Well, here we are again, right back in Texas.
Two weeks ago we were here for the AT&T Byron Nelson in McKinney. After last week’s PGA Championship which was held a little north in Tulsa, Oklahoma, it’s back to Texas for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth.
And with the move back into the Lone Star state (a big misnomer because there are plenty of stars this week and not just a lone star), we have a stellar field teeing it up this week.
That’s the good news as five of the top 10 players in the world are signed up.
The bad news is for many of the guys who played last week at the PGA Championship (except the winner, Justin Thomas), it’s a letdown after the season’s second major. The letdown part is they now must refocus on playing a non-major and come into the event with some sort of enthusiasm.
There is also a good news/bad news aspect of the Charles Schwab Challenge. Two of the world’s best players in the field this week weren’t factors last week as Collin Morikawa barely made the cut and finished way down the list while Scottie Scheffler missed the cut.
They are the top two ranked players in the field this week but we’re going to stay away from them for the simple reason both of them will need to rebound from a poor outing in one of the brightest spotlights–a major.
Now we may be wrong in that assessment (OK, you can stop laughing now…we know we’ve missed here and there in our picks) and either one could win. And that’s especially true with Scheffler being back in his home state but we like a couple of other players better.
With a breather between last week’s PGA Championship and next month’s U.S. Open, let’s check out a couple of solid bets to win this week as a field of 123 players take aim at the title at Colonial Country Club.
Odds To Win The Charles Schwab Challenge (DraftKings)
Justin Thomas +800
Scottie Scheffler +1000
Jordan Spieth +1200
Collin Morikawa +1200
Will Zalatoris +2000
Viktor Hovland +2000
Max Homa +2500
Kevin Na +3500
Jason Kokrak +3500
Talor Gooch +3500
As always, shop around the sports betting industry for the best odds on your plays.
You’ve Got To Stay With The Hot Hand
Coming into any tournament, looking at the previous week’s winner is usually high on the priority list.
That would be Thomas. Now, is he in the field this week? Yes.
That’s the only question we need answered to make him an obvious top pick to check out. Right now, Thomas is playing well enough to take down any field in golf.
He just proved that last week by rallying from seven strokes behind starting the final round and winning the title in a playoff.
At +800 this week, he’s the betting favorite so it’s a decent–but not great–payout. That being said, betting against Thomas when he’s this hot is not a good idea.
Thomas is ranked No. 5 in the world (good, but certainly not where he wants to be) and ranked No. 4 in the FedEx Cup rankings (again, good and up from the previous week…but not where he wants to be).
The solution? Picking up victories like last week. Add in that he has four top-10s in his last six tournaments and it shows he’s getting in the hunt more times than not.
And in golf, like every other sport, riding the hot player is never a bad move. It may not be great money to bet on Thomas, but if he wins it’s going to be money in bettors’ pockets who backed him.
Go To The Bottom Of The List: The Z’s
That would be Will Zalatoris at +2000 this week. The simple fact is he’s getting closer and closer to that first PGA Tour win.
He’s now got two runnerup finishes in majors which shows he can handle the pressure–up to a point. This past weekend he had a couple of errant drives and shaky putts that likely cost him not only that first win on the Tour but that win being his first major.
He will keep learning. And when he gets that first win, like fellow pro Scottie Scheffler, the dam may bust wide open and there is likely to be a couple more Zalatoris victories before this season winds down.
He’s climbing up the FedEx Cup rankings (13th) and the world rankings (14th…up from 30th) so he’s leaving no doubt he’s going to be a talking point week-in and week-out.
And with those moves up the rankings come greater expectations. Zalatoris has them and he’s living up to them. He said as much in his post-round interview when he said he was getting closer to that first win. You’ve got to love that hungry–and positive–attitude.
His results speak for themselves. With the exception of one blip on the radar (a missed cut at the Byron Nelson), he’s been on the first page of the leaderboard for the last five events.
Those finishes include a T-5 (WGC Match Play), a T-6 (the Masters), a T-4 (the Zurich Classic) and that solo second last week at the PGA Championship.
He’s close…and getting closer. Watch out.
Prop Bets To Consider
Like we always say, picking a winner in these events is quite the challenge. But there’s always the bet of a player to finish in the top 10.
This week we like Abraham Ancer at +350 to be in the top 10. His weekend play in 2021 of this event, rounds of 67 and 67, saw him climb up to a T-14 finish after his first two rounds where he struggled to make the cut.
After last week’s T-9 at the PGA Championship, a top-10 this week looks to be a good bet with some of the big names choosing to take the week off.
And to move down the betting list one notch, how about a player to finish in the top 20 at solid odds. Stewart Cink, who was T-23 last week at the PGA Championship, has two top-10s in his last five starts.
At +350 to finish in the top 20, that gives him 10 more spots and that could be enough to cash this ticket.
Also read: US Open Betting Guide