OK, everyone, let’s calm down and take a deep breath.
As the PGA Tour heads back to California for the West Coast swing finale, the talk of the golf world this past week has come down to three words, and they are words we’ve heard before:
Tiger is back.
We all know that Tiger Woods is the host of this week’s Genesis Invitational at L.A.’s Riviera Country Club. But the news that has the golf world ramped up is he’s also teeing it up in the tournament.
For golf bettors, it’s going to mean a ton of bet possibilities that include the likes of: Will he win? Will he make the cut? Will he finish in the top 20?
You get the picture. It’s going to be all Tiger, all the time this week.
In 2022, it was Joaquin Niemann who posted back-to-back rounds of 63 in rounds one and two en route to a two-stroke victory over Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young.
This year will be different for two main reasons. One, Niemann won’t be on hand to defend his title as he’s playing on the LIV Tour. Two, all eyes will be on Woods as he takes aim at playing a four-round tournament for the first time since, well, a long, long time ago.
The last time Woods played four competitive rounds (not counting missed cuts or WD’s), was last year’s Masters. Sure, he made the cut, but had weekend rounds of 78 and 78 to finish 47th.
Woods followed that up with a WD in the PGA Championship and a missed cut in the Open Championship.
Since then, he’s played in a couple of silly season events where he could ride in a cart. And, as the rounds wound down, he struggled to walk the short distances between the cart and the green to putt.
It’s going to be interesting to see what happens. No one, not even Woods, knows what to expect. The last time Woods played in this event he closed out with a final-round 78 before handing the trophy over to the champ Max Homa. That was two years ago.
Two days after that trophy presentation, he was in a life-
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Odds to Win Genesis Invitational
As always, shop around the sports betting industry for the best odds on your plays.
It’s Very Risky to Back Tiger Woods
Here’s the stark news: Woods is +11000 to win this week. That’s an astronomical number for a player who was ranked No. 1 in the world year after year.
But, that was then and this is now. Right now, he’s ranked all the way down to No. 1,294 in the world. After that car wreck (and, actually, well before that), Woods’ game was not the same. Not by a longshot.
The numbers just keep getting worse. In the 2022-2023 wraparound season when he came back it wasn’t a pretty sight. He had three starts and had one round in the 60s, a 69 in the second round of the PGA Championship. He followed that up with a 78 before withdrawing.
In those three events he had nine rounds. Other than the 69, there was a 71 in the Masters and the other seven scores were 74 or higher. Only one event, The Masters, did he play all four rounds.
If you’re a fan of Woods, you’ll be very happy to see him in action, but beware if you’re going to back him.
Even in the prop bets (and there will be a ton of them at the wide variety of gaming sites), Woods’ odds are way, way too low. For him to finish in the top-20, he’s +360. That puts him on par with players like Tom Hoge, Adam Hadwin, and a few others who are having solid seasons.
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Genesis Expert Analysis: Bet One of the Hottest Golfers
While we will be crowning a new champion with Niemann out of the picture, is there a chance we will be crowning a player who has won here before? We’re betting that answer is yes.
No, it’s not one of the big boys, even though they are in the field. And it’s quite the field as all of the top-10 players in the world rankings will be here and 16 of the top 20.
We’re going to go with Max Homa this week at +2000. Homa, who wound up T-10 here last year, won the title two years ago. He’s got one of those years going many players can only dream about. He’s played in six events with a pair of victories–the season-opening Fortinet Championship and the Farmers Insurance Open at the end of January.
Add the fact he’s been in the top-25 in five of those six tournaments this year, and there’s no reason to think he’s going to slow down anytime soon.
Betting on a Live Longshot
While the spotlight is going to be shining as brightly on Woods as it has in a long time, it will be a great opportunity for those players down the list to come from nowhere and pick up the win.
More golfers trying to make a comeback, if you will. We like that scenario for Jason Day at +3500. He’s another one working hard to get his game back in shape after having fallen off the radar. His three events since we turned to 2023 have been a T-18, a T-7, and a solo fifth last week at the WM Phoenix Open.
Day is getting closer.
Around the Prop Scene
With a high-profile field this week, it’s setting up to possibly be quite the shootout on Sunday.
We like the odds of +175 that the winner won’t be in the final group on Sunday. It’s one of those instances where it could be someone coming from a few shots off the pace who puts up a great number that has everyone pressing to catch up as the shots wind down.
To pile on a little more on the strength of the field, we like the chance of there being a playoff at +300. If you’re really feeling the playoff vibe, a three-person playoff bet can be had for +1100.