The NFL playoffs move on to the Divisional round, and we have a classic matchup to discuss. The NFC’s top-seeded San Francisco 49ers will host the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night with an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff. This should be a great game, and we are here to break down the Packers vs. 49ers predictions, odds, and best bets.
San Francisco enjoyed a bye during the Wild Card round after demolishing everything in its path during the regular season. Their reward is an extra week of rest and the lowest remaining seed on the NFC’s side of the bracket. However, that team is the Packers, who ran over a Dallas Cowboys team that finished one game behind the 49ers in the NFC playoff standings.
Still, oddsmakers love San Francisco, as they are the Super Bowl 58 betting favorites and are favored by () points against Green Bay.
If you are looking to place a bet on the Packers vs. 49ers odds, we have got you covered. Here, we will preview the NFC divisional round matchup and give out our best Packers vs. 49ers predictions.
Packers vs. 49ers Spread, Moneyline, Total
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Green Bay Packers (10-8, 10-8 ATS)
The Packers were a consistently decent team the entire season. They finished with a 9-8 record and barely snuck into the postseason. However, Green Bay has been quietly kicking butt for a little over two months now.
Over their final eight regular season games, the Packers went 6-2, and the offense was putting up impressive numbers. During that stretch, Green Bay averaged 25.5 points per game, which continued into the postseason. It is only one game, but the Packers put up 7.7 yards per play and 48 points on one of the better defenses in the league.
Typically, a performance like that would not be sustainable, but we have almost half a season’s worth of evidence that this Packers offense is legit. While they do not run the ball all that effectively, the offensive line has been solid, and Green Bay ran for 4.5 yards per carry against the Cowboys.
However, banking on explosive offensive plays against San Francisco is exactly how your season ends. The 49ers rank fourth in offensive DVOA, and most of their starters were given two weeks of rest leading up to the postseason. San Francisco does not give up big-chunk plays, and their offense is predicated around the run, an area the Packers have struggled to defend.
Green Bay’s defense is not good, especially against the run. The defensive line does not have a high win rate, they are a horrendous tackling team, and they allow just under three rushing yards after first contact. If those trends continue, as we saw against Dallas, the 49ers will run the Packers right out of the playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers (12-5, 9-8 ATS)
Although the fear of rust is always in play for a team that has not played in two weeks, the 49ers are the Super Bowl favorites for a reason.
The defense ranks in the top five in scoring (17.5), points per play (0.287), yards per pass (5.9), and touchdowns per game (1.8). However, the oddsmakers expect this to be a high-scoring game, as the total sits around (). This is because the Packers offense ranks in the top 10 in DVOA, success rate, and EPA/play. Green Bay’s offense has been one of the more efficient in the NFL this season, and it showed against the Cowboys.
San Francisco’s defense is better than Dallas, but stopping Green Bay from moving the ball downfield is not a certainty. The real question in this game is if the Packers will get any stops on defense.
Green Bay’s defense ranks 27th in DVOA, 24th in yards per rush, 20th in yards per play, and 19th in yards per pass. Going up against the No. 1 ranked offense, according to DVOA, will be a tough ask for the Packers’ defense.
Both offenses are explosive, but the 49ers have the better all-around unit. The offensive line is arguably the best in the NFL, and San Francisco has more top-tier talent. After the Wild Card win, Jordan Love is skyrocketing up quarterback tier charts, but Brock Purdy has almost two years of quality experience.
Obviously, it helps when you have a skill room featuring Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. But Purdy is simply a better quarterback this season. While his turnover-worthy plays have increased, so has his average depth of target (8.6) and big-time throw rate.
There is no doubt San Francisco will be able to score and move the ball against this Packers defense. The question is: can they stop Green Bay’s offense?
Packers vs. 49ers Betting Trends
Green Bay Packers
- Green Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Green Bay’s last eight games.
- Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last six games against San Francisco.
San Francisco 49ers
- The total has gone OVER in five of San Francisco’s last seven games.
- San Francisco is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of San Francisco’s last 14 games against Green Bay.
Packers vs. 49ers Predictions: Recency Bias Gives San Francisco a Valuable Edge
There is no doubt anymore that this Packers offense can score on any defense. Dallas had one of the best units in the NFL, and Green Bay had dudes running free all game. However, that will not happen against this San Francisco unit.
First of all, the obvious game plan for Kyle Shanahan is to put the ball on the ground and keep Love on the sidelines. The Packers’ run defense is among the worst in the NFL, and San Francisco’s biggest strength is running the ball.
McCaffrey has the most explosive runs in the league. His dominance this season also opens up the play action, which Green Bay has also struggled to defend.
I have no doubts that the 49ers can score and cover the spread. Even though they opened at a 9.5-point favorite, which is a large number for a divisional-round matchup, when the 49ers win, they win by a lot. Each game they have won this season has been by more than 10 points, and that should continue in their first playoff game this season.
Packers vs. 49ers prediction: San Francisco ()
Best Packers vs. 49ers Prop Bet
If our Packers vs. 49ers betting pick does not interest you, there are plenty of NFL prop bets to look at. Each sportsbook will post passing, rushing, receiving, team, or game props for each playoff game.
The odds and lines for each Packers vs. 49ers prop bet will also differ based on your sportsbook of choice. Make sure you take a look at all legal sportsbooks in your state before officially placing your bets.
Here, we will go over our favorite Packers vs. 49ers prop bet.
Jordan Love Anytime Touchdown Scorer ()
While our Packers vs. 49ers predictions favor San Francisco to win by double digits, taking Love to cash an anytime TD scorer prop is worth a deep look. Love is not a great runner, but he has four rushing touchdowns this season, and they may need him if and when they reach the red zone.
Getting inside the 20 will be hard enough against San Francisco’s defense. Luckily, Green Bay should be able to hit some explosive plays, as they have pretty much every game in the second half of the season.
One area of weakness on the 49ers defense has been stopping the run in short-yard scenarios. San Francisco allows teams to convert on just over 75% of its short-yard run situations (plays with three or fewer yards to convert). This obviously includes quarterback sneaks.
I don’t envision Green Bay hitting 50-yard touchdowns often in this game, but they should rip off a few chunk plays. As long as they reach the red zone, Love is a threat to score, and at his current price, he is well worth a play.
Packers vs. 49ers Injury Report
How to Watch Packers vs. 49ers
Date: Saturday, Jan. 20, 2024
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium – Tampa, FL
Where to Watch: FOX