The best weekend of the NFL season is here, and player props are live for the Patriots vs. Bills trilogy match on Wild Card Weekend. The season series is tied at one game apiece, with the Bills taking the second meeting convincingly. It will be interesting to see if Bill Belichick can devise a scheme to stop Josh Allen, since New England was unsuccessful doing so last time.
Buffalo is a 4.5-point favorite, per betting market consensus odds on Friday, but the line has been as tight as -4 in early betting on a game expected to be played in sub-freezing temperatures.
Coming into the season, the Bills had Super Bowl-or-bust aspirations. They are playing their best football of the season with five straight wins to lock up the AFC East title. They are more talented than the Patriots, so expect Buffalo to pull out all the stops and take the victory.
Followers of my weekly articles enjoyed over 13 units of profitably this regular season between player props and anytime touchdown scorer bets. We hope to continue this trend into the playoffs.
As always, follow the advice of Furio from The Sopranos …. “Bet with your head, not over it”
Best Touchdown Scorer Bets: Pats vs. Bills
Damien Harris Anytime Touchdown Scorer +130 (PointsBet)
A darling of ours here at Gaming Today, Damien Harris has scored in five straight games, totalling eight touchdowns in that span. He is the go-to option in the red zone, as the Patriots love to run it inside the 10-yard line. Harris scored all three touchdowns for New England in its 33-21 loss to Buffalo in December, so getting this at plus-money almost feels too good.
Nelson Agholor Anytime TD Scorer +450 (DraftKings)
Nelson Agholor missed the last game against the Bills, one reason the Patriots offense struggled so badly. We know he will get some targets. This TD scorer prop bet should be around +300, which is where other sportsbooks have it priced. At +450, we are in the backup tight end or No. 4 receiver territory, which Agholor is not. This is worth a small stab at this price. Anything lower than +350 is a pass.
Player Prop Bets For Patriots vs. Bills
Josh Allen Over 33.5 Pass Attempts -115 (BetMGM) | Over 7.5 Rush Attempts -140 (DraftKings)
Superstar, do-it-all quarterback Josh Allen is everything for the Buffalo Bills. He was dominant in December’s win in Foxborough. Allen should run the ball consistently Saturday night, as he showcased in the second matchup between these two teams, when he ran the ball 47 times and threw it 14.
Nelson Agholor Over 2.5 Receptions +125 (DraftKings)
Color me crazy for believing in the former Eagles and Raiders receiver, but he is likely the Pats’ second-best pass-catcher. Before you play a Same Game Parlay of the two Agholor props I offer here, however, know that DraftKings’ +550 odds are not in your favor.
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 41.5 Rushing Yards -114 (FanDuel)
Backup running back Rhamondre Stevenson had only four carries for 31 yards last week against the Dolphins. Stevenson could takeover this backfield one day, but in games that are close, Harris takes over more often than not. Stevenson could spell him for a few carries, but six carries at a 6 YPC (well above his 4.6 average) is still ‘under’ 41.5 rushing yards.
Devin Singletary Over 59.5 Rushing Yards -114 (FanDuel)
One reason for the Bills’ turnaround is their change at running back. Devin Singletary has become the workhorse back in Buffalo, with a whopping 71% snap share of the past five games. He has surpassed this number in three out of his last four games. Expect Singletary again to get a big share of the work.