PGA Charles Schwab Challenge Odds & Predictions: Two Win Bets, Prop Plays

Before we get to PGA Charles Schwab Challenge odds and predictions, this is one of those weeks that causes quite the dilemma for many players.

One, the Tour is coming off the second major of the season (congratulations, Brooks Koepka for winning the PGA Championship).

US Open Golf Odds 2023: Scheffler, Rahm Pre-Tourney Favorites

Two, the Tour will have another “designated” event with a $20 million purse next week when the Memorial Tournament is on tap.

That leaves this week’s tournament as another one of those events that will see many big names taking the week off. But for those on hand, welcome to the 2023 edition of the Charles Schwab Challenge being held at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.

This tournament has a purse of $8.7 million with just 11 of the top 30 players in the world rankings teeing it up.

That’s the bad news, although a first-place check of $1.56 million is tough to call bad news. The good news is that lack of star power allows those still trying to find their way on the PGA Tour (or the Korn Ferry Tour) the chance to tee it up and make a splash.

While it’s not a glamorous event by money standards, the list of champions is still impressive. That includes last year’s winner Sam Burns, who beat Scottie Scheffler in a playoff. Yes, Scheffler actually lost a tournament.

While Burns and Scheffler are both in the field, we’re going to look at two other players to get in the winner’s circle this week.

Odds to Win Charles Schwab Challenge

We list odds from DraftKings, but shop around at other top-rated sportsbooks to find the best prices on your plays.  

We’re Not Backing Scottie Scheffler This Week

Now before you tell us we’ve gone off the deep end (again), we have a little method to our madness.

Scheffler comes in as the favorite this week at a paltry +450. But, he had a knock-down, drag-out battle last week in the PGA Championship and finished T-2.

On a course like Oak Hill, just playing four rounds is quite the battle. Playing four rounds while you’re in contention and battling the field, the course and the weather, ramps up the challenge.

Add in the fact he will likely be teeing it up next week in the “designated” Memorial, and that’s a whole lot of golf in a three-week stretch.

Something’s got to give.

This week’s tournament is going to be an ideal spot for him to tweak anything he may feel he needs to work on as he winds down after the PGA Championship and preps for the Memorial.

We won’t call it a letdown spot (after all, it’s in Texas and a home game) but out of the three tournaments in that stretch, it’s got the least impact when it comes to prestige and money for Scheffler, who is back to No. 1 in the world rankings.

Yes, he could certainly go out and win, but we’re betting that this is a week where he has future events on his mind.

Watch Out for Tony Finau

Tony Finau wasn’t up to par last week at the PGA Championship (T-72), but we’re giving him the benefit of the doubt that he just couldn’t rally back after a poor opening round. At +1400, it’s a solid number.

Especially since the last time he had a bad outing, back in late 2022 when he missed the cut in the World Wide Technology tournament, he rebounded the next week with a victory in the Houston Open.

He’s enough under the radar to give us a good price, and he’s playing well enough (last week being an outlier in our view) to bounce back.

Finau was also T-4 in this event a year ago. He’s coming into this week with an above-average 2022-2023 season underway.

Finau’s made 13-of-14 cuts with two wins and four top-10s in his back pocket. He’s also earned more than $5.3 million this season alone.

At 12th in the world rankings and fourth in the FedEx Cup race, his play right now shouldn’t surprise anyone. Neither should another victory if that happens this week.

It’s Viktor Hovland Time Again

We’re going to jump back on the Viktor Hovland bandwagon this week for one good reason: Style.

At +1400, we’re getting good value. Hovland, who wound up T-2 last week at the PGA Championship, got more flak for the clothing choices his sponsors picked out than praise for his impressive golf play.

His outfits were certainly bright and not everyone could pull off wearing them (go ahead and Google them). He laughed it off and said, simply: “They script me with this stuff, and they pay me money to do so, so I just show up and wear what they want me to wear.”

It might be noteworthy that while Hovland was panned on a lot of social media sites, the outfits he wore at the Masters wound up selling out.

Cha-ching. Now, back to the golf at hand.

To put it simply, Hovland has six-top 10s in the 14 events he’s played this season. Yet, he doesn’t have a win.

We think that changes this week.

Around the Prop Scene

We’re going to go with a guy who is still flying under the radar despite a victory in 2023. We like Kurt Kitayama to finish in the top 20 at +240.

He picked up his first PGA Tour win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March and has been hot-and-cold in his play since that victory.

Kitayama’s got two top-fives since his victory including last week at the star-filled PGA Championship and climbed the ladder with a final-round 65.

On the negative front, he does have four missed cuts in that run since his victory, but we’re looking at the positives he’s going to be bringing to the course this week.

The next bet is tricky.

We’re going out on a limb this week, and we’re looking at the winning margin being one stroke. That bet comes in at +250.

Over the last five events, no one has won by one stroke. There’s been two playoffs (including last year), a two-stroke winner, a three-stroke winner, and a four-stroke winner.

There was a time when there was a one-stroke winner in three straight years, so we’re going to take this bet thinking it might be time to have a squeaker at the end.

But if you’re looking for a little bit more money and like the chance of a playoff, that number comes in at +300. Two of the last three tournaments have seen a playoff.