 10 games. On Wednesday they’ll have a chance to help their own cause with a game at New Orleans. In their other four remaining games, only Dallas has a winning record.

Meanwhile, the Hornets have a tough road ahead with games against Phoenix, Memphis, Utah and Dallas. The Grizzlies have somewhat of easy road in their games. In addition to the Hornets, they face the Clippers twice, Sacramento and Portland.

No odds are offered on the possibilities of making the playoffs in Las Vegas sports books, but if they did, I would take some Houston action with hopes the Hornets tank it. To supplement that wishful action, I’ll just take Houston Wednesday night at New Orleans.

The Lakers took a major blow to their hopes of gaining the No. 1 seed out west when they lost to Denver on Sunday ending their nine game winning streak. The Spurs had been in a six game free-fall until beating Phoenix on Sunday and maintain a 2½ game lead over the Lakers.

The most interesting playoff matchup out west looks to be No. 4 and 5 seed with Oklahoma City and Denver. The Thunder have shown they can beat just about anyone this season but have lost two in a row, including one to the Clippers.

The Nuggets have gone a tear since hi-jacking the Knicks and dumping Carmelo Anthony. The loss of Chauncey Billups was initially thought to hurt the Nuggets more, but the combination of Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton running a two-headed point guard – on the court at the same time – has been tough for all teams they have faced.

Since the deal with New York, the Nuggets have gone 14-5 and have nearly secured the No. 5 slot. They may miss the star treatment of Carmelo by the officials in the playoffs, but they have so many scoring options now with not having to run everything through one player.

The Bulls and Heat are playing their best ball of the season in the East while the Celtics have sputtered. The trade that sent Kendrick Perkins away may have backfired.

GM Danny Ainge’s hopes of bringing in a quicker Jeff Green to be their James Posey-type of player while waiting for their twin O’Neal towers to return inside and elevate their game hasn’t happened yet. Shaquille O’Neal returned to action over the weekend for five minutes only to have his calf break down, something that can’t be promising since it could be stemming from his achilles problem.

 

X-Rays negative

 

The Rays played like one of the best teams in baseball last season playing great defense, getting good pitching and timely hitting. This season, they find themselves only being able to muster one run a game in their first three chances of the season against Baltimore and got swept at home.

Compounding matters for Tampa Bay is that their best player, 3B Evan Longoria went on the 15 day DL.

Whether it’s a matter of good pitching by Baltimore or bad hitting by the Rays, Buck Showalter’s staff came out and made a statement for the rest of the AL East to take notice.

A pitcher that could make big difference this year is Zach Britton who made his major league debut Sunday throwing six strong innings allowing only one run off of three hits. Britton had a terrific spring but was supposed to start the season in triple-A until Brian Matusz was placed on the DL.

Despite having a lineup full of free swingers like Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, Derrek Lee and Adam Jones, they have quite a nucleus of really good hitting players that stack up well against most lineups in baseball. Should Brian Roberts and Vladimir Guerrero be able to stay healthy, this could be a great season for the Baltimore faithful and definitely worth taking a shot with at 40-1 to win the AL and 80-1 to win the World Series.

While the O’s soar, the Red Sox slid miserably going 0-3 for the weekend at Texas where the potent lineup of Boston couldn’t get anything going against Texas pitching. Meanwhile, the Rangers hitters put on a show belting 11 home runs in the three games outscoring Boston 26-11. For the Red Sox, it’s their worst start since 1996 when they began 0-5.

Through the first weekend of baseball games we had six games with favorites of -200 or above and only the Phillies were able to win, doing so in all three of their games against the Astros.

The other three games saw the underdogs win outright with the Padres beating Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals opening day, then on Saturday the Diamondbacks beat the Rockies and the Orioles took down Tampa Bay.

A team better than the Phillies to bet OVER the total in each game this year may be the Cincinnati Reds. With Philadelphia, you have their tough staff to worry about ruining your bet, even though the Phillies can score runs in bunches.

With Cincinnati, they have a stacked lineup with only a few good pitchers that should lead to quite a few games going OVER. Drew Stubbs at the top of the order for the Reds has the makings of being a Carlos Gonzalez type and thus far has not disappointed.

It was nice to Felix Hernandez and Jaime Garcia go the distance and get complete games over the weekend. Even though their pitch counts were barely over 100, it’s rare to see pitchers – who are coddled so much because of the team‘s investment in them – go the distance this early in the year.

The pitching performance that stood out the most, beyond the Orioles Britton, was Toronto’s Kyle Drabek who pitched seven innings of one hit ball with seven K’s in their win Saturday over the Twins. We’ve been hearing his name the last two years as a great prospect for Philly, not only because he’s the son of ex-Pirates Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, but because he has great stuff.

It’s easy to see why the Phillies were so reluctant to deal him even if it meant not getting Roy Halladay.

 

Rice nice for UNLV

 

We should have an official announcement on Wednesday where former UNLV player David Rice will be announced as UNLV’s new head basketball coach. The match should be a perfect fit of mixing the old with the new for UNLV, accentuating on all the positives.

With Rice, we’ll get back to runnin’ and gunnin’ like the old days while also maintaining the integrity and stability to the program that Lon Kruger brought to the program. It’s a win-win for everyone, especially for the fans in Las Vegas.

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