Saturday’s MLB Over/Under Bet: Pineda Continues Comeback Run
Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies
First pitch: 11:05 a.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Michael Pineda (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Jake Arrieta (1-0, 1.50 ERA)
The middle affair in this three-game interleague set is a prime example of leaning on a starting pitcher before the oddsmakers catch up. Of course, that would be in reference to the presence of Pineda and getting him in an over/under this high in a National League setting.
People forget: This is someone that could be as dominant as anyone in baseball when healthy. While he did get a little inconsistent during his final years with the Yankees before landing on the shelf, a lot of that could be attributed to bad luck. Pineda had to deal with a .332 batting average on balls put in play in 2015, a .339 BABIP the season after, and a .309 BABIP most recently during the ‘17 campaign.
Pineda unfortunately ended up on the sidelines with Tommy John surgery for a year and a half but looked like he didn’t miss a beat in his first major league start since. Though he only went four innings, Pineda shined in scattering just two baserunners, while striking out five. He was one of my top three sleepers entering the season, so I’m already sold on him continuing a successful comeback. And his pitch count should start to inflate in his second turn.
Plus, Pineda has had notable success in his interleague road assignments. The 6-foot-7 right-hander has made six starts in NL parks, churning out a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP to go with a 43-7 K/BB ratio in those games, spanning 35.1 innings.
The Phillies’ lineup has looked dangerous, as expected, but Pineda is capable of keeping them at bay. Don’t forget that some regulars might be on the bench, too, with this being a day game following a night game scenario.
And then of course there is Arrieta, who is usually a constant when taking the hill at home. Even his switch to hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park last year didn’t phase his historically strong home work, as he still easily bested his performance on the road with a 3.64 ERA and .238 batting average against in his starts in Philadelphia. Play: WIN UNDER 8.5 (-110)
Yesterday’s Result: Rays-Giants Under 7.5 (WIN)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 3-6, -3.8 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 uni
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2019 MLB (1-0-0) Overall Record: 3-6-1