Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
Over/Under: 8.5
First pitch: 10:10 a.m. PT
TV: MLB Network
Probable pitchers: Jon Gray (2-3, 3.65 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (1-0, 7.13 ERA)
Whenever two National League strikeout artists get together in a day-game-following-a-night-game scenario, it should always be noted. This particular series finale of a four-game set between the Rockies and Brewers fits that bill.
While it can sometimes be a daunting task trusting a pitcher in his first start back off the DL — err, IL — I don’t think that will be an issue for Peralta, who struck out seven in a rehab start last weekend while walking only one. He exhibited encouragement that not only is he back or close to full health, but it looks like he has his command going as well.
Peralta is a high-ceiling starter that has the potential to be a solidified upper-rotation guy for years, and he certainly looks that part when he’s locating his pitches. He’s apparently had no issues with that whenever he takes on the Rockies.
Though the 22-year-old is only in his second season, he’s faced today’a opponent twice before and actually come through with exceptional performances both times.
In all, Peralta has worked 11.2 innings against Colorado, limiting their hard-hitting offense to just two runs on three hits. He also logged a whopping 21 K’s compared to only four walks.
The potential is there for Peralta to come through once again with another shutdown outing, as is the case for his counterpart, Gray.
Despite coming off a disappointing 2018, the former third overall draft pick is out to a nice start this season in providing steady work. Prior to his last start, he had pitched the Rockies into the seventh inning or deeper in all five of his assignments.
While walks can still be an issue for Gray, he’s at least holding opponents to a .240 batting average, which would be a career-best if it holds up there.
Gray isn’t averaging a strikeout per inning like we’ve grown accustomed to. But he’s close, and a date with the Brewers could be an instant fix to that. No team in the league has struck out more than Milwaukee, and it should only help that last year’s NL MVP Christian Yelich (back) is out of the lineup.
With the over/under where it’s at, it may only take one dominant showing from either of these two starters — who both have that potential — to get the job done for this bet. Play: UNDER 8.5 (-115)
Yesterday’s Result: Astros-Twins Over 8 (loss)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 17-16-1, -1 unit
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
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