The PGA Tour stays in sunny, warm(ish) SoCal this week, moving down the coast 120 or so miles to San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open.
This week’s tournament has plenty of similarities to last week’s event, the American Express, with a couple of tweaks thrown in for good measure.
First, we’re down from three golf courses to two courses at Torrey Pines–the North Course and the South Course. While the courses are situated side-by-side, there is a world of difference between the two. Bettors need to factor this in before stepping to the window (or going on your favorite betting app).
More on that in a moment.
Second, we’re still going to have amateurs playing alongside the pros. Amateurs will also be in the field on Sunday, which is going to force some of the pros to focus just a little bit more. They will try to help their amateur player to his or her best finish, as well as managing their own game.
It’s no easy task when you’re playing for millions of dollars and FedEx Cup points. And, most importantly for bettors, the event will be held Wednesday through Saturday to avoid the NFL playoff games on Sunday. Make sure to get your bets in early.
Amateurs aside, we need to take a look at which players are hot coming into this event–both in the current season as well as in past Farmers Insurance Opens.
Figure out where those two worlds intersect, and we’ll see if we can come up with a winner as well as a prop bet that will pay off. For the second straight week, we have five of the world’s top-10 players in the field, and Jon Rahm is again a huge favorite.
Will he stay hot? Let’s find out.
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Odds to Win Farmers Insurance Open
|Si Woo Kim||+3500|
As always, shop around the sports betting industry for the best odds on your plays.
Back to the Golf Courses
Bettors need to check out the tee time and which course their favorite player will be teeing it up on in the first and second rounds, especially if you’re betting early-round action.
Players will tee it up once on each course during the first two rounds before everyone plays the final two rounds on the tougher South Course for the finale.
How tough? Well, try an average of two strokes tougher going from the easier North Course to the South Course. Now that’s just an average, and your pro can certainly beat those numbers if he gets hot, but it’s something to put in the back of your mind before stepping up to the window.
If your player tees it up early on the North Course, that’s a good thing as he will likely have calmer conditions as opposed to later in the day when winds tend to get brisker. All of that can become irrelevant if there is no wind, but it’s still good to have any and all information before making any wagers.
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Expert Analysis: Ride the Hot Hand with Rahm
Backing Jon Rahm? You bet.
Rahm, the favorite again this week at +400 (which quickly moved down from a starting point of +450), is making a move to get back to No. 1 in the world, and this tournament fits right into his ascent. For the record, he is now No. 1 in the FedEx Cup points race, but only No. 3 in the world rankings.
Rahm won this tournament in 2017, and while that may seem like a long time ago, he also won last year’s U.S. Open here. He’s coming off an impressive victory at the American Express, and also won the Tournament of Champions.
We said last week that he had never won back-to-back tournament starts, but we certainly thought he had it in him. Now we’re looking at the possibility of three in a row.
When you’re hot, you’re hot. Focusing on Rahm when you’re betting–whether it’s to win or in a prop bet or two–certainly will give you a solid chance to cash come late Saturday.
Rahm’s hitting on all cylinders right now, and with the success he’s had at this venue, look out.
The Hometown Edge
We’re going to tentatively step back on Xander Schauffele‘s bandwagon. At +1100 (down quickly from +1200) and the second choice this week, he’s a solid value if his back keeps holding up.
He withdrew from the year’s first event, the Tournament of Champions, with back issues. Schauffele took the following week off, and then came back on the scene to wind up T-3 at last week’s American Express.
That included a final-round 62 that saw him record an albatross along with a string of five straight birdies that helped him soar up the leaderboard. That’s a great step up for someone who was just scraping it around in the early going at Kapalua. He was dealing with back pain, and it forced him to withdraw from the tournament.
Now it appears he’s back. No pun intended.
Add in the fact he has played in this area as many times as anyone else in the field (he went to San Diego State). Although Schauffele now calls Vegas home, he’s still got a lot of good memories from this area and event.
He was only T-34 here last year, but was T-2 two years ago, so there are plenty of positive vibes.
Around the Prop Scene
We’re just going with a single prop bet this week, but it’s one bettors may want to think about each and every week this guy tees it up.
We’re looking at Taylor Montgomery to post a top-five finish at +500. We had him as one of our picks to win last week at +3500, but a splashed tee shot at the 71st hole cost him a double bogey and a shot at winning. He wound up solo fifth.
Disappointing, but still impressive. Since securing his PGA Tour card, Montgomery’s had nine starts with eight top-15 finishes. He’s been close, and we wouldn’t be surprised if he went ahead and picked up that win this week at +2500.