Tour Championship Odds & Predictions: Win Bets, Prop Picks for PGA Tour Finale

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It’s time to open the PGA Tour’s vault doors and hand out the big money.

This week’s Tour Championship, being held at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, will feature the top 30 in the final FedEx Cup point standings battling it out for the top prize: $18 million. It’s been a year-long battle, and now these 30 guys will reap the rewards. It’s just a matter of how big each player’s payout will be.

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While the winner will receive $18 million, just by making it to the finale, the player who finishes 30th this week is guaranteed a $500,000 payday. For this event, we’re changing up the format, and that’s been quite the controversial FedEx Cup move.

The points leader for the season, Scottie Scheffler, will start this week’s event at 10-under-par. Last week’s winner, Viktor Hovland, will start in the second spot at -8.

The points drop off all the way down to even-par, where the final five players in this week’s event (Sam Burns, Emiliano Grillo, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, and Sepp Straka) will start.

Why they started this format is anyone’s guess. Why it’s still being used is mind-boggling to many. But, that’s what the players are working with this week.

We’ll try to play a numbers game and come up with a winning possibility along with a prop bet or two. But for now, it’s Scheffler leading the way. Catch him if you can.

Here are our Tour Championship odds and predictions.

Odds to Win Tour Championship

PlayerBetMGM
Scottie Scheffler+140
Rory McIlroy+350
Viktor Hovland+450
Jon Rahm+800
Patrick Cantlay+2000
Max Homa+2800
Lucas Glover+3300
Xander Schauffele+3300
Matt Fitzpatrick+4000
Brian Harman+5000
Wyndham Clark+5000
Tommy Fleetwood+6600
Rickie Fowler+8000
Russell Henley+8000
Collin Morikawa+12500
Keegan Bradley+12500
Sungjae Im+12500

We list odds from BetMGM, but shop around at other top-rated sportsbooks to find the best prices on your plays.  

This Week’s Format Adds Intrigue to Finale

Going into most tournaments, checking out players’ recent finishes plus their success in the tournament at hand is usually a good barometer to gauge possible outcomes.

But with this week’s format of players starting anywhere from 10-under-par to even-par, it adds another wrinkle into the already-tough equation.

Beating Scheffler straight-up over a four-day tournament has proven to be a good idea over the last two years as he has picked up six victories. Give him a couple of shots this week — or in some cases 10 shots — and that’s going to be quite the daunting task.

This is the second straight year Scheffler has come into this event as the leader and teed it up at -10 to start the tournament. Last year, Rory McIlroy ran him down and won by a stroke for his third FedEx Cup title.

A final-round three-over-par round saw Scheffler wind up T-2 with Sungjae Im. Will Scheffler win his first FedEx title or could McIlroy be the first four-time champion?

Or, as we’re about to reveal, will someone else sneak in and steal the spotlight?

Let’s see if we can narrow down bettors’ options.

We’re Still Riding with Scheffler

No, we’re not going to bet Scottie Scheffler this week for the simple reason he’s coming in at a paltry +140. But we’ve still got him at +480 from the playoff opening odds, and we’re going to ride with those odds this week.

He’s coming off a T-2 last week at the BMW, and just always seems to be in the hunt. Starting off with a lead this week–and knowing what happened in 2022–we’re liking the +480 bet we got earlier as he’s got a lot to prove.

But that means we’ve got to try to come up with someone who can come off the pace–and who has good odds–who is playing well enough to win. We still think Scheffler is going to bounce back from last year’s final round collapse and pick up the victory and the huge paycheck, but we’re going to hedge our bet just to have a little more skin in the game.

Check Out Max Homa at Great Odds

With a Scheffler ticket already in our pocket (OK, in our account), we’re only going to add one pick to this week’s event.

Max Homa, coming off a T-5 in last week’s BMW Championship, is a healthy +2800 to claim the FedEx crown. He’s starting the first round at four-under-par, six strokes behind Scheffler’s -10.

Tour Championship Odds & Predictions
Max Homa watches his tee shot on the first hole during the third round of last week’s BMW Championship. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

But, and here’s the good news, McIlroy started last year at…drumroll, please…four-under-par. McIlroy went on to take down Scheffler to win the title for the third time.

We’re thinking it’s an ideal spot for Homa, as he will be under the radar as usual and can freewheel it all week. Homa wound up T-5 in last year’s Tour Championship despite a first-round 71. He finished four shots back of McIlroy despite starting the tournament at just two-under-par.

Oh, and after that first-round 71, Homa rattled off rounds of 62, 66, and 66 to put himself in the picture. We’re thinking at +2800 the value is there to take a flier.

Around the Prop Scene

With every cutdown in players taking part in the FedEx Cup playoffs, from 70 to 50 and now to 30 this week, the odds on there being a hole-in-one go up.

This week the number is +550 at BetMGM, and with the world’s top 30 players (at least according to the points ranking), we’re still going to say there will be an ace.

After all, with this much money on the line, these guys are going to go flag-hunting early and often.

Another prop bet we like this week is at FanDuel. We’re going to check out Viktor Hovland to lead after the first round at +360. Scheffler, who will start with a two-stroke lead over Hovland, is a heavy favorite in this bet at -165.

We’re banking on Hovland, who is coming off a course-record 61 in the BMW finale where he overtook Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick to win, to stay hot at least for the first round.

Hovland birdied seven of his final nine holes to come from off-the-pace to win last week and move into the second slot this week. We’re betting he stays hot to start the wraparound season finale.

About the Author
Bill Bowman

Bill Bowman

Writer
Bill Bowman is a Las Vegas-based writer who has more than 45 years of experience in the sports-writing industry. He's spent the past 20-plus years covering the golf scene, including 10 years as a writer and editor with VegasGolfer Magazine. Bowman also contributes to the GolfNow Network of websites and Las Vegas Golf Insider.

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