The Philadelphia Phillies 9-1 win in Game 3 has the team one win away from advancing to the National League Championship Series. Odds have shifted for them, and the odds are bigger now for the Atlanta Braves to defend their championship.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Phils at +105 to win Game 4 on Saturday, with the Braves at -110. BetMGM (+105) and FanDuel (+106) are also offering positive odds on Philadelphia to win Game 4. But the best odds are from DraftKings, at +110. Given the high runs totals in Game 3 and also Game 1, the over for Game 4 is rather high at nine runs.
In the history of best-of-five MLB Playoff series, when the series is tied 1-1, the home team for Games 3-4 win that series 67% of the time. The team ahead 2-1 win, regardless of where they are playing, wins the series 81% of the time.
The Phillies are now priced at -230 via Caesars to win the series, while DraftKings has it at -220, and FanDuel lists the odds at -200. The Braves best odds for a comeback to snatch this series are +185 from Caesars.
The Braves are +1100 to win the World Series, according to Caesars, down from +600 before Game 3. The same sports betting app has the Phillies at +650 (was +1100) to win the World Series.
The Phillies and Braves play Saturday at Citizens Bank Park at 2:07 p.m. ET.
Phillies vs. Braves Game 4 Odds
Yes! We have Game 3 NLDS Braves vs. Phillies odds:
MLB · Sat (10/15) @ 2:07pm ET
| ATL Braves | at | PHI Phillies |
| Citizens Bank Ballpark, Philadelphia, PA | ||
Our Pick: PHI Phillies at -625. Get $1,000 Risk Free Bet from BetMGM
Braves vs. Phillies Pitching Matchup, Game 4 NLDS
Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.34 ERA) vs. Noah Syndergaard (5-2, 4.12 ERA)
Did you realize Noah Syndergaard was on a postseason roster? You are forgiven if you didn’t. The former Mets ace has gradually worked his way back from surgery and made 24 starts in 2022 after not throwing a baseball in the majors for almost two years. His famous fastball has been clocked at as high as 97 mph, but the righty only produced four quality starts after being traded to the Phillies in August. Syndergaard threw 16 pitches in relief in the Phils Game 1 loss to Atlanta.
It’s likely that Philadelphia manager Rob Thompson intends to roll Syndergaard out for a maximum of three innings, depending on his pitch count, following with a string of relief pitchers. The Phillies bullpen has been stellar against Atlanta, and if the team does clinch this series at whatever point, it’s going to come after a significant contribution from the arms in the pen.
Morton makes his debut this postseason after some speculated that he should have toed the rubber for Game 3. The lanky righthander’s heartbeat seems to slow for the postseason: in 16 starts he’s allowed two runs or less in 11 of them. Morton has a way of lulling batters to sleep with a mixture of “just fast enough” pitches that dip and dive out of reach. He
Philadelphia Phillies’ Rhys Hoskins (17) celebrates with Bryce Harper (3) after hitting a three-run home run during the third inning in Game 3 of baseball’s National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves, Friday, Oct. 14, 2022, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Braves, Phillies NLDS Game 4 Prediction, Pick
The beauty of a Game 4 with the road team down 2-1, is that all they need is a win and the momentum swings wildly in their favor. If the Braves find a way to put some crooked numbers on the board Saturday, they play a Game 5 back in Atlanta, and well, that would feel pretty good.
But the Phillies lineup has no holes in this series. Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber, Jean Segura, and JT Realmuto are all hitting well. Braves pitchers have been unable to avoid the big inning: Philly has scored multiple runs in five innings, and Atlanta only once.
- Dansby Swanson is 8-for-18 (.444) against Syndergaard in his career.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. is 4-for-10 (.400) with a homer off Syndergaard.
- Bryce Harper hits .417 (10-for-24) with three extra-base hits against Charlie Morton.
- Jean Segura has a pair of homers off Morton in 62 ABs.
- Kyle Schwarber is 4-for-15 with 2 HR off Atlanta’s Game 4 starter Charlie Morton.
PICK:
In the last 15 years when a home team was up 2-1 and could close out a series, that team has won 84% of the time. The Phillies hung nine big runs on the Braves on Friday. As Hall of Fame announcer Ernie Harwell used to say, “They’ve had their hitting shoes on.”
We don’t think the Phillies are going to change shoes: we like Philly to defeat the Braves and close out this series. Bet the moneyline: a $100 winning bet with DraftKings pays $110.
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