The San Diego Padres have knotted the National League Championship Series at a game apiece after an 8-5 win in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Odds for the series winner are now even, with the Padres and Philadelphia Phillies both priced at -110 by Caesars. That means the teams are basically even bets as far as the oddsmakers are concerned.
The Padres are -115 to win Game 3, and the Phillies are -105, according to Caesars sportsbook. Game 3 will be played Friday night in Philadelphia.
The Phillies and Padres are each given +380 odds to win the 2022 World Series. The winner of the NLCS will face either the Houston Astros or New York Yankees in the Fall Classic.
Prior to the MLB Playoffs, the Phillies had the second-longest odds to win the World Series (+3000), behind only the Seattle Mariners. Philadelphia upset the Cardinals in the Wild Card round and the Braves in the NL Division Series. On Tuesday, the Phillies won Game 1 by the score of 2-0.
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Phillies vs. Padres, Game 3 NLCS Odds
NLCS Schedule: Phillies at Padres
The schedule for the 2022 National League Championship Series.
- Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 18 at San Diego
- Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 19 at San Diego
- Game 3: Friday, Oct. 21 at Philadelphia
- Game 4: Saturday, Oct. 22 at Philadelphia
- Game 5: Sunday, Oct. 23 at Philadelphia
- Game 2: Monday, Oct. 24 at San Diego
- Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 25 at San Diego
The ALCS will be televised by FS1, and you can hear it on ESPN Radio.
Padres Five-Run Outburst Erases Four-Run Deficit
For about 40 minutes and four innings, there was a large frog in the throats of the San Diego Padres and their fans. That’s because the Fightin’ Phils had a 4-0 lead and were threatening to assume a 2-0 lead in the NLCS.
But just like they did last Saturday when they eliminated the Dodgers, the Padres embarked on an epic five-run scoring binge and took control of this game. The Padres sent 11 batters to the plate in the fifth inning, knocked Phils’ starter Aaron Nola out of the game, and sent their fans into a thunderous ovation unheard in San Diego in years.
Overshadowed in the offensive barrage that decided this game was the effort by starter Blake Snell, who weathered a strange four-run inning in the second and pitched five, never again allowing a tally. The Padres bided their time, and with their legs (Ha-Seong Kim), clutch bats (Juan Soto and Brandon Drury), and ironclad bullpen (Nick Martinez and Josh Hader), they claimed an 8-5 win and are now going to The City of Brotherly Love seeking at least one win to get back home field advantage.
Caesars sportsbook has the Padres as slight favorites to win Game 3, at -115 odds. You’ll have to bet $100 to win $105 if you think the Phillies will win.
Phillies vs. Padres Pitching Matchup, Game 3 NLCS
Joe Musgrove (1-0, 1.38 ERA in postseason) vs. Ranger Suárez (0-0, 2.70 ERA in postseason)
The most important thing to think about when evaluating the Phillies for Game 3 is how starting pitcher Ranger Suárez will handle the moment. In his first career postseason start in the NL Division Series against Atlanta, Suárez walked five batters and only retired 10 batters. Will he have a slow heartbeat in front of the always-feverish Philly fans? Or will he look shaky again?
In his only start against the Padres in 2022, Suárez allowed two earned runs in 7 1/3 innings. But his walk rate is a problem, and Suárez is not a strikeout pitcher. That means the Padres can focus on putting the ball in play, which could lead to big innings again.
Musgrove has been very good in his two playoff starts: two earned runs in 13 innings, with only two runs scoring. His slider and cut fastball are producing a .170 average by opposing batters in the postseason, with just three extra-base hits, all doubles. Musgrove has a 13-4 K-BB rate this postseason. His presence in Game 3, gives the Padres an edge, and that’s why you see the oddsmakers leaning toward the road Padres to win on Friday.
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Padres, Phillies NLCS Game 3 Pick
The over went way over in Game 2. That despite Snell and Nola starting the game. We think Musgrove will be on point in Game 3, but Suárez is a big question mark. That means San Diego will have a better chance to put up numbers. We suggest a play on the Over in Game 3, which is listed at 7.5 runs (-115) from Caesars.
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