Nuggets vs. Lakers Game 4 Predictions, Odds, Props: LA Short Favorite to Avoid Sweep

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The proverb says, “Never Say Never.” And the sportsbooks add, “At Least Not Tonight”.

Despite an unpleasant predicament, the Lakers are favored between -3 at most books and -3.5 at BetMGM as they look to extend the West Finals series Monday night. Here, we break down Nuggets vs. Lakers Game 4 predictions, odds, and props.

No team has ever rallied from 3-0 down to win a best-of-seven NBA Playoff series. That’s exactly where the Lakers find themselves after bowing to the Nuggets 119-108 in Game 3 at -5.

Bettors don’t care that the evidence is 149-0 in favor of teams ahead 3-0. Tonight, they care about one game.

West Finals: Nuggets vs. Lakers First Basket Scorer Bets

Nuggets vs. Lakers Game 4 Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

As of Monday morning, Lakers -145 at Caesars Sportsbook is the most attractive moneyline we’re seeing on the favorite. Nuggets +135 can be had at DraftKings and BetMGM.

Bet TypeSpreads
Open

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The books believe the Lakers have one big game in them. The bettors think they don’t.

At DraftKings, the Nuggets have an outstanding 81% of the spread handle and 61% of the bets from gamblers who are wagering as if the three points are a gift.

Denver bettors apply the same belief on the moneyline, producing a solid majority of 79% of the handle and 76% of the bets at +135. Some of them may be rolling over a chunk of that +215 collection from Denver’s Game 3 straight-up road triumph.

The Over 224.5 for Game 4 commands 72% of the handle and 71 % of the tickets at DraftKings.

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Nuggets vs. Lakers Series Prop Bets: Potential Early Winners

Gamblers are salivating over some potentially-lucrative payouts if the Nuggets complete the series sweep on the road. Here is what would happen with a Denver victory:

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic
Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets catch points on odds boards vs. the Lakers in Game 4 of the West Finals (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)
  • Nuggets -1.5 games (+150) and -2.5 games (+295) both become winners.
  • The series to go exactly four games returns +600.
  • And a Denver sweep becomes Cha-Ching A-Ling-A-Ling, returning an excellent +1000.

Game 4 Props

Other props are less dramatic but will be played.

Over/under player points always generates handle.

  • Anthony Davis 26.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
  • Austin Reaves 17.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
  • LeBron James 24.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
  • Nikola Jokic 26.5 (Both sides -115)

Nuggets vs. Lakers Props at FanDuel

Jamal Murray has a substantial lead in the quest to become the top series scorer at +600. He has been on fire over the first three games, tabbing 105 points, 35 per game. That’s considerably above his 20-point regular-season average.

The over-achievement is not simply a case of a player getting hot. Murray has taken advantage of a game flow that played into a chance to come up big. The Lakers don’t want Nikola Jokic to beat them in the paint, and Murray has been free to launch outside bombs.

He’s connecting. Murray has hit 15-of-33 three-point shots, a percentage bordering on 50 percent and a game-breaker in this series.

Murray is one of the leaders in the Game 4 prop for the first player to reach 10 points.

  • Anthony Davis +320
  • Jokic +320
  • Murray +340
  • LeBron James +380
  • Austin Reaves +2100

Performance Doubles

  • Davis to get a double-double and Lakers win -116
  • James to get a double-double and Lakers win +130.
  • Reaves 5+ assists and Lakers win +176. He had seven assists in Game 3
  • Nuggets to trail by 10 and win pays +600

Comeback Props

Lakers to trail by 10 and win pays at +490. Applicable, as the Lakers trailed by 12 in Game 3 and took a fourth-quarter lead before losing.

Head vs. Heart: Lakers-Nuggets Game 4 Prediction

The Heart: James to notch a double-double and the Lakers win is good value (+130 FanDuel). He’s usually a lock for a double-double, giving you +130 instead of -156 on a Lakers moneyline bet.

The Lakers don’t want to be embarrassed in a sweep, and they beat the Nuggets in both regular-season games at home.

The Head: Stick a fork in the Lakers, they can’t match up. They yielded a 13-0 run at home in a game they looked primed to win. The Nuggets are bound for their first NBA Finals ever. The Lakers have never played from out front in this series.

The James double-double price should be much lower. This indicates he’s not sound, or that all the air has come out of the Lakers’ balloon.

The media is already giving James a soft spot to land when LA loses, not questioning his comments that he’s playing despite doctors advising surgery on his right foot.

Verdict: Forget the moneyline and spread bets, take the Over. (224 at PointsBet)

Side note: Jokic is due for a statement game. I will look for some props with him near game time.

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Sweet Chunks of Change: Lakers-Nuggets Game 3 Bet Winners

This one paid very well: the Nuggets to lead after every quarter. It returned +600 at FanDuel.

Denver jumped to a 12-point lead after one quarter, which was sliced to three by halftime. It was down to two by the end of the third quarter, but the Nuggets cashed this ticket.

Although the Lakers took the lead at the start of the fourth quarter, the Nuggets took it back and rode to what became a rare wire-to-wire road playoff victory.

Murray paid a nice +290 to be the leading scorer of the game.

Big players delivered more conventional payouts as slight favorites at DraftKings. Gamblers were on the right side of the Over and Under totals.

  • Murray crushed his 25.5 plateau with 37 and paid -110.
  • Davis slid past his 24.5 barrier with 28 and gave the bettors -115.
  • Jokic missed his 28.5 mark with 24 and thus the Under -125 cashed.
  • James continues to be dependable in scoring in the low 20-point range. So when his prop was bet up to 25.5, his 23 resulted in a -120 triumph for the Under crowd.

How to Watch Nuggets vs. Lakers Game 4

Game Date: Monday, May 22, 2023
Game Time: 8:30 p.m.
Location: Crypto.com Arena
Channel: ESPN

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About the Author
Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo

Writer
Dave Bontempo is an award-winning writer and broadcaster, who has covered the sports industry since the 1970s. He won the Sam Taub Award for Excellence in Boxing Broadcasting by the Boxing Writers Association of America in 1997, and is in the New Jersey and Atlantic City Boxing Halls of Fame. Bontempo has broadcast major fights all over the world. The advent of legalized sports wagering shifted his focus to this exciting new industry in 2018.

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