Starting this week, we’re going to shake things up a little going forward when it comes to our Gaming Today golf picks. While we’re still going to hunt for a couple of players who could win the weekly tournament, we’re also going to dive a little deeper.
We are going to look up and down the list of prop bets, head-to-head matchups, finishing spots and other betting possibilities. After all, picking a winning golfer out of a field of 144 players is always quite the challenge.
But we are still going to give it our best shot, as well as giving you a few other options to check out.
This week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational (API) marks the second of four straight weeks the PGA Tour will tee it up in Florida. And, to add to the fun and games, there’s also an off-field event set this week as well–the Puerto Rico Open–which we cover in a different story.
The API event is being held at the Bay Hill Championship Course. This is the second week where world-class golfers and designers are in the spotlight–Jack Nicklaus at last week’s event and Arnold Palmer this week.
Odds To Win The Arnold Palmer Invitational (DraftKings)
Jon Rahm +750
Rory McIlroy +1000
Scottie Scheffler +1600
Viktor Hovland +1800
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2000
Sungjae Im +2200
Tyrrell Hatton +2800
Marc Leishman +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
As always, shop around the betting market for the best odds for your plays.
This Week’s Field Is Packed With Talent
For an event like this one, many of the stars (or at least the top-ranked players) are teeing it up. In fact, 32 of the world’s top 50 are here.
With that in mind, let’s start by eliminating two of the big names struggling with their games coming into this event.
Bryson DeChambeau, the defending champion, withdrew early this week so he won’t be in the mix.
The oddsmakers weren’t sure of his health and or his game as he was all the way down to +2800 to win this week before he withdrew. Lingering hip and hand injuries would have made backing him questionable anyway, but his WD answers those questions.
Rickie Fowler has been fighting with his game recently. He starts off an event solid but then his swing and putting have teamed up to let him down. He started the 2022 portion of the season with three straight missed cuts before finishing T-55 and T-42 in his last two starts. It’s a start, but right now he’s not on our radar at all.
At +15000, Fowler’s one of those longer shots we would normally take a look at but with his recent form, or lack thereof, we’re going to stay away.
On To Picking Out A Winner
This one’s pretty easy. Any time Rory McIlroy, +1000 on DraftKings, +1200 at Caesars Sportsbook, and +1300 on FanDuel this week, is in the field he’s got to be on bettors’ radar. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.
Sure, it doesn’t always pay off, but he is in the hunt more often than not. Give him a little momentum–as he has right now—and he’s dangerous. He’s making just his fourth start in the 2021-2022 season, so he’s had plenty of time to make sure his game is in top form.
And it is. His three starts include a win at the CJ Cup in Vegas last fall along with an 18th-place finish at the Hero World Challenge and a T-10 at the Genesis Invitational.
That’s pretty solid play, but it gets even better.
Over the last five years at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, his worst finish is T-10. He’s also got a win here in 2018 to bring back a flood of memories.
His track record here is solid and he’s off to a good start for this season. That’s a great combination to bet on.
Two Others To Keep An Eye On
Scottie Scheffler (+1600) and Adam Scott (+3500) are coming into this week’s event trending in the right direction.
Scheffler is red-hot with a win (the WM Phoenix Open), two seconds (the Houston Open and the Hero World Challenge) and four other top-25s in this wraparound season. He was T-15 in this event two years ago but wasn’t in the field last year.
As for Scott, he’s coming into this event after a T-4 at the Genesis Invitational following a couple of mid-30 finishes in his previous events.
Both are playing solid golf and might just be worth a couple of bucks. But, like we said at the top, if you’re not comfortable picking a tournament winner, we’ve got options for you.
Best PGA Tour Prop Bets This Week
It’s not always about winning and losing (shhh, don’t tell the bosses we actually wrote that). Sometimes it can be about just being close, as in can your favorite golfer finish in the top-5, top-10, or top-20?
Yes, those bets are available and they are popular among golf bettors. This way you can pick a player to have a great week even though he may not win the tournament.
One of this week’s best bets is Gary Woodland to get a top-20 finish. He’s +230 and we like the value. Woodland is coming in off a T-5 at last week’s Honda Classic.
Best PGA Tour Matchup Bet This Week
That’s right, we’ve got a trio of players going head-to-head-to-head in what is known in the industry as 3-Ball.
In this matchup, it’s Billy Horschel (+165), Sam Burns (+165) and Seamus Power (+190) in the grouping. Pick the winner in this group and you cash your ticket.
We like Horschel for one simple reason: He’s had top-20 finishes in his last three events while Power is coming in off back-to-back missed cuts and Burns has three MC’s in a row.
It’s not a big money-maker but these matchups rarely are. But we love this one because Horschel always seems to be around on the weekend.
One More Prop Bet To Consider
Sometimes, way down the list–even with prop bets–is a good place to look. We’re going to bet the tournament winner won’t be in the last pairing on Sunday at +170. It just happened last weekend at The Honda Classic where Sepp Straka came from off the pace to win for the first time.
Also read: Masters Odds 2022