RBC Canadian Open Odds & Predictions: Bet McIlroy in Major Prelude

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Despite a tough spot on the PGA Tour schedule, RBC Canadian Open odds reveal a solid field for this week’s tournament.

Last week’s “designated” event with a $20 million purse and next week’s third major, the U.S. Open, hasn’t dampened the enthusiasm as 10 of the top 30 players in the world rankings will make their way to Oakdale Golf and Country Club in Toronto.

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That includes the two-time defending champion, Rory McIlroy. McIlroy won last year’s event as well as in 2019. The tournament was cancelled in 2020 and 2021.

In all, there are six former champions of this event teeing it up as well as eight winners in this wraparound season.

That shows there’s a lot of talent on hand as the field of 144 will see who can knock McIlroy off the top spot.

Oh, and if you’re planning on attending the tournament, make sure to check out the concerts that will be held on site: Friday will feature the Black Eyed Peas and Saturday will see Alanis Morisette taking the stage.

But, we’re here to talk about the golf and who can win Canada’s national championship tournament that is being played for the 112th time.

Major Reads: US Open Golf Odds 2023: Scheffler, Rahm Pre-Tourney Favorites | Open Championship Odds 2023

Odds to Win RBC Canadian Open

Rory McIlroy+450
Tyrrell Hatton+1100
Sam Burns+1200
Cameron Young+1400
Matt Fitzpatrick+1400
Shane Lowry+1800
Corey Conners+1800
Justin Rose+1800
Tommy Fleetwood+2000
Sahith Theegala+3000
Keith Mitchell+3500
Matt Kuchar+4000
Adrian Meronk+4000
Adam Hadwin+4000
Nicolai Hojgaard+4500
Ludvig Aberg+5500
Adam Svensson+5500
Nick Taylor+6000
Aaron Wise+7000
Joseph Bramlett+7000

We list odds from DraftKings, but shop around at other top-rated sportsbooks to find the best prices on your plays.  

Which McIlroy Will Show Up?

While there are a number of top-rated stars in the field, it’s McIlroy that has us the most intrigued. He’s favored this week at +450. He’s ranked No. 3 in the world rankings, and 13th in the FedEx Cup points race.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is we aren’t sure which McIlroy will show up for each tournament. Or even for each round for that matter.

Take last week for example. He was three-under-par in the first round of the Memorial and cruising along. Then came his final hole of the day, the 18th, where he promptly put a triple bogey on the scorecard and plummeted down the leaderboard.

McIlroy spent the next three days trying to recover, and did just that as he was tied for the lead during the final round. But then “average” McIlroy showed up and he struggled over the final 18 holes and wound up T-7.

For this wraparound year, he’s got plenty on the resume including a win, a runnerup, and five overall top-10s.

The victory came very early in the year, as he won the CJ Cup last October. He also had a T-2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Not bad, but still a little under the radar when it comes to Rory-like seasons.

Will he put it all together again this week? We’re betting he brings the “A” game this week ahead of the U.S. Open–especially after not closing the deal last week.

Make Room on Rory’s Bandwagon

We’re jumping back on this week and, from looking at the odds, we’re certainly not alone. McIlroy is a paltry +450 for the simple fact he’s had great success here on two occasions.

RBC Canadian Open Odds & Predictions
Rory McIlroy is a short betting favorite in the RBC Canadian Open, per DraftKings odds. (AP Photo/Martin Dokoupil)

Add in the fact he was T-7 at the PGA Championship a couple of weeks ago and then, despite a horrible last round, still finished T-7 last week at the Memorial, and we’re thinking he’s got plenty of motivation for a three-peat.

We don’t like the fact that his odds are so low, but we do like the fact he’s going to be focused on a couple of huge factors this week.

First, with Jon Rahm (the world No. 1) and Scottie Scheffler (the world No. 2) taking this week off, it’s an ideal spot for McIlroy to make his move, and get closer to that world No. 1 ranking again.

Second, a victory would be the perfect way to head into the year’s third major as it would have him playing impressive golf over a three-tournament stretch.

The fact he closed out last year’s victory here with a final-round 62 certainly can’t hurt his confidence.

Now Comes the Tough Part: Picking a Second Winner

We usually have a few years of results in a tournament to work with when we’re looking to pick winners. Not at this event, as there were two years where players didn’t make the trip into Canada.

With that in mind, we’re going to look at Matthew Fitzpatrick at +1400. Fitzpatrick has already won one RBC event (the RBC Heritage) and he’s the defending U.S. Open champion, so he’s got great vibes heading into this event as well as next week.

For the year, Fitzpatrick is way under the betting radar despite the fact he’s got the victory and two other top-10s. He was T-10 here last year, and wound up T-9 at last week’s Memorial after a horrendous opening-round 76 that left him scrambling just to make the cut. He’s trending very nicely.

The only negative we can think of in this pick is the fact Fitzpatrick does have four missed cuts in this wraparound season including at the PGA Championship a couple of weeks ago.

We’re betting on the fact he will want to be playing his best golf as he heads into the U.S. Open as the defending champion.

Around the Prop Scene

Both prop bets came in for us last week with Rickie Fowler finishing in the top 10, and the tournament going into a playoff.

Let’s add two more to the list this week. We’re looking at Aaron Baddeley to finish in the top 20 at +400. We’ve picked him three times and cashed twice, so we like the run we’re on.

Plus, he’s been T-23 and T-21 in his last two events that featured stronger fields than this week.

We’re also going to look at the winner not being in the final group on Sunday at +165. This one’s got us a little worried for the simple fact if McIlroy is playing well (which he should be) and playing in the last group (which he should be), we can’t win this bet and also win our bet of him winning the tournament.

It’s one of those bets where it would be an ideal spot for us if McIlroy’s in the next-to-last group on Sunday and then goes low and wins the tournament.

About the Author
Bill Bowman

Bill Bowman

Bill Bowman is a Las Vegas-based writer who has more than 45 years of experience in the sports-writing industry. He's spent the past 20-plus years covering the golf scene, including 10 years as a writer and editor with VegasGolfer Magazine. Bowman also contributes to the GolfNow Network of websites and Las Vegas Golf Insider.

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