Premier League Title, Top-Four, and Relegation Odds: Can Arsenal Hold off Manchester City?

The Premier League title race is down to Arsenal and Manchester City. That much has been true since the halfway point of the season, but it’s undeniable as of March 30.

Going into Matchday 29 this weekend, Arsenal (69 points through 28 matches) have a comfortable lead on City (61 points through 27 matches), with 10 games remaining for the Gunners and 11 for Pep Guardiola’s team.

Four teams — Newcastle, Tottenham, Liverpool, and Brighton — all have a shot to finish in third or fourth place, but even third-place Manchester United (50 points through 26 matches) is too far behind the favorites to make a title run.

Despite Arsenal’s significant cushion atop the table, oddsmakers are not yet ready to rule out City. Arsenal are -150 on DraftKings (implied probability of 60%), compared to Manchester City at +130 (implied probability of 43.5%). FiveThirtyEight gives Arsenal a 56% chance to win the league, while estimating that City have a 44% chance.

Below are the current Premier League futures odds for the title, the battle to finish top-four (and secure an all-important place in next year’s Champions League), and the relegation race.

2022-23 Premier League Futures Odds

Oddsmakers see the fight for the championship coming down to Arsenal and City. The latter have finished first in the Premier League four of the past five years.

Arsenal fans have not seen their team raise the EPL trophy since 2003-04, but they’re well on their way.

Premier League Champion Betting Favorites

Arsenal (-150 at DraftKings)

Arsenal appeared to be stumbling at the wrong time in early February. After a 1-0 loss to City in the FA Cup on Jan. 27, Mikel Arteta’s side was shut out in a shocking loss to Everton on Feb. 4, then drew Brentford on Feb. 11, and was blown out by City 3-1 at home on Feb. 15.

Just when the title race looked completely up in the air – City were in first place on goal differential after that win at the Emirates – Arsenal rebounded. Arteta & Co. have won their last six in a row, by a combined score of 19-5, recording three shutouts in that span.

Their final 10 opponents (listed below) make it hard to imagine them running away from City, but they’ve got a few things — besides their outstanding current form — working in their favor: Gabriel Jesus has returned to the lineup, appearing in each of Arsenal’s last three matches.

It also helps, at least for the purpose of winning the Premier League, that they’ve been eliminated from the Europa League and the FA Cup.

Manchester City, on the other hand, have a tricky stretch ahead, both domestically and in the Champions League, as they face Liverpool on Saturday, then have four games – against Southampton, Bayern Munich (x2), and Leicester City – from April 8-19. While City are still pursuing three trophies (EPL, Champions League, and FA Cup), Arsenal have only their EPL slate to navigate.

Arsenal remaining schedule (ET)

• Leeds United (home) April 1, 10:00 a.m.
• Liverpool (away) April 9, 11:30 a.m.
• West Ham (away) April 16, 9:00 a.m.
• Southampton (home) April 21, 3:00 p.m.
• Manchester City (away) April 26, 3:00 p.m.
• Chelsea (home) April 29, 12:30 p.m.
• Newcastle (away) May 7, 11:30 a.m.
• Brighton (home) May 13, 10:00 a.m.
• Nottingham Forest (away) May 20, 10:00 a.m.
• Wolves (home) May 28, 11:30 a.m.

Manchester City (+140 at BetRivers)

City have big advantages on Arsenal when it comes to experience in the title-deciding matches ahead and squad depth, but, as outlined above, they’ve got an uphill climb.

It doesn’t help that they still have to contend with big games against Bayern in the Champions League quarterfinals (April 11, April 19) and Sheffield United in the FA Cup semis on April 22.

If Man City are unable to rally for their third consecutive EPL title — and fifth in the last six years — they’ll rue that February stretch when Arsenal dropped points against Brentford, Everton, and City. But City themselves lost to Spurs on Feb. 5 and drew Nottingham Forest on Feb. 18. Based on Arsenal’s form in the month since that skid, that may have been City’s last, best chance to close the gap.

Premier League Top-4 Odds

While two top-four spots are already locked up — FiveThirtyEight gives both Arsenal and Man City a greater-than-99% chance at UCL qualification — the race for the final two spots in next year’s Champions League promises to remain compelling until the final day of the season.

