Patriots Vs. Bills Betting Odds & Pick: Take New England To Knock Buffalo Out Of NFL Playoffs

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Patriots RB Damien Harris (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Saturday night’s primetime NFL playoff game pits the New England Patriots against the Buffalo Bills in chilly Orchard Park, N.Y. The temperature at kickoff is expected to be hovering around zero degrees with winds at 10 mph.

SuperBook USA opened with the Bills -4.5, but several sportsbooks including PointsBet and FanDuel were offering Buffalo -4 as of Monday morning.

NE Patriots vs BUF Bills Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Sat (1/15) @ 8:18pm ET

NE Patriots at BUF Bills
Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

BetMGM: Up to $1,000 risk-free bet

New England Patriots (10-7, 10-7 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (12-5, 9-6-2)

Time: 8:15 p.m. EST

DraftKings Line: Bills -4.5 (44.5)

The skinny: This is the only meeting between AFC division rivals in the first round, and only the second in their playoff history since these teams entered the AFL in 1960.

Facts: In Week 13, with the wind chill in the mid-20s and winds howling up to 40 mph, the Patriots were 14-10 winners at Buffalo by throwing only three times. The Pats had season highs with 46 rushes and 222 rushing yards. Buffalo even had a 17-yard advantage in average starting field position (40-23), the widest edge for a losing team this year.

In their second meeting three weeks later in much calmer conditions in Foxborough, Bills QB Josh Allen threw 47 times for 314 yards and three TDs and never got sacked in a 33-21 win. His counterpart, rookie Mac Jones, meanwhile, was 14-for-32 for 145 yards with two INTS. It was his worst game of the year.

Allen was Buffalo’s leading rusher in both games and that’s not usually a recipe for success. In games where a QB led his team in ground yards this season, NFL teams have a record of 14-40. Allen’s mark is 3-3.

Patriots RB Damien Harris had five 100-yard games this season, with two coming vs. Buffalo. He reportedly was limited in Tuesday’s drills with a hamstring injury, but that was the same last week and he dressed out and had 11 carries and four receptions.

Buffalo outgained the N.Y. Jets by 371 yards in a 27-10 home win last week to secure the third playoff seed. That matches the biggest yardage gap in the league this season.

Bet TypeSpreads
Open

Analysis: If history is a good indicator, this should be a low-scoring game based on the fact these two squads are the only ones in the league holding their foes to less than 18 points a game. Plus, it’s going to be cold, cold, cold.

New England, meanwhile, was a 33-24 loser in Miami last week, a score that surely has given bettors a reason to be wary of the Patriots. But they did hold the Dolphins to 4.5 yards a pass and were vicimized by two defensive scores, including a fumble recovery in the end zone on the final play.

Chances are that final margin resulted in a slightly higher spread for this game.

The gamble inside the gamble is that Harris and/or backfield cohort Rhamondre Stevenson will be able to handle another heavy work load.

Patriots at Bills Pick

Patriots 17, Bills 14

Last week: 5-8 ATS, 8-5 SU

Season total: 125-131 (.488) ATS, 159-99-1 (.617) SU

Also read: Super Bowl 2022 Odds At DraftKings, FanDuel | Wild-Card Odds: Betting Lines For Opening Weekend Of 2022 Playoffs | Raiders Vs. Bengals Betting Odds & Pick 

About the Author

Bob Christ

Bob Christ, based in New Mexico, has been a gaming writer (primarily the NFL) for almost four decades, with his work appearing in publications/websites across North America. He's a big fan of the Arkansas Razorbacks, Philadelphia's Eagles and Phillies, and inexplicably the NHL's Winnipeg Jets.

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