Ohio State vs Penn State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets: Nittany Lions Seek First Win Over OSU Since 2016

The biggest Big Ten game of the season takes place this Saturday in Columbus, Ohio, when the No. 3 Buckeyes will host No. 7 Penn State.

 

Both teams enter this showdown undefeated. The Buckeyes’ resume includes a road win over Notre Dame, but OSU has not played any other ranked opponents. Penn State is the less tested of these two teams, though the Nittany Lions did blow out No. 24 Iowa, 31-0, on Sept. 24.

Check out our Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction, odds, and best bets.

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Ohio State vs Penn State Spread, Moneyline, Total

Here are the best available odds for moneyline, spread, and total across top sports betting apps. Click on the odds you like to place a bet. Learn more about sports betting promos when signing up to receive bonus bets.

  • Spread: Penn State , Ohio State
  • Moneyline: Penn State , Ohio State
  • Over/Under:

Ohio State vs Penn State Betting Trends

  • Penn State, Ohio State ATS Records: Penn State 6-0, Ohio State 3-2-1
  • Penn State, Ohio State Over/Under Records: Penn State Over 4-2, Ohio State Over 1-5
  • Penn State, Ohio State best national championship odds: Penn State , Ohio State   
  • Penn State, Ohio State best Big Ten odds: Penn State , Ohio State  

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Ohio State vs Penn State Props

Some of the player props available for the top stars in this matchup — from OSU’s Kyle McCord and Marvin Harrison Jr. to Penn State QB Drew Allar — are listed below:

 

Neither McCord nor Allar have big totals for their passing TD or passing yards props due to both teams’ offensive balance. The Nittany Lions are running the ball more than 40 times per game. The Buckeyes have been more pass-heavy but still enter Week 7 averaging around 32 rushing attempts per contest. If you believe Penn State can at least keep this game close, taking Allar to exceed his passing yardage prop (188.5) is the best move.

As for the receiving yards props, it’s hard to watch Harrison Jr.’s tape and see how any college secondary can keep the future top-5 draft pick in check. His number (87.5) is substantial, but it feels well within reach for a player who’s already had four games with more than 100 yards receiving.

Ohio State vs Penn State Analysis and Prediction

Penn State entered this season with four 11-win seasons (2016, 2017, 2019, and 2022) in the last seven years. Still, fans in Happy Valley want more after seeing one College Football Playoff appearance after another by conference rivals OSU and Michigan in that time. If there’s one reason why Penn State supporters believe this could be the year they get over the hump, it’s QB Drew Allar, a 6-foot-5 sophomore who is expected to play on Sundays in the future. 

He’ll need to live up to that hype on Saturday at The Shoe for PSU to keep pace with Ohio State. Allar has been tough to evaluate thus far, because most weeks, RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have led the Nittany Lions to dominant wins in which Allar wasn’t asked to be a difference-maker. He threw for 325 yards in his team’s Week 1 win over West Virginia, but he’s had less than 210 yards passing in every other game this season.

In the offseason, the Buckeyes’ offense lost three stars who were first-round picks in the 2023 NFL Draft: QB CJ Stroud, OT Paris Johnson, and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. But the offense has remained potent with unproven junior Kyle McCord under center and star RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., and Emeka Egbuka keeping the Buckeyes among the most explosive teams in the nation.

However, they barely generated enough offense to beat Notre Dame on the road in Week 4. According to ESPN’s SP+, on Saturday, the Buckeyes are facing one of the few defenses in the country that is as good as Notre Dame’s (SP+ ranks Penn State’s D No. 2, compared to ND’s at No. 5).

The Nittany Lions haven’t won in Columbus since 2011, and their last home win over Ohio State came in 2016. That makes it tough to predict a road upset for them but give me Penn State covering as 4.5-point underdogs in a low-scoring game. Both PSU’s games against its top Big Ten opponents to date — Illinois and Iowa — went well under 46.5. Meanwhile, the total in Ohio State’s only game against a comparable opponent, the Irish, barely cracked 30 points.

Pick: Penn State (+4.5 at time of publishing), Under (45.5 at time of publishing)

How to Watch Ohio State vs Penn State

  • Date: Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023
  • Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Ohio Stadium
  • Network: FOX
About the Author
Tyler Everett

Tyler Everett

Writer
Tyler Everett has been a sports writer since joining the student newspaper at his alma mater, NC State, back in 2008. He has covered sports, sports betting, and the business of sports for several newspapers and websites, including the Denver Broncos, Charlotte Observer, High Press Soccer, and Sports Business Journal.

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