Packers vs. Bills Odds & Prediction: Aaron Rodgers a Double-Digit Underdog for First Time in Career

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The Green Bay Packers are scheduled to play the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football in Week 8 of the 2022 NFL season.

The Bills were listed as a 10.5-point choice last week, but Buffalo is a favorite ranging from 10.5-11.5 points on the betting boards at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and PointsBet now.

Let’s take a look at the latest Packers vs. Bills odds on Sunday Night Football as well as our prediction.

SNF Odds: Point Spread, Moneyline, Total

Here are Sunday Night Football odds from around the sports betting marketplace.

GB Packers vs BUF Bills Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Sun (10/30) @ 8:22pm ET

GB Packers at BUF Bills
Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

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Packers-Bills Point Spread Expands By More Than A Touchdown

When the original line for this matchup came out in the spring, the Bills were only a 4-point pick over the Packers, a team that was coming off a 13-4 season and was the top NFC seed in the postseason.

The spread has now expanded by more than a touchdown with the Packers 3-4 (2-5 against the spread) and on a three-game losing streak despite being a favorite each outing.

This will be the first time Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will be a double-digit underdog in a start since his sophomore year at Cal in 2003. His Bears not only covered the 13.5-point spread against eventual Associated Press national champion USC but won 34-31 in triple OT.

Considering Buffalo already has had two wins by 30-plus points this season, the point spread makes sense. No other team in the league has even one victory that lopsided.

Green Bay is facing a particularly cruel segment of its schedule. It’s tough enough that it will be facing the current Super Bowl favorite on the road (Bills are +290 at PointsBet), but Buffalo is coming off a bye. And two weeks from now, it will be much the same for Green Bay, which will play host to defending NFC East champion Dallas (5-2), which also will be coming off a week’s break.

Buffalo enters Week 8 with the NFL’s top-ranked offense and defense and in its last game was a 24-20 victor at Kansas City, gaining a bit of payback for its overtime playoff loss there in January.

WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have three receptions apiece of 40-plus yards from QB Josh Allen, which is tied for third most in the league. Also with three is WR Davante Adams, but he doesn’t play for the Packers anymore after his offseason departure to Las Vegas.

If the Bills stress the ground game, they’ll be going against a Packers unit that’s allowed an average of 159.3 yards rushing their past four games. Over the course of a full season, that would rank third worst in the league.

Unlike Allen, Rodgers hasn’t had much success with the long ball, having only two passes of 40-plus yards. Last week, the Packers ignored their ground game in a 23-21 loss at Washington, with only 38 yards rushing on 12 carries. That yardage total is their lowest in a game in the past nine years. They didn’t even make a third-down conversion in blowing a 14-3 lead.

FYI: Buffalo has the league’s best third-down success percentage.

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Packers vs. Bills SNF Prediction

Over the past several weeks, key Bills players who had missed time with injuries have returned, including DT Ed Oliver, safety Jordan Poyer, and TE Dawson Knox.

On the other hand, Green Bay could be in trouble along the offensive line. Star LT David Bakhtiari sat out the last game with a knee injury and is questionable, plus LG Elgton Jenkins also has a knee issue that makes his status for Sunday unclear. And then there’s Rodgers, who is listed on the injury report with a thumb injury. He’s joined by leading receiver Allen Lazard (questionable, shoulder) and LB Rashan Gary (questionable, concussion), who leads the team in sacks.

All this sounds like way too much for Green Bay to overcome.

Prediction: Bills 34, Packers 14

Also read: NFL Week 8 betting tips and strategies | NFL Week 8 betting picks and predictions | NFL Week 8 survivor picks

About the Author
Bob Christ

Bob Christ

Bob Christ, based in New Mexico, has been a gaming writer (primarily the NFL) for almost four decades, with his work appearing in publications/websites across North America. He's a big fan of the Arkansas Razorbacks, Philadelphia's Eagles and Phillies, and inexplicably the NHL's Winnipeg Jets.

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