Third-place Manchester United is a heavy favorite to finish no worse than fourth, but five teams (if you count Chelsea) remain alive in the top-four race: Newcastle, Tottenham, Liverpool, and Brighton have legit shots. Chelsea have enough firepower that fans shouldn’t rule them out, but their top-4 odds are +4000 or longer, depending on the book.

If the season ended today, Tottenham would technically join Arsenal, City, and Manchester United, but Newcastle and Liverpool (both have played 26 games) notably have two games in hand on Spurs (28 games played).

Arsenal and Manchester City are both locks to finish top-four, and Manchester United are heavily favored, but oddsmakers see the final two spots in the 2023-24 Champions League as there for the taking for Newcastle, Tottenham, Liverpool, and Brighton.

Premier League 2022-23 Top-Four Odds

Newcastle Top-4 Odds (+120 on BetRivers)

Eddie Howe’s team are great value at +120. After a troubling stretch in February in which they struggled to score (but still managed to earn several key draws), they’ve gotten a massive boost from forward Alexander Isak in recent weeks. The 23-year-old Swede has three goals in his team’s last two matches — both wins.

With six goals on the season in just 10 starts, Isak looks like the complement Newcastle needs alongside Miguel Almiron up top, as long as he can stay on the pitch.

Tottenham Top-4 Odds (+230 on FanDuel)

Books differ strongly on whether Liverpool or Tottenham are the biggest threat to Newcastle. With Spurs having sacked Antonio Conte (seemingly per his wishes) this week, it’s anyone’s guess how they’ll look down the stretch under interim manager Cristian Stellini.

It will help their cause that two of their next three opponents — they face Everton on April 3 and Bournemouth on April 15  — are at the bottom of the table. They face a tough test between those matches, however, when they host Brighton on April 8.

Liverpool Top-4 Odds (+210 on DraftKings)

The Reds are by far the most experienced of the teams they’re battling for fourth place. But their next three matches are brutal, as they travel to both Manchester City and Chelsea before hosting Arsenal.

Liverpool is expected to welcome back Luis Diaz this weekend, but they’re still big underdogs — +450 on DraftKings — at Etihad Stadium.

It’s easy to see Liverpool staying in the mix until the last few games of the season, but the daunting slate ahead, as well as the team’s inconsistency all season long, makes it hard to see them overtaking Newcastle, barring a massive collapse by the latter.

Brighton Top-4 Odds (+500 at Caesars)

Despite Brighton staying right on the favorites’ heels all season, they remain a big longshot for oddsmakers. That’s understandable considering the lack of household names on their roster. At the same time, though, this is a well-managed squad (Roberto de Zerbi has been impressive since replacing Graham Potter in September), with a couple of studs in the midfield in 21-year-old Ecuadorian Moises Caicedo and 24-year-old Argentine Alexis Mac Allister.

If Brighton had the cache of one of the bigger clubs, oddsmakers would probably have them at +300 or shorter, which makes them a tempting option for anyone interested in staking a half-unit on a longshot that has lost fewer games this season than both Liverpool and Tottenham.

Premier League Relegation Odds

A slew of teams are close enough to the bottom of the table that their fans will be celebrating as long as they finish in 17^th place or better. A quick look at the table shows that everyone below 11^th-place Aston Villa is within four points of last-place Southampton. At this point, it’s hard to say when any of the following teams will feel safe from the threat of relegation.

Oddsmakers consider four teams — Southampton, Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, and Everton — in legitimate danger of dropping to the Championship for next season. On DraftKings, each of those teams is +175 or shorter to be relegated.

After those clubs, five others (all of whom are +300 or longer to be relegated) have to finish strong to remain in the top flight next season. That group consists of Leeds United, Wolves, West Ham, Leicester City, and Crystal Palace.

Recent form has been particularly concerning for Crystal Palace (losers of four of five), Nottingham Forest (three losses and two draws in their last five) and Leicester City (losers of four of five).

Note: The table below does not feature relegation odds from Caesars, which only offers odds to stay up.

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