Premier League Title, Top-Four, and Relegation Futures Odds: Arsenal the Favorite

Following Arsenal’s win over Manchester United on Sunday, there’s a clear betting favorite to win the 2022-23 Premier League, and it’s not either of the teams (Manchester City and Liverpool) that entered the season as the favorites.

Instead, oddsmakers’ clear favorites are Arsenal. The Gunners are on pace for a historic point total after piling up 50 points on a record of 16-2-1 through the first half of the season. Trailing Arsenal are Manchester City (45 points through 20 matches), and Newcastle and Manchester United (both of whom have 39 points through 20 games played).

FiveThirtyEight currently gives Arsenal a 63% chance to win the league for the first time since the 2003-04 season, while City has a 34% chance. Below are the current Premier League futures odds for the title, the battle to finish top-four (and secure an all-important place in next year’s Champions League), and the relegation race.

2022-23 Premier League Futures Odds

Oddsmakers see the fight for the championship coming down to Arsenal and City, who have finished first in the Premier League four of the past five years.

The other contenders — if you can call them that — include ManU, Newcastle, Tottenham, and Liverpool.

Premier League Champion Betting Favorites

Arsenal (-125 at BetRivers)

Arsenal still offers good value across the board. Whether bettors want to take them at -125 at BetRivers or -150 at DraftKings, it’s still possible to get the Gunners at a price that promises a solid payout. Plenty has been written in recent weeks about Arsenal’s title bid.

The case for Arsenal includes how well this club has played since it lost Gabriel Jesus to an injury he suffered in Qatar (they’ve won four of five since returning from the World Cup break).

With Martin Odegaard emerging this season as one of the best midfielders in Europe, Bukayo Saka remaining a massive threat on the right side, and a vastly improved defense from a year ago, Arsenal looks complete and there does not appear to be anything fluky about their success to this point.

In terms of expected goals, Arsenal are second-best in the league, and they also currently boast the lowest xGA (expected goals allowed) in the Premier League.

It will also help Arsenal’s case that, unlike City, they’re not competing in the Champions League, and they do not have another Europa League match until March.

Anyone betting against Arsenal at this point is banking on their lack of championship pedigree in recent seasons and ignoring how well Mikel Arteta’s team has played since August.

Manchester City (+130 at BetRivers)

The two things Pep Guardiola’s team has in its favor are its recent title experience and its enviable squad depth. But with three losses and three draws in its first 20 matches, City — who are currently on pace to finish the season with around 86 points — are clearly not quite the team that raised the EPL trophy with 93 points last season or the ’18-19 group that finished with 99 points.

Since EPL play resumed following the World Cup break, City have dropped points to Everton (1-1 draw on Dec. 31) and Manchester United (2-1 loss on Jan. 14), and they trailed Tottenham 2-0 at halftime on Jan. 19, though they did rally to win that one 4-2.

Still, this team has looked vulnerable over the last month, and the recent offensive inconsistency (City scored just one goal apiece in back-to-back-to-back EPL matches on Dec. 31, Jan. 5, and Jan. 14) is a red flag, even if we’re still talking about a team with easily the most goals in the league on the season.

If you’re backing Manchester City, it’s because of how potent they are when they’re clicking. Look no further than their last 135 minutes against Tottenham and Wolves, when they scored four second-half goals against Spurs, followed by a 3-0 win over Wolves thanks to an Erling Haaland hat trick in their next match.

Premier League Champion Longshots

Manchester United (+5000 at DraftKings)

Erik ten Hag’s team is playing well, and it hung with Arsenal until the dying minutes on Sunday. But ManU have a ton of ground to make up to catch Arsenal, and they’d have to not only play near-perfect soccer the rest of the way but have Arsenal drop a lot of points to get into position to win the league. Most ManU fans would be thrilled with a solid top-four finish, which is well within reach, but first place feels virtually out of reach.

Newcastle (+10000 at DraftKings)

The second-biggest story of the season in the Premier League is the success of Newcastle, whether they make a title push or “merely” finish top four. After all, this time one calendar year ago, Newcastle were just hoping they would finish the 2021-22 season above the relegation zone.

Newcastle have the pieces to finish top four (there’s a reason they’re currently as heavily favored as -150 on FanDuel), but it’s hard to see them closing the 11-point gap on Arsenal.

Premier League Top-4 Odds

While the title race remains open — if not wide-open — the top-four race does not appear to be terribly interesting. With Arsenal and City both near-locks to at least finish fourth place or better, the question is which two teams (between Newcastle, Manchester United, Spurs, and Liverpool, who are currently in ninth place) grab third and fourth place.

Liverpool’s pedigree makes it somewhat understandable why they’re still given a solid shot, but it’s head-scratching to see them as a bigger top-four favorite than Spurs, who are seven points better in the standings (though Liverpool does have two games in hand). Speaking of the standings, those are worth a quick look. Below is the EPL table as it stands on Jan. 26:

Premier League 2022-23 Standings

Despite Brighton, Fulham, and Brentford all sitting ahead of Liverpool in the standings, the Reds are the one team outside the current top five in the table that is getting oddsmakers’ respect.

Premier League 2022-23 Top-Four Odds

Premier League Relegation Odds

The bottom of the Premier League table is crowded, to say the least — 13th-place Nottingham Forest (21 points) is just six points ahead of current bottom-dweller Southampton (15). For that reason, eight teams have odds shorter than 10-to-1 to end up as one of the three clubs who will be relegated to the League Championship for the 2023-24 campaign.

The current bottom three clubs — Southampton, Everton (15 points), and Bournemouth (17) — are strongly favored to finish in a dreaded bottom-three spot, but the likes of Wolves (17), West Ham (18), Leeds United (18), and Leicester City (18) don’t have much breathing room.

Any team could give itself quite a bit of breathing room with just one good week of results. With 18 or 19 games remaining for each of the squads in this mix, it’s hard to make any predictions right now on who is most likely to drop from the top flight.

Read more: 2026 World Cup futures odds