Oklahoma Vs. Baylor Betting Odds And Preview: Bears Sizable Underdogs To Stem Series Trend

The Baylor Bears must beat the undefeated Oklahoma Sooners this weekend if they want to keep their slim Big 12 title hopes alive. While the Bears have home-field advantage, the Sooners are favored by 5.5 points at many sportsbooks (DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel).

Oklahoma has owned Baylor over the years, winning 27 of 30 meetings, including the last seven. But the Sooners have not been as dominant this season as in years past. Could this be the year the Bears end the streak, or will Oklahoma make it eight in a row?

Oklahoma Sooners (9-0 SU, 4-5 ATS)

It is hard to figure out the Oklahoma Sooners this season. While they are undefeated, it has not been the usual dominant season fans have come to expect. Their offense is one of the most productive in college football (No. 5 in scoring; 42.9 points/game), but the Sooners have struggled to put teams away this season.

They’ve been winning, but many of their games have been close; four of their first five were by a touchdown or less. It took almost two months to get their first blowout victory against another FBS team (TCU, 52-31). They followed that up with a lackluster outing against a poor Kansas team. But then they bounced back with an excellent outing against Texas Tech (52-21).

The offense appeared to start turning things around in the Texas game after Spencer Rattler got benched for Caleb Williams. While Williams deserves some of the credit (he has averaged 291 passing yards a game in his three starts; Spencer Rattler averaged 252), he didn’t do it alone.

The run game deserves quite a bit of the credit as well. Oklahoma averaged just 124.5 yards per game in its first four against FBS teams. Since inserting Williams (including the Texas game), the rushing attack has averaged 215.25. This forces teams to respect the run and the pass, making it harder to stop either.

However, Oklahoma has gotten off to a slow start in almost every game this season. If they do so this week, it will not be easy to recover against Baylor.

Baylor Bears (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS)

Handing the Sooners their first loss would be an excellent way for Baylor to earn redemption after the loss to TCU last week — but it is not going to be easy. Oklahoma has the No. 1 passing attack, scoring offense, red-zone offense, and turnover margin in the Big 12.

Baylor’s pass defense is not one of the better ones in the conference, which could spell doom for the Bears. But Baylor has a chance to win if they can do two things: run the ball well and limit the Oklahoma run game.

Oklahoma has the most prolific passing game in the country; no one will slow them down. The best thing anyone can do is keep them off the field, which is where Baylor’s run game (best in the Big 12) comes in. However, the Sooners run defense ranks third in the conference and only allows a little over 100 yards a game.

But those defensive rushing stats could be misleading since teams often have to abandon the run and play catch-up against Oklahoma. If the Bears can run the ball effectively, they can keep Caleb Williams and the Oklahoma offense off the field.

Oklahoma has been at its best when it runs the ball well and the offense is balanced. The close games were ones where the Sooners leaned on the pass because the run game was ineffective (except for the Texas game).

If Baylor can take away that balance and force Oklahoma to throw the ball, the Bears defense may be able to force a mistake or two and steal a win.

Betting Analysis

Baylor’s offense will score some points Saturday. The question is whether they can get enough stops on defense. If they can’t establish the run or slow down the Oklahoma rushing game, this one could get out of hand by halftime.