Pitt vs. Mississippi State Odds, Trends, Betting Picks: A Play on March Madness First Four Total

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The latter of Tuesday’s First Four March Madness doubleheader features two programs that enjoyed breakthrough seasons. The Mississippi State Bulldogs and Pitt Panthers meet in Dayton, Ohio, to determine who will enter the Midwest Region as the No. 11 seed and take on No. 6-seeded Iowa State. Of course, the start of the First Four means that bets will be made, and we are here to break down Pitt vs. Mississippi State odds, trends, and betting picks.

Here, we will include our favorite bet for this game and some prop bets for the night. This night serves as an appetizer for Thursday, when March Madness excitement ramps up. Pitt vs. Mississippi State is sure to be a great game, and with some action riding on the game, you can make tonight even more enjoyable.

Pitt vs. Mississippi State Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

When you go to make your Pitt vs. Mississippi State picks for tonight, make sure you are aware of the odds and lines offered from several top US mobile sportsbooks to ensure you get the best number for your pick. You may also grab multiple sportsbook betting bonuses so you can build a nice bankroll for the start of March Madness.

Below, we have included the odds and lines from some of our favorite mobile sportsbooks.

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How Pitt, Mississippi State Made it to March Madness

Mississippi State started the season strong, winning its first 11 games, including against Marquette, but they stumbled in SEC play and finished the season with a respectful 21-12 record. Meanwhile, Pitt was the opposite, as they struggled to start the season, losing three of its first four games, but they were able to enjoy beating up a poor ACC conference and picked up enough key wins to make it into the play-in games.

Both teams saw massive turnarounds from last season, and the future is bright at both schools. However, one team will be sent home before the fun of March Madness really begins. That stinks for that team, but it makes for competitive basketball, which makes it better for the audience, and us bettors.

Check updated numbers: March Madness odds

Pitt vs. Mississippi State Betting Trends

Pitt

  • Pitt is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
  • The total has gone OVER in six of Pitt’s last seven games
  • Pitt is 1-4 SU in its last five games against the SEC
  • Pitt is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games

Mississippi State

  • Miss St is 1-4 ATS in its last five games
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Miss St’s last five games
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Miss St’s last five games against the ACC
  • Miss St is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games played in March

Pitt Panthers (22-11, 22-10-1 ATS)

In their last game, Pitt got throttled by Duke in the ACC tournament, allowing the Blue Devils to shoot 62% from the field and 42% from deep, and they gave up 27 assists, which set an ACC Tournament record.

On paper, Pitt’s defense is much better than its previous performance indicates, but they had the pleasure of playing through a terrible conference. They are ranked 142nd in KenPom‘s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rating, and they are giving up 70.5 points per game and 13.2 assists per game. Luckily, they are going up against a brutal Mississippi State offense, but the Bulldogs have the guys who can take over a game like this, which should scare Pitt.

Offensively, they’re going to have a tough challenge against Mississippi State’s defense, but the Panthers offense ranks 24th in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rating, and they are a very effective shooting team with a stable of reliable shooters.

Jamarius Burton and Blake Hinson each average over 15 points per game, with Hinson having a 38.4% three-point shooting percentage. Even with John Hugley going down early in the season, Pitt revamped its scheme, and that is where they started to turn it around.

Pittsburgh's Jamarius Burton
Jamarius Burton and Pittsburgh are underdogs vs. Mississippi State, per First Four March Madness odds (AP Photo/Michael Caterina)

This offense is streaky, as is this whole team, but we have seen this offense score in bunches, even against top-tier defensive teams.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12, 16-16-1 ATS)

Although Mississippi State may have the best defense left standing, they certainly have the worst offense in the tournament, as they are last in the nation in three-point shooting percentage (26.6%) and rank toward the bottom in shooting efficiency (0.998), effective field goal percentage (46.9%), and free-throw percentage (64.7%).

The latter of those stats may be the most important come tournament time, as free throws are crucial at the end of games. Time and time again, we have seen teams dominate the actual game, but they simply cannot convert on free throws, and they let the game slip away.

Now, this team clearly runs on its defense. They rank 6th in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rating, only allow 61 points per game, and opposing teams shoot only 30.8% from deep against them.

For Mississippi State to win, they will need to find some offensive talent outside of leading-scorer Tolu Smith. It would be different if the Bulldogs could surround Smith with talented three-point shooters and pure scorers, but that is not the case, and this team will win by simply stopping you from scoring.

Pitt vs. Mississippi State Betting Pick

Neither one of these teams made a deep run in their conference tournaments, so fatigue is not much of a factor in this matchup. However, the mismatch of both teams’ strengths complicates picking a side in this matchup.

With Mississippi State being run through its defense and Pitt with its explosive offense, this will be a matchup of which strength is better than the other. While it is usually wise to back the offensive-minded team, Mississippi State’s defense is one of the best in the country, and we saw what happened in their last game when Pitt got overwhelmed.

Based on everything that has been said, it would probably be a surprise for us to take the over. Still, with Pitt’s size, they can force Mississippi State to stretch the court and take more perimeter and three-point shots, which gives this offense a chance at positive regression. With Mississippi State’s defense being so intimidating down low, Pitt will like to keep the ball outside and take many more shots.

Although watching the Bulldogs try and play offense is a drag, the over has a lot of value here, and who doesn’t love rooting for points?

Pick: Over 133.5 via FanDuel Sportsbook

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Pitt vs. Mississippi State Props

If you do not like the moneyline, spread, or total for this game, there are always props avliable, and we are here to give our favorite Pitt vs. Mississippi State prop bet.

Dashawn Davis Over 0.5 Made Threes (-190, DraftKings)

Although Mississippi State is a poor shooting team, Davis has been one of the most reliable options on offense for the Bulldogs. While he is only shooting 34.3% from deep this season, he averages the second-most minutes per game on this team, he is shooting just under four threes per game, and with this matchup, Mississippi State is going to need to take more three-point shots, which Davis has proven he is their best chance.

Mississippi State also has a significant advantage on the offensive glass, giving this team more possessions, which equals more opportunity. With Pitt dealing with an injury to Fede Federiko, this defense may be worse tonight, and that gives this Mississippi State offense more juice, making this prop extra valuable tonight. The odds are not great, but adding this to a nice little parlay tonight can beef up the odds and increase your payout.

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How to Watch Pitt vs. Mississippi State

Date: Tuesday, March 14, 2023

Tipoff: 9:10 p.m. ET (after SE Missouri St. vs. Texas A&M-CC)

Location: UD Arena— Dayton, OH

Where to Watch: truTV

 

About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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