Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Props: 4 Bests Bets for Chiefs’ Star QB

The stage is set for football’s biggest night. The Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 57 in Glendale, Ariz, with action kicking off Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Sportsbooks are offering a ton of betting markets for the big game. I dug into the Super Bowl prop betting market to find the best available props on Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

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Best Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Prop Bets

With hundreds of prop bets available at major sportsbooks, I picked out several related the Chiefs’ star quarterback.

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards, Over 18.5, -110, FanDuel

Here’s your hot take of the week: running is difficult when you have a sprained ankle. Kindly subscribe to my hot take service for $99.99/month to receive further brilliant insight.

It may seem counter-intuitive to target a Mahomes rushing prop when he’s nursing a sprained ankle, but grabbing this line early could snag us some decent closing line value. Mahomes rushed exactly once in the AFC Championship for a total of eight yards. That’s not a big sample size, but it showed he was healthy enough to scramble when he needed to.

Mahomes will be facing the No. 1 pass defense in the league in Super Bowl 57. He may not see a ton of designed runs, he’ll almost certainly be required to scramble against this Eagles defense. If he could run with a sprained ankle in the AFC Championship, two additional weeks of rest tells me he’ll be fine to do it again against the Eagles.

Mahomes had a stretch during the regular season where he torched this 18.5 yards total in eight of nine weeks. From Week 3 to Week 12, Mahomes averaged 33.75 rushing yards per game, nearly double this Super Bowl total at FanDuel.

With added rest, against a brutal pass defense, in the biggest game of the season, I trust we see a few classic Mahomes scrambles, and we clear this number easily.

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Patrick Mahomes, First Pass Incomplete, +175, DraftKings

Have I mentioned the Eagles have the No. 1 passing defense this year? You didn’t catch that? You should have subscribed to my $99.99 hot take service. You’d have caught that.

There are three clear paths to cashing this Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop at DraftKings.

Scenario 1. Nervous Chiefs receiver drops pass. 

It’s the Super Bowl. It’s a huge deal. Don’t tell me professional football players won’t get nervous. It happens.

Scenario 2. Eagles pass defense steps up

The Eagles No. 1 pass defense is good at defending passes, so they defend the first pass. Simple enough.

Scenario 3. Andy Reid takes a shot early

What sounds more like Andy Reid? Starting the game with a checkdown for two yards, or running a play-action scheme where Mahomes throws a deep bomb to start things off? And before you answer, remember Andy Reid was the guy who drew this up for the Chiefs offense.

Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, but +175 for an incomplete pass is too high. Gimme gimme gimme. Next.

Patrick Mahomes, Longest Completion, Over 37.5 Yards, -110 BetRivers

Mahomes has played 19 games this season and has cleared this longest pass completion total in 12 of them. That’s good for a 63% success rate on this Super Bowl prop. What’s equally encouraging, in the seven games where Mahomes didn’t clear this number? Four times he threw for at least 35 yards on a single pass, which means he’s going after it in every single game.

Be sure to grab this number at BetRivers, which is the only sportsbook offering Over 37.5 yards. Most other sportsbooks are hanging 38.5 out there, so grab this before the line moves.

Patrick Mahomes, Super Bowl Passer Rating, Over 99.5, -115 Caesars

One more way to back Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl is to target his Passer Rating Prop. Caesars has this market available and has set the line at 99.5 which feels a few points too low.

Mahomes is the front-runner for NFL MVP, and he’s done it by being the best passer this season. In his last two playoff games, Mahomes averaged a 108.3 passer rating. And across 17 regular season games? He averaged 105.2. Not to mention, he’s cleared this 99.5 mark in 12 of 19 games this season, including the last six straight games.

It’s a number worth a look.

Also read: Super Bowl MVP Odds | Super Bowl 2024 Futures

Before we get into my favorite Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop bets, here’s a look at the game lines.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Spread, Moneyline, Total

The Eagles sit as short favorites over the Chiefs in early betting for Super Bowl 57.  Here are current odds for Super Bowl 57 from the top legal sportsbooks.