At this point in the season, all of us bettors are well-versed in what’s going on in college football.
But beware of this situation. Knowing too much can sometimes make us lazy, resulting in cutting corners.
Don’t get too comfortable when making your plays without doing your research. Go back to the drawing board and check injuries, trends, streaks, remaining schedules, etc. Go back to the basics.
Don’t take for granted that because you have been winning that it will stay that way without doing your homework. Do this and your money should continue to roll in.
Here are this week’s Best Bets (Lines are as of Tuesday and can change. If a line is around a Hot Number or moves against us, be smart):
Clemson -32 at NC State: I don’t normally lay this type of lumber but the Tigers aren’t a normal college football team. The No.4 Clemson squad may have an opportunity to leapfrog the loser of the LSU-Alabama matchup with a good showing here.
NC State comes off back-to-back losses and has only covered once since August (1-6 ATS run). It won’t matter who the Wolfpack has calling the plays. But if quarterback Devin Leary is once again under center, the redshirt freshman may need to increase the coverage on his life insurance policy.
Clemson owns the nation’s second ranked pass defense (134 yards per game allowed in the air) and the overall sixth ranked stop unit (11.7 PPG allowed).
Just in case you were wondering, they have no problems running up scores (Beat Georgia Tech by 38, Syracuse by 35, Charlotte by 42, Florida State by 31, Louisville by 35, Boston College by 52, Wofford by 45).
The Tigers are 8-1 ATS the last nine on the road, 14-3 ATS the last 17 vs. conference foes, and 9-3 ATS the last 12 overall. CLEMSON
Illinois +15 at Michigan State: The oddsmakers are giving Michigan State way too much credit here as I feel this line should be single digits.
Under Lovie Smith, Illinois has improved by leaps and bounds this season, as they have won three straight, while covering four in a row against such notables as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Purdue.
Granted, MSU steps down in class a bit after consecutive losses to Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State, but the Spartans have become point spread poison, riding a four-game no- cover streak. Without much of a running game, the offense is left in the hands of erratic quarterback Brian Lewerke.
The potent rushing attack of Reggie Corbin and Dre Brown (1,019 yards rushing, nine TD’s combined) will keep the Michigan State “D” honest and keep this game very close.
The Fighting Illini are money in conference play, going 4-0 ATS the last four vs. Big Ten opponents. The Spartans are 0-4 ATS the last four vs. the Big Ten, 1-6 ATS the last seven at home, and 2-5 ATS the last seven following a bye week. ILLINOIS
LSU at Alabama -6.5: The general public moved this line from a TD down to a -6 as of deadline and as contrarian, I like it even more now.
Tua Tagovailoa (questionable) is listed as a game time decision, but reports are that quarterback returned to practice and is moving quite well.
His counterpart, Heisman Trophy front-runner Joe Burrow, heads up the nation’s No.2 passing unit. But he faces his toughest test yet with an Alabama pass defense that yields a mere 180.1 yards per game in the air, tallying 11 interceptions. The success of the Tigers’ offense relies on the passing game. Unlike recent years, they do not have a solid rushing attack, therefore this Crimson Tide defense can key on the pass.
Alabama appears to have the edge in the trenches which will allow the nation’s fifth-ranked aerial assault to exploit the Tigers 60th ranked pass “D.”
Nick Saban is one of the best coaches in the nation preparing his team for big games, so look for him to extend his winning streak in this series to nine straight (6-2 ATS last eight). ALABAMA
Kansas State +7 at Texas: Don’t fool yourself, with three straight wins and covers, Kansas State is for real. Quarterback Skylar Thompson (60.5 percent completion rate, 1,336 yards passing, 7 TDs, 1 INT) is playing with confidence and has the team believing they can win. He faces a “leaky” Texas defense (97th, 31.5 PPG allowed) that hasn’t held any offense in check since a Week 3 meeting with Rice.
Look for the Wildcats’ swarming and stingy secondary (18th, 186.2 yards per game in the air allowed) to frustrate Longhorns quarterback Sam Ehlinger.
KSU head coach Chris Klieman will have his offensive unit do what they do best, which is run, run, run. They will control the tempo, the clock, and the outcome here. The Wildcats are 9-2-1 ATS the last 12 meetings with the Longhorns, 4-1 ATS the last five on the road, and 8-2 ATS the last 10 overall. KANSAS STATE
Last week: 3-0-